Welcome to One Finite Planet.
This site published research into topics pages as ‘webpapers‘, which means news and new information, is seldom reported as new individual pages, but normally as updates to existing content. If a page is of interest, that page will be updated for new developments as they occur.
Why the site exists, the philosophy behind content, the structure and how to find content on this site, are all available here.
Topics
Population: We live on a planet where the total amount of life has halved in the last 500 million years and is slowly headed towards total extinction, yet the human population has been growing throughout recorded history. Does it stop now we are at peak child, and what would population stability mean? Why has every other species had a long-term stable or falling population the whole time?
Environment: Our planet has only been suitable to support human life for the most recent 10% of its life, how much longer will our One Finite Planet support life? What real role does CO2 play in determining climate, and is climate change an existential threat or merely an inconvenience?
Influence: No, they don’t want to sell your data, it’s worse.
There is no such thing as free lunch media. In the end, it is us who pay the media companies.
Humans are the species with accessories! Continually improving tools refined from generation to generation are the clearest difference between humans and other species.
EVs, phones, homes and clothes are all tools, and tools give humans ‘superpowers’ and define societies.
Population: yes we have overpopulation but this one is full of surprises, includong surprising economic implictions.
The ‘poster child’ of environment discussion breaks out into its own topic,
Beyond the climate, the popular issues of habitat destruction, extinctions, and plastic waste, there are still suprises that are overlooked, as well as predictions and analyss on covid-19/pandemics that may surprise.
remember when a photograph was proof? Is a video still evidence? What
can we still be certain of in the world of fake news and outrage media
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut elit tellus, luctus nec ullamcorper mattis, pulvinar dapibus leo.
, is about the likely future outcomes. In the first section, the outcomes are those likely in response to challenges (or “threats” in SWAT terminology), while those in the second section are pure opportunities. section 2, “opportunities”.
Continually updated evolving book on a set of 8 topic groups, that i have found to constain surprises, and key insights into the likely future.
wraps around.
This site started in 2015, for reasons outlined in ‘why’.
Topics here have evolved to now be grouped under threats and opportunities. All contain subjects I have found to surprise, give insight into our future, or both.
, and have evolved to cover subjects i have found
the future
Not advocacy of what people should do, nor outrage about what people are doing, but a collection of observations that i find either suprising, revealing about the future, or both.
Topics and Subtopics.
BYD Atto 3, aka Yuan Plus: 3rd bestselling EV globally.
As of March 2023, this EV from the BYD brand that few have heard of, has risen to 3rd bestselling EV globally behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, and could this year overtake the Model 3.
Despite this level of sales success, as the Atto 3, as it is known outside China, arrives in new markets, reviewers often struggle to communicate the significance. As the international bestselling model of the BYD brand responsible for 6 of the 10 top bestselling EVs globally.
The two speed EV transition: Manufactures vs consumers. (part 1)
It is easy to underestimate how long it will take consumers to transition to EVs, and equally easy to underestimate how urgently manufactures need to transition to avoid collapse.
Two transition speeds? Yes, brands will switch to EVs in their showroom by 2025 or risk failure, but in what seems like a complete disconnect, there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road past 2050.
Around 10.5 million Electric Vehicles were delivered in 2022, which resulted in less than 0.7% of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles (ICEVs) being replaced by EVs during 2022, even those EVs represented 13% of new vehicles sales.
The data shows that new car showrooms transition to EVs 20x faster than the roads, and vehicle manufacture transition 20x faster then the public, and while ICEVs will likely still around beyond 2050, vehicle makers that can’t switch fast enough could collapse by 2030, bringing radical economic change.
Influence: No, they don’t want to sell your data, it’s worse.
I recently read another comment containing the ‘I don’t want google getting more of my data to sell’ and it reminded me of the question, ‘why is your data valuable?’, and the common myth that Facebook and Google etc want your data so they can sell it.
They don’t want to sell your data, but the reality, is more sinister: they want the power to change your thinking.
A different perspective: Humans maybe the greatest threat to life on Earth but also the only hope.
The title ‘one finite planet’ can be mistaken to be yet another proclamation of how we live on this amazing planet which could even be unique, and we humans are foolishly placing it all at risk. Boring.
No. Instead, the perspective is we are living on a planet that is naturally hostile to humans, where nature dictates only a limited total amount of life, can only exist for a limited time, and that time is almost at an end. When seen from this perspective, even the environment mission changes from just not interfering, to the more complex task of tackling the challenge of overcoming nature, while yes, quite importantly, not bringing life to an early end in the process.
EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?
The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain ‘cool’, or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right.
Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the ‘legacy’ automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla.
Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is ‘cool’, shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.
Who makes a profit from EVs? Does everyone but Tesla and BYD make a loss?
Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price?
This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to “Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?” and “Why make vehicles at a loss?“.
Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive from 2021 is a likely contender.
Welcome to One Finite World. As opposed to blog posts that convey a persons thoughts at one point in time, most pages here continue to evolve to be improved and updated over time, and are explorations of ideas being examined to discover answers, by career analyst of future trends with a background in science.me to One Finite World. These pages are explorations of a variety of topics from a futurist perspective, and unlike blog posts, have their content updated and improved over time.
The pages are not “this is what I think”, but more “here is the information I have, so what is the answer, and am I missing things?”.
What is here that might be of interest? And how to find it? The summaries, surprises and myths are of potential interest to everyone, while other content is more specialised. The search box and categories to right may help, but the contents below intended to best facilitatinallow finding anything and is organised from general interest through to the more specific as the intended best path to navigate to find content of interest, with the most common theme be .
Population. My journey to understanding population and overpopulation.
- Normal Population growth mirrors what happens with cells within our bodies, there is growth to maturity, growth for repair, but otherwise, there is stability.
- Our recent population explosion was not normal, and resulting in an unsustainable population without major concessions to how we live.
- We are at peak child and approaching Peak Humanity:
- We have only one finite planet, and it is already full of life. Further growth of the human population, requires a reduction in the population of other life.
- Further population growth will erode quality of life for all but a small elite group.
- —
- We have only one finite world, which can only host a finite amount of life. One of the biggest questions is how much of the life we share the planet with should be other humans, and how much do we leave for other living things?
- Is increasing the percentage of life that is us humans essential for economic growth, or from a certain point, does it means a smaller share each of an increasingly damaged planet?
- Does the qualify of life suffer for all without the wealth to increase their share?
- A summary of the findings from exploration of the population explosion, the impact of future population, and how this elephant in the room taboo topic is not only, as discussed by David Attenborough, critical to the natural world.
- The economic future as the battle intensifies between those running the humanity equivalent to a chicken farm, and the masses or ‘caged hens’ producing the golden eggs.
- Key highlights and surprises from deeper explorations of contemporary topics such as:
Will Electric Cars Change the Balance of Economic and Military Power In the World?
Covid-19, and how long will vaccinations against Covid-19 be required?- Social media uses the power of AI to increase polarisation, dissatisfaction and outrage. Why?
The Earth has only recently supported life on land, and that support will not continue for much longer..- Why do CO2 levels create a climate crisis now, when it was not a problem back when there were dinosaurs?
UFOs, are real! Now even Obama, Republicans and the current US government are spilling the beans.
- In depth explorations of a range of contemporary topics for those interested in the topics:
- Population, Overpopulation, and the 300 year population explosion.
- Polarisation and Conflict, and Left vs Right: The ideology of conflict and we all get along in a world where polarisation has now been monetized.
- Wealth Creation and Distribution: Earths almost 8 billion needs food, clothing, housing and more.
- Electric Cars and the changes to society once stop being too expensive for mainstream buyers.
- ‘Posts’ that reflect a chronology of events:
Trump and the 2020 US election.- Covid-19, from first being alarmed back in Jan 2020 through an observation of the pandemic from Australia.
- Science and Technology Explorations.
- Science, from science background and relativity made simple through to theories as the cutting edge.
- Technology, ‘Free Technology‘ and Robotics.
- Electric Vehicles.
- Product Reviews: Of potential interest to those looking for information on a product I have reviewed.
“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”
Attributed to Kenneth Boulding in: United States. Congress. House (1973)