EVs, Mobility and Electrification.

The two speed EV transition: Manufactures vs consumers. (part 1)

February 26, 2023 February 26, 2023

It is easy to underestimate how long it will take consumers to transition to EVs, and equally easy to underestimate how urgently manufactures need to transition to avoid collapse.

Two transition speeds? Yes, brands will switch to EVs in their showroom by 2025 or risk failure, but in what seems like a complete disconnect, there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road past 2050.

Around 10.5 million Electric Vehicles were delivered in 2022, which resulted in less than 0.7% of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles (I C EVs) being replaced by EVs during 2022, even those EVs represented 13% of new vehicles sales.

The data shows that new car showrooms transition to EVs 20x faster than the roads, and vehicle manufacture transition 20x faster then the public, and while ICEVs will likely still around beyond 2050, vehicle makers that can’t switch fast enough could collapse by 2030, bringing radical economic change.

EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?

January 13, 2023 January 13, 2023

The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain ‘cool’, or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right.

Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the ‘legacy’ automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla.

Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is ‘cool’, shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.

Who makes a profit from EVs? Does everyone but Tesla and BYD make a loss?

November 28, 2022 January 9, 2023

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price?

This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to “Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?” and “Why make vehicles at a loss?“.

Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive from 2021 is a likely contender.

Surviving with an EV and no driveway: on street charging.

November 20, 2022 November 20, 2022

People have for decades owned cars without needing to refuel at home, so it may not seem obvious just how important home charging is for owners of EVs. Various surveys confirm that 80% to 95% of EV charging happens at home and given that less than 80% of people have access to a space to be able to charge at home, those who can’t charge at home are less likely to buy an EV.

To understand the problem, try living with a mobile phone without charging at home, or at work.

EV Charging for Apartment complexes: A problem that can require a battle.

November 14, 2022 November 15, 2022

There are 3 approaches to residents of apartments being able to charge EVs:

They can go elsewhere to charge.

A small number of charging spaces will be provided.

Provision for individuals to have charging at the designated car space is facilitated.

This is a look at why charging and getting it right is a challenge for apartment complexes, those who want the problem to remain unsolved, and the merits of the possible solutions.

Car Wars: EV rebels vs oil and auto empires.

November 8, 2022 November 9, 2022

This is the exploration of a chequered history, the battles between EV and oil and auto companies that is still happening today. From companies forcefully taking back EVs from consumers to destroy them, to the battle between pop group A-Ah and authorities in Norway, to the Toyota spending billions to fight EVs and the wheels literally falling off their 2022 electric car, from industrial intrigue involving Interpol red notices, to the rise of Tesla and BYD.

BYD Atto 3 Australian Story.

October 21, 2022 February 1, 2023

I started a page on the Atto 3 back in April 2022, but the launch in Australia has become so complex that it justifies a separate page, so here it is together with NZ information, starting with content moved from the original page, but updated.

This is a page with details about the Australian, and New Zealand rollouts of the Atto 3 and the BYD brand, which from these humble beginnings, could become a major part of the automotive scene in both countries.

For the general overview of the Atto 3, including information learnt from the experiences of owners, including those in Australia and New Zealand, see the main Atto 3 page. For the strange events around the Australian launch, and the use of the centre rear seat for baby capsules, read on!

EV Price-Parity: It’s here already – sometimes, and EVs are setting sales records in key segments.

October 19, 2022 March 19, 2023

There already are some EVs with not just “Schrödinger’s parity“, but genuine price-parity winning not just awards, but topping sales charts. These are mostly from the Tesla and BYD duopoly, but they are not entirely alone.

Beating ICE vehicles in sales chart is the best test for price-parity, and segment by segment, EV contenders are being launched. Yes, there are still many overpriced ‘token EVs’ that either exist to satisfy green requirements, provide products for brand loyalists demanding EV products, or help convince their makers “there is little demand for EVs”.

This is an evaluation of price parity, and a list of vehicles with price parity on the market. The previously subsidy free Australian market is the base, but with inclusion of key international. The implications for established brands, and brand loyalty were surprising.

Charge Time Calculator: Configured for Atto 3.

September 27, 2022 September 27, 2022

This is a charge time calculator, which can be set to the charge curve of any car, but defaults to the values for the Atto 3.

Any transition from gas to EVs needs around 30 years.

September 24, 2022 September 24, 2022

In this polarised world, there seem to be two groups: those who all vehicles to be EVs now, and those who feel EVs will never be a good idea.

Truth is, it would create a legal minefield and cost consumers and the environment heavily to ban too quickly, but bans will come.

This is an exploration of reality of a transition to EVs, which concludes any optimum transition takes around 30 years.

This conclusion means anyone wanting to reach EVs by 2050 needs to start very soon, and anyone worried all EVs should never happen, can take comfort that any environmentally sound transition will take a long time, although for economic reasons, does need to at least start soon.

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