Explosion

Surprisingly, humanity is at 'peak child' and looks to be heading to population stability. The population explosion may arguably have left us with an overpopulated planet, but the explosion is ending, due to 'births' per woman falling from over 6 prior to 1900, and to around 2.2 in 2022. Some Economists panic about that and fear humans 'leaving peak population' and correcting to a lower population, even though that could benefit most of us. When first analysing the population explosion, I found a paradox as popular explanations for the fall in birth-rates like the "education of women" and other coincidence theories simply don't fit all the data. No, the Taliban are not onto something, as the real best answer is that people are motivated to have the number of children to give those children the best life possible in environment and situation, which may require environmental security and reducing inequality to limit the economist nightmare of further falls in birthrates.

Globally, peak child arrived just a few years after this was first published, although this global picture is not experience at every individual location. Data now clearly confirms that globally, the world has returned to 'peak child', ending of three centuries of a population explosion, and perhaps even millennia of more gradual growth prior to the explosion. Return to peak child means we could either return to the gradual growth levels of prior to the industrial revolution or become a mature species and exist in balance with nature and other living things. Perhaps even stop displacing other species?

Throughout history, although no other species on Earth has experienced such long term overall population growth, even before the recent population explosion, the human population kept slowly growing. Yes, we recently had an unprecedented population explosion, driven by the near elimination of previously tragic rate of infant mortality, but against a background of more gradual long-term growth, many of us may have never even realised we just had a population explosion. But what drove that long-term population growth even before the explosion, and what will now happen as the explosion ends?

For the environment, our peak population will be a nightmare. This page explores alternatives for the future of population, and the possibility that the current peak population will be the last time there are ever this many humans on Earth.