Population

From childhood I had assumed human population was growing because the world was not yet fully populated and life was still expanding, but it turns out most recent "garden of Eden scenario" occurred 500 million years ago, and since then the planet has been full and the total biosphere of life slowly shrinking. It turns out that on geological timescales, it does not take very long for any species to reach its limit for possible population on Earth. So, given every niche where life now exists has long been filled to maximum capacity, how does the human population keep increasing? The answer is the same process that allows new species to arise and grow their populations, a process Darwin declared "survival of the fittest" which is basically species creating their own vacancies by out competing or "evicting" other species, resulting in the decline or extinction of other species to make way for population growth. This may explain why as the human population now grows other species face decline or face extinction, but the twist is how this population growth is happening some 300 thousand years after humans first appeared.

Surprisingly, humanity is at 'peak child' and looks to be heading to population stability and perhaps even 'leaving peak population' and correcting to a lower population. We still have an overpopulated planet, following the population explosion, but the explosion is ending, due to 'births' per woman falling from over 6 prior to 1900, and to around 2.3 in 2021. There is much confusion over why birth-rates are falling, with "education of women" often mistakenly given as an explanation, but no, the Taliban are not onto something, and rather than this or other common coincidence theories, it seems far more likely people are motivated to have the number of children that are appropriate for the situation.

It seems like the human population has forever been growing, but any analysis makes it clear growth must stop eventually at some level. The question becomes at what level should growth stop? Do we go for the maximum possible people just before everything collapses, even if average living standards could be far better with a smaller population? With caged hens being farmed for eggs people advocate for a lower free-range population instead of denser living caged hens as it provides a better existence, but does anyone advocate against multinationals and politicians pushing for denser and denser housing for humans in order to allow bigger populations of humans for them to farm? It seems to be accepted that global population growth should stop but claimed that countries who end population growth face economic disaster.

I have been asked on a few occasions, why not end population growth now? It is not like we need to get more people before population growth should stop! Japan has stopped population growth, why not the rest of us? What are we waiting for?

Globally, the when is now. Although locally, experiences differ by location. Data now clearly confirms that globally, the world has returned to 'peak child', a precursor to a likely return to peak population, and the end of three centuries of a population explosion. Return to peak child means we could either return to the gradual growth levels of prior to the industrial revolution, or become a mature species, and exist in balance with nature and other living things. Perhaps even stop displacing other species?

Throughout history, although no other species on Earth has experienced such long term overall population growth, even before the recent population explosion, the human population kept slowly growing. Yes, we recently had an unprecedented population explosion, driven by is hidden by by the near elimination of previously tragic infant mortality, but against the background of long term growth, many of us never didn't even realise their was an explosion. But what drove population growth even before the explosion? What will now happen as the explosion ends?

There is a dream, often explored in science fiction, where humanity inhabits not just one planet, but many. While the dream is still centuries away, as is 'Earth 2.0', the reality, working towards small outposts on Mars or the Moon or even beyond is overwhelming compelling and can provide many rewards. Humanity may get back up outposts, but for centuries, will have no real second home, and over 99% of us will still need to live on our one finite planet.

When it dawned on me that global economy is effectively a Ponzi scheme, it felt was a 'light bulb' moment'.  But has anyone else seen this?  I did an internet search and was not surprised to find that it has, indeed, dawned on many others as well. If you do a search, as I did, you will find many insights into this topic and that there are several different ways the global economy can be seen as a Ponzi scheme. Scary!

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”Attributed to Kenneth Boulding in: United States. Congress. House (1973)  This applies to not just to population growth, but just maybe also to the growth in value of housing. This page is a look at 'ghost cities' and 'ghost homes', and the window they provide into how distorted investment can become in the pursuit of growth. The end result of the distortions can be overvalued assets funded by highly leveraged ordinary citizens. If that is the case, not just with ghost cities but beyond, the correction will clearly present a financial crisis.

The main surprise is that life expectancy reveals very little about how long people typically live. From the 1500s till around 1800, life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 30 and 40 years of age, and it was only as recent as the 20th century, that life expectancy rose from 49.2 to 80.3 years. Yet famous historical figures from 2,000 years ago, typically lived to around 70 or longer.

Is it realistic that Earth could reach peak population by 2055, there really the largest number of under 35s on Earth there will ever be? Peak newborns already? What is the reality, and what are the implications?

7 trillion looks like a typo, but no, the maths shows that either by continuing the actual global population growth levels typical the 20th century, or achieving 2% per year (or far less than what is currently happening in Nigeria), the maths produce this number in a relatively short time! Alternatively, consider that if we […]

The recent G20 wrapped up with a commitment to target economic growth level for the G20 of 2.1% by 2018. Global population grwoth is over 1.1% so this means the worlds richest countries will be getting richer by just over 1% avove population increase per annum by 2018.  Is there any suggestion that this addional […]

The Australian prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) was interviewed on the ABC program ‘7:30’ answering questions on government policy regarding tax concessions for real estate investments.  The Prime Minister spoke of the need to retain a specific tax concession because reducing the concession would reduce demand, and to reduce demand would result in lower prices.  The […]

I suggest there are two key points in common between the nomination of Donald Trump as the republican candidate, and the ‘Brexit’ vote in the United Kingdom: the failure of our economic system to deliver distribute of increased economic wealth a backlash against immigration Economics. The first point is that we have created a disconnect […]

For the environment, our peak population will be a nightmare. This page explores alternatives for the future of population, and the possibility that the current peak population will be the last time there are ever this many humans on Earth.

The world has reached peak child, and is headed towards peak population. Many economic metrics collapse between peak child and peak population, resulting in bear stock markets and even collapses, all if the real economy and outside their investment portfolios, most people are relatively unaffected. Economic Ponzi Scheme Metrics. Peak Child and National Economies. Market […]

This is an exploration of what 'births per woman' means, and how it is measured. Key to discussion about population is population growth, which is most commonly analysed from 'births per woman', which is also called 'fertility rate'. But what is 'births per woman'? Answer: not quite what you might expect, which means a small adjustment is required for interpreting births per woman when predicting population growth.

As established in the previous exploration: Overpopulation, Starvation is the last symptom, overpopulation is exceeding 'carrying capacity'. Reducing the number of people is counterproductive if the action to reduce population, reduces carrying capacity. If society was to collapse, then even with 1/10 the people, we could still be overpopulated relative what we could then support.

A friend was commenting on how her employer, a major ‘blue-chip’ employer, was transforming the workplace.  The shift in emphasis is  to less work needing to take place in the office, and more provision for people to work from home.  The direction it is heading is for people only to attend the office for scheduled […]

Industrial/Growth Age Characteristics (discussed in detail later in the post) automation replaces manual labour time to travel continually decreases automation and culture spreads around the globe population growth is unprecedented economic markets expand rapidly the Christian religion is the dominant religion of the revolution Have I missed any? Most likely yes. Information/Eco Age Characteristics (again, […]

Abstract: There is a population ‘catch 22’ in that some countries with underlying  population reduction continue to grow their population through immigration because these same countries are most attractive to potential immigrants. This hides the underlying population reduction, and produces an illusion that populations always grow. If you read this, chances are you live in […]

Surprising, global population growth is set to slow, because of changes to birth rates that have already occurred. Clearly families are not the size they were even 50 years ago. So why have we not already seen a change in growth? Is growth really going to slow down? The answer is that we have not […]

I read a story on population in China that I found surprising in three ways. Synopsis. Peak China: The Population of China Has Already Peaked. I had not expected the population of China to peak for another 10 years, with another 30 million expected to be added to the current tally of 1.433 billion by […]

Population is a complex subject. To arrive at my current level of understanding, it took many 'light bulb moments' over the years since starting research in 2013, with many realisations shattering some of my previous beliefs, and sometimes taking years to be ready to take the next step. Here is a recap of that journey. If you can move quickly from step to step, then you can absorb information faster than I can, but perhaps this information will inspire others on their own journey.

Yes, although not everyone agrees, the Earth is overpopulated by normal definition of overpopulation: population beyond sustainable carrying capacity. For those who do feel the earth is overpopulated: "Don't panic, and reducing population is not a quick fix".

There are at least four conflicting perspectives to population growth. Continued population growth is an economic requirement, is the optimum path for economic prosperity, and therefore must continue indefinitely. Global population will peak at approximately 9 billion around 2050 (official UN projection according to wikipedia page at time of writing), or at most around 11 […]

My suggestion in my future population posts is that population growth has a greater effect on economic indicators than on real wealth of citizens.  Here is an attempt to look at the economic impact of population growth, and what factors are real and identify any cases where indicators are positive beyond any real economic benefits. […]

There is a life-time length lag or delay between any change in birth-rates, and those birth-rates being fully reflected in the population growth (or reduction) rate. This can create the paradox where a country with low birth rates, may still grow in population for decades. It is also why the world population will continue to […]

Overpopulation is when there when population cannot exist sustainably without damage to the environment. Warnings of overpopulation often focus on the eventual starvation that could occur following environmental collapse, rather than the time bomb of declining living conditions for multiple species. Although such a substantial human population existing unsustainably wreaks havoc on the planet, borrowing from the future though unsustainable agriculture can delay any starvation for decades. However, as those who profit from overpopulation are sufficiently rich that they can improve their living conditions even as average resources per person declines, the wealthy will keep advocating "population growth is the path to prosperity". But can we risk becoming an Easter Island story by prioritising population growth to please the billionaires over a return to sustainability?

The wealth differential is increasing not just between rich and poor individuals, by in the corporate world as well.  I have been thinking about the increasing trend towards monopolies and the problems with modern government structure and monopolies. Starting with some thoughts on the background, and then why monopolies may be on the increase. The […]

Clearly, immigration policy is one of the cornerstones of ‘populism’. A key reason for the intensity of debate on this topic is the misdirection by one group of the ‘elites’, creating confusion between the terms ‘immigrants’ and ‘refugees’, in order to engineer a confidence trick of substituting greed driven economic migration for humanitarian refugee intakes. […]

The actor Morgan Freeman has declared he is determined to produce a movie based on the novel ‘Rendevous with Rama’ by Arthur C Clarke.  Great Sci-Fi writers like Clarke are renown for their insights in to the possible future and this novel is no exception.  After again reading this novel I realised the insights into […]

Every living creature has an ‘environmental footprint’, or an impact on the environment in a multitude of different ways. Most of us are aware of concept of a ‘carbon footprint’, and how we can reduce this footprint by changing how energy is produced.  In the end energy is energy no matter how it is produced.  […]

I have commented several times on how the ‘engine for global population growth’ has been switched off.  Most of us will have noticed how family sizes have dramatically reduced in recent generations even if we have not linked this to population growth. Many of us have stories of families just one or two generations ago […]

Have you heard of the ‘ageing population problem’? Why is it a problem that people living longer? Or is the problem that population the population explosion is ending? Or maybe, declaring there is an 'ageing population problem' has become a convenient excuse for governments with unbalanced budgets, and big business and the usual candidates pushing a population growth agenda? This page looks at the real issues underpinning an 'ageing population'. The reality is: an ageing population itself is not a real problem.

If you are not aware that the rate of population increase has slowed significantly, then you can refer to some of the pages in this section.  The red line on graph here may also help. As you can see, although the rate of growth has dropped significantly, the global population does still continue to grow. […]

Where is the halt? This blog states that there has been a halt to engine of the population explosion, but the global population looks to be continuing to spiral out of control! What gives? The lag that delays any halt. The most obvious sign of the halt of the population engine is to consider how […]

There are four different opinions of the future of the human population: 1) The human population can, and will, keep growing indefinitely. 2) The human population can keep growing indefinitely, and we may need intervention if there is any slowing of growth to ensure the growth keeps happening. In this view population growth is seen […]