One Finite Planet

Newly commenced  Explorations from all Topics.

Use this page to also see all major updates.

Who makes a loss from EVs? Do only Tesla and BYD profit?

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs?

This is an exploration of often repeated claims including: Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs, succeed? Why make vehicles at a loss?

Auto makers have to find a way to make EVs at profit, close down, or hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is none of the top ten from 2021 are likely contenders.

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Surviving with an EV and no driveway: on street charging.

People have for decades owned cars without needing to refuel at home, so it may not seem obvious just how important home charging is for owners of EVs. Various surveys confirm that 80% to 95% of EV charging happens at home and given that less than 80% of people have access to a space to be able to charge at home, those who can’t charge at home are less likely to buy an EV.

To understand the problem, try living with a mobile phone without charging at home, or at work.

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COP27: Climate change action sabotage?

Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations.

The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost.

This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.

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Did Al Gore nail it: Is climate change merely inconvenient, or is it an existential threat?

Claims that +1.5oC warming would be ‘catastrophic’, and that climate change represents an ‘existential threat’ can be quite vague as just what is ‘catastrophic’ or an ‘existential threat’?

This webpaper, seeks to translate ‘catastrophic’ outcomes and ‘existential threats’ into more concrete outcomes.

“We recognise climate change is a serious problem and are committed to net zero by 2050 in order to prevent the disastrous consequences anticipated to occur by around 2026”

Typical government position: Is it ok?

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EV Charging for Apartment complexes: A problem that can require a battle.

There are 3 approaches to residents of apartments being able to charge EVs:

  • They can go elsewhere to charge.
  • A small number of charging spaces will be provided.
  • Provision for individuals to have charging at the designated car space is facilitated.

This is a look at why charging and getting it right is a challenge for apartment complexes, those who want the problem to remain unsolved, and the merits of the possible solutions.

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Car Wars: EV rebels vs oil and auto empires.

This is the exploration of a chequered history, the battles between EV and oil and auto companies that is still happening today. From companies forcefully taking back EVs from consumers to destroy them, to the battle between pop group A-Ah and authorities in Norway, to the Toyota spending billions to fight EVs and the wheels literally falling off their 2022 electric car, from industrial intrigue involving Interpol red notices, to the rise of Tesla and BYD.

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The Power struggle in Australia.

From “the biggest corruption scandal ever” in Brazil, problems in Venezuela, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Iran, to the problems caused by lobbyists against action on climate change, an abundance of fossil fuels is a source of political power, yet rarely force for good, and Australia, with a wealth of coal and gas, is not spared.

The current crisis in Ukraine not only drives up energy prices globally, but it also creates a dilemma for gas producing nations.

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BYD Atto 3 Australian Story.

I started a page on the Atto 3 back in April 2022, but the launch in Australia has become so complex that it justifies a separate page, so here it is together with NZ information, starting with content moved from the original page, but updated.

This is a page with details about the Australian, and New Zealand rollouts of the Atto 3 and the BYD brand, which from these humble beginnings, could become a major part of the automotive scene in both countries.

For the general overview of the Atto 3, including information learnt from the experiences of owners, including those in Australia and New Zealand, see the main Atto 3 page. For the strange events around the Australian launch, and the use of the centre rear seat for baby capsules, read on!

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EV Price-Parity: Rare, but it’s here, and it SELLS!

There are already some price-parity EVs, mostly from leading EV brands, and not traditional established automotive brands. This page has the findings from cataloging price-parity EVs as that was done as part of a study on the practicality of buying an owning an EV in Australia, as I found the results worthy of their own page.

It turns out price parity is the benchmark for ‘reasonable value’. Price parity EVs sell well, and the host of other EVs sell a small trickle that could help convince their makers “there is no demand for EVs”.

This is the evaluation of price parity, and the list of vehicles with price parity on the market, initially focused on the Australian market, but with inclusion of key models from other markets. The implications for established brands, and brand loyalty were surprising.

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Any transition from gas to EVs needs around 30 years.

In this polarised world, there seem to be two groups: those who all vehicles to be EVs now, and those who feel EVs will never be a good idea.

Truth is, it would create a legal minefield and cost consumers and the environment heavily to ban too quickly, but bans will come.

This is an exploration of reality of a transition to EVs, which concludes any optimum transition takes around 30 years.

This conclusion means anyone wanting to reach EVs by 2050 needs to start very soon, and anyone worried all EVs should never happen, can take comfort that any environmentally sound transition will take a long time, although for economic reasons, does need to at least start soon.

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The 3rd EV wave: Tesla and the Chinese are coming, and in a hurry!

EVs can be divided into 3 waves:

  1. EVs that people can use despite limitations including the Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, i-MiEV, and Zoe.
  2. Then EVs are truly competitive in premium and enthusiast markets: Tesla Model 3, then Model Y.
  3. Mainstream EVs at the Tesla Model A/2 price point, but so far from China, not Tesla.

While China has been another world for EVs, with price competitive EVs from US$5,000, only now in 2022 is the rest of the world getting its first 3rd wave EVs, and so far, they all come from China.

Teslas were sold globally, but every other EV, was either an EV not sold in China, or a Chinese only EV. Two separate worlds of EVs, that have begun a hurried unification and bring 3rd wave EVs and automotive industry disruption to the entire world.

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EV Literacy: AC, DC and Electric Motors for dummies.

For almost 100 years, people have grown up in an age of the internal combustion engine. For many people this has meant an understanding of engine capacity, cylinders, spark plugs, engine compression, crankshafts, valves, turbochargers, exhausts etc.

The bad news is that EVs mean so much that previous literacy is about to be consigned to history and replaced by induction and permanent magnet motors and other new terms.

The good news is, it is easy to build and EV literacy on the those ICEV foundations, so there is no need to feel illiterate in this new EV world.

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Why Population growth even before the explosion?

Throughout history, although no other species on Earth has experienced such long term overall population growth, even before the recent population explosion, the human population kept slowly growing.

Yes, we recently had an unprecedented population explosion, driven by is hidden by by the near elimination of previously tragic infant mortality, but against the background of long term growth, many of us never didn’t even realise their was an explosion.

But what drove population growth even before the explosion? What will now happen as the explosion ends?

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Fragile Democracy: Was Scott ‘Scomo’ Morrison autocrat of Australia?

Democracy collapses when a leader, who is able to bypass the checks and balances, uses their position to retain power.

Steps by recent leaders Scott Morrison and Australia and Donald Trump in the USA, raise questions as to whether current reliance on conventions and constitutions reliably protects democracy.

China, Russia and even North Korea are all technically democracies, and all proof of how technically being a democracy does not necessarily deliver real democracy.

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A deeper look how EVs impact the power grid.

What is the real answer to how the grid will cope? First the answer from an actual power company, a link to one from a popular vlogger, both of which should placate most people, although neither is water tight as both skip over some details critical to the full answer.

And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.

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Surprise, Shortest day ever recorded: Not just the solstice, but climate change?

This page is more under the heading of ‘fun facts’.

The first ‘fun fact’ is that while everyone knows how the length of daytime and nigh time vary throughout the year, it may come as a surprise to realise the length of the entire day, also varies. Partly because, second fun fact, the a day is a longer than one rotation of the Earth, which lead to the third fun fact: we just had the shortest total day ever recorded.

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Page Updates: OFP Posts WordPress plugin, why updates matter, and how to find them.

I am an analyst, not a journalist, which means the focus of this site is analysis. Journalists, with the word ‘jour’ at the start of their title, present pages which will normally be in their final correct form from day one.

Analysis is very different. Many topics analyses continue to evolve, and while a report on what happened at a point in time should remain intact, analysis should continually be updated to reflect current, rather than now outdated conclusions. Updates are essential for information to remain relevant.

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Economic Activity: An Obsession With An Illusion Of Prosperity.

Its the economy stupid. Voters want the best economic outcome, but by measuring the economy using ‘Economic Activity’, governments can effectively cheat the public.

In many western societies, instead of maximum prosperity, governments often pursue maximum economic activity, which benefits big business and governments, but can result in an economy which in theory is going well, while at the same time individuals fall behind. This is the kind of economic policy makes frustrated voters turn to Trump and Brexit.

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Solar and Wind: Renewables alone not a substitute for fossil fuels.

At least, not alone. Solar and Wind have proven to be successful partial cost effective substitutes for fossil fuels, neither wind nor solar is stored energy. Without strategies and adding stored energy available on demand, it is impossible to reach the goal of removing reliance on fossil fuels.

Consider home solar. With solar panels you can reduce your electricity costs, but to go ‘off grid’, you need a battery or other energy storage for the solar power. Yet, the need energy storage is being installed, but not connected to the grid.

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Population Explosion: What happened to get to 8 Billion people?

Humanity has just experienced a population explosion. Whether you believe we are overpopulated or not, the facts are that we have just had a population explosion.

Over two centuries of population peaking at 50x higher than the long term population growth, and peaking at 100x higher during the baby boom.

Yet the explosion occurred with women having less babies than ever before, even during the baby boom, and is ending all by itself.

So what caused the boom, why a population explosion when birth rates are falling? Will our population grow until we are living life like battery hens?

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Headphones, Earphones Revolution, plus B&O Beoplay H95, H9i, H9, Apple AirPods Max ETC.

Augmented reality was seen as potentially the way of the future when introduced in 2013. So far, augmented reality through sight has never delivered and people wearing augmented reality glasses are not a common sight. In contrast, people wearing headphones and earphones are everywhere. Augmented sound reality is here (or hear?) and if anything, is growing in significance. This page looks at the topic overall but also includes some specific reviews.

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Peak Child: When, and what does it mean?

Globally, the when is now. Although locally, experiences differ by location.

Data now clearly confirms that globally, the world has returned to ‘peak child’, a precursor to a likely return to peak population, and the end of three centuries of a population explosion.

Return to peak child means we could either return to the gradual growth levels of prior to the industrial revolution, or become a mature species, and exist in balance with nature and other living things. Perhaps even stop displacing other species?

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