Welcome to One Finite Planet.
This site contains ‘webpapers‘: exploratory papers for the web on topics and subtopics, with a different perspective that follows from the reality of existing on one finite planet: with finite space and time.
As this is neither news site nor blog, most new content is in the form of updates to existing pages/webpapers, As most new information is in the form of updates to an existing page, new pages/webpaper are rare. This different approach results in pages with more information in one place, and a more in depth look than typical blog posts. Use of the ‘page contents’ may help when information on a section of a page/webpaper is sought, as pages can be long.
Topics are interlinked, so some explorations cross boundaries, but the goal is to form a cohesive “blook“, with each topic analogous to a chapter.
Site navigation can be by drilling through topics, using the ‘topics and subtopics’ dropdown to the right, or the search box.
The topics are chosen as those where I, as an analyst and futurist feel I can contribute, or have found surprises beyond those already on the web.
Topics
Population: We live on a planet where the total amount of life has halved in the last 500 million years and is slowly headed towards total extinction, yet the human population has been growing throughout recorded history. Does it stop now we are at peak child, and what would population stability mean? Why has every other species had a long-term stable or falling population the whole time?
Environment: Our planet has only been suitable to support human life for the most recent 10% of its life, how much longer will our One Finite Planet support life? What real role does CO2 play in determining climate?
Influence: No, they don’t want to sell your data, it’s worse.
Continually improving tools passed from generation to generation are the clearest difference between humans and other species.
EVs, phones, homes and clothes are all tools, and tools give humans ‘superpowers’ and define societies.
Population: yes we have overpopulation but this one is full of surprises, includong surprising economic implictions.
The ‘poster child’ of environment discussion breaks out into its own topic,
Beyond the climate, the popular issues of habitat destruction, extinctions, and plastic waste, there are still suprises that are overlooked, as well as predictions and analyss on covid-19/pandemics that may surprise.
remember when a photograph was proof? Is a video still evidence? What
can we still be certain of in the world of fake news and outrage media
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, is about the likely future outcomes. In the first section, the outcomes are those likely in response to challenges (or “threats” in SWAT terminology), while those in the second section are pure opportunities. section 2, “opportunities”.
Continually updated evolving book on a set of 8 topic groups, that i have found to constain surprises, and key insights into the likely future.
wraps around.
This site started in 2015, for reasons outlined in ‘why’.
Topics here have evolved to now be grouped under threats and opportunities. All contain subjects I have found to surprise, give insight into our future, or both.
, and have evolved to cover subjects i have found
the future
Not advocacy of what people should do, nor outrage about what people are doing, but a collection of observations that i find either suprising, revealing about the future, or both.
Topics and Subtopics.
Influence: No, they don’t want to sell your data, it’s worse.
I recently read another comment containing the ‘I don’t want google getting more of my data to sell’ and it reminded me of the question, ‘why is your data valuable?’, and the common myth that Facebook and Google etc want your data so they can sell it.
They don’t want to sell your data, but the reality, is more sinister: they want the power to change your thinking.
A different perspective: Humans maybe the greatest threat to life on Earth but also the only hope.
The title ‘one finite planet’ can be mistaken to be yet another proclamation of how we live on this amazing planet which could even be unique, and we humans are foolishly placing it all at risk. Boring.
No. Instead, the perspective is we are living on a planet that is naturally hostile to humans, where nature dictates only a limited total amount of life, can only exist for a limited time, and that time is almost at an end. When seen from this perspective, even the environment mission changes from just not interfering, to the more complex task of tackling the challenge of overcoming nature, while yes, quite importantly, not bringing life to an early end in the process.
EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?
The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain ‘cool’, or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right.
Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the ‘legacy’ automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla.
Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is ‘cool’, shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.
Who makes a profit from EVs? Does everyone but Tesla and BYD make a loss?
Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs?
This is an exploration of the challenges, and the foten repeated claims including: “Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?” and “Why make vehicles at a loss?“.
Auto makers have to find a way to make EVs at profit, close down, or hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is none of the top ten from 2021 are likely contenders.
Surviving with an EV and no driveway: on street charging.
People have for decades owned cars without needing to refuel at home, so it may not seem obvious just how important home charging is for owners of EVs. Various surveys confirm that 80% to 95% of EV charging happens at home and given that less than 80% of people have access to a space to be able to charge at home, those who can’t charge at home are less likely to buy an EV.
To understand the problem, try living with a mobile phone without charging at home, or at work.
COP27: Climate change action sabotage?
Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations.
The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost.
This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.
Welcome to One Finite World. As opposed to blog posts that convey a persons thoughts at one point in time, most pages here continue to evolve to be improved and updated over time, and are explorations of ideas being examined to discover answers, by career analyst of future trends with a background in science.me to One Finite World. These pages are explorations of a variety of topics from a futurist perspective, and unlike blog posts, have their content updated and improved over time.
The pages are not “this is what I think”, but more “here is the information I have, so what is the answer, and am I missing things?”.
What is here that might be of interest? And how to find it? The summaries, surprises and myths are of potential interest to everyone, while other content is more specialised. The search box and categories to right may help, but the contents below intended to best facilitatinallow finding anything and is organised from general interest through to the more specific as the intended best path to navigate to find content of interest, with the most common theme be .
Population. My journey to understanding population and overpopulation.
- Normal Population growth mirrors what happens with cells within our bodies, there is growth to maturity, growth for repair, but otherwise, there is stability.
- Our recent population explosion was not normal, and resulting in an unsustainable population without major concessions to how we live.
- We are at peak child and approaching Peak Humanity:
- We have only one finite planet, and it is already full of life. Further growth of the human population, requires a reduction in the population of other life.
- Further population growth will erode quality of life for all but a small elite group.
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- We have only one finite world, which can only host a finite amount of life. One of the biggest questions is how much of the life we share the planet with should be other humans, and how much do we leave for other living things?
- Is increasing the percentage of life that is us humans essential for economic growth, or from a certain point, does it means a smaller share each of an increasingly damaged planet?
- Does the qualify of life suffer for all without the wealth to increase their share?
- A summary of the findings from exploration of the population explosion, the impact of future population, and how this elephant in the room taboo topic is not only, as discussed by David Attenborough, critical to the natural world.
- The economic future as the battle intensifies between those running the humanity equivalent to a chicken farm, and the masses or ‘caged hens’ producing the golden eggs.
- Key highlights and surprises from deeper explorations of contemporary topics such as:
Will Electric Cars Change the Balance of Economic and Military Power In the World?
Covid-19, and how long will vaccinations against Covid-19 be required?- Social media uses the power of AI to increase polarisation, dissatisfaction and outrage. Why?
The Earth has only recently supported life on land, and that support will not continue for much longer..- Why do CO2 levels create a climate crisis now, when it was not a problem back when there were dinosaurs?
UFOs, are real! Now even Obama, Republicans and the current US government are spilling the beans.
- In depth explorations of a range of contemporary topics for those interested in the topics:
- Population, Overpopulation, and the 300 year population explosion.
- Polarisation and Conflict, and Left vs Right: The ideology of conflict and we all get along in a world where polarisation has now been monetized.
- Wealth Creation and Distribution: Earths almost 8 billion needs food, clothing, housing and more.
- Electric Cars and the changes to society once stop being too expensive for mainstream buyers.
- ‘Posts’ that reflect a chronology of events:
Trump and the 2020 US election.- Covid-19, from first being alarmed back in Jan 2020 through an observation of the pandemic from Australia.
- Science and Technology Explorations.
- Science, from science background and relativity made simple through to theories as the cutting edge.
- Technology, ‘Free Technology‘ and Robotics.
- Electric Vehicles.
- Product Reviews: Of potential interest to those looking for information on a product I have reviewed.
“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”
Attributed to Kenneth Boulding in: United States. Congress. House (1973)