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Views of Future Population.

Date Published:

There are four different opinions of the future of the human population:

1) The human population can, and will, keep growing indefinitely.

2) The human population can keep growing indefinitely, and we may need intervention if there is any slowing of growth to ensure the growth keeps happening. In this view population growth is seen as essential for the economy and the population balance.

3) The human population cannot, or will not keep growing ,indefinitely and the economy will need to adjust to an economy without population growth. The population will stop growing of its own accord at a satisfactory level, so the economy is the only problem to solve.

4)  There is a limit to possible population growth on Earth.  Any pause in population or  ‘irreversible trend to slow growth’ may  not really happen and is already too late to prevent severe consequences from an already too large population. It cannot be assumed that population growth will stop as early as it should, leading to much greater problems when the inevitable stop must come.   The economy, which has evolved entirely in the growth phase, will need to make the painful adjustment to stable population and even manage declining population, plus the world needs an active approach to minimise consequences of overpopulation.

Which view is your current view?  If you have not given it much thought I would expect view (1) or (2) to the be the starting point.  I believe both the statistics on countries with birth-rates too low for population increase in my post ‘the catch 22‘ of population growth should be sufficient to move anyone to at least view (2).  The next step to view (3) requires an understanding that the population we can support is finite.  Moving to step (4) requires adopting the view that the current projected global population is above the ideal population.

If you read my posts you may come on the same journey I have come as my view evolved from view (1) to view (4).  Alternatively, you may find flaws with my arguments.  Either way, I hop you enjoy the ride.

Updates.

  • 2015 Feb 24: typos

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May 30, 2024 July 20, 2024

Let me start by saying I do feel unauthorised migration over the US southern border has become a genuine problem and it would be reduced under Donald Trump.

However, I also feel this problem is grossly misrepresented for political advantage, and even the southern border is better managed under Trump, it is not the real immigration problem and will make little difference to other very real problems facing the average American citizen.

Not that Democrats are any better on the real problem. Joe Biden is so committed on using migration to grow the economy that he even labelled allies “xenophobic” for not using immigration to grow their economy, plus Biden trusts economic indicators telling him the economy is fine, instead of the US citizens telling him it isn’t.

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Arguably mankind’s greatest achievement, the near eradication of infant mortality, has resulted in a population explosion resulting in overpopulation that we prefer not to mention, even though it may yet kill us. Technically we would not die from overpopulation itself, just as people don’t really die from “old age”, and the real risk is that an already present threat will be exacerbated and become fatal because through our greed we ignore overpopulation.

Unlike old age, the overpopulation risk factor could be avoided or reversed, we may be influenced by economists dependant on Ponzi schemes, the worlds’ largest corporations and billionaires who thrive off the resultant increases in inequality into believing that living conditions required by ever increasing population levels benefit everyone and not just those living in mansions.

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It seems like the human population has forever been growing, but any analysis makes it clear growth must stop eventually at some level. Perhaps consider that the wealthier each person, the less people the planet can support when answering the question of at what level should growth stop?

Do we go for the maximum possible people just before everything collapses, even if average living standards could be far better with a smaller population? When caged hens are farmed for eggs, people advocate for a lower population to allow living free-range for a better existence, yet with people being farmed by multinationals, billionaires and politicians growing the human population to grow the economy, it seems that denser and denser housing and reduced resources per person for human workers is accepted.

Most countries seem to agree that global population growth should end but and state that ends its own population growth faces economic disaster.

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Overpopulation: starvation is not the symptom.

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The Myth: We are not starving yet means we aren’t overpopulated. The Truth: Overpopulation is defined as when population reaches a level resulting in damaging to the environment and is unsustainable. Starvation only happens if overpopulation continues until a final catastrophic environmental collapse and is no more a symptom of overpopulation than death is a symptom of disease. Unsustainability is a symptom.

Consider grazing animal on a farm. Overpopulation means unattainability and the animals eat grass faster than it grows, starvation when there is no grass left.

We are not yet starving, but unsustainability means we are overpopulated, and progressively, all but perhaps the richest 1% must suffer if we fail to constrain population.

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Peak Population 2055: Really? That soon?

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Is it realistic that Earth could reach peak population by 2055? Is there really already the largest number of under 35s on Earth there will ever be? Peak newborns already? What is the reality, and what are the implications?

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