Conundrum: A perfect world would mean open borders and zero net migration.
Population and immigration are highly complex topics I have been researching now for over 10 years and have reached the conclusion that birthrate of the population in any given area reflects the population trend desired by the people of that area.
If birthrates do reflect the will of the people, then as now in the 21st century most developed nations have a birthrate that would result in a population correction (reduction) or gradual fall, government policies of “boost migration” to ensure population growth or at least prevent any fall in population are now in conflict with the people. This becomes a conflict between different groups because population growth is still desired for economic reasons by government, billionaires and big business, even when it is against the economic interests, and overall happiness levels of the average citizen.
In many of these nations with boost immigration in conflict with birthrates, there are political groups who embark on a program of deception blaming social problems on “illegal immigrants” who typically are only a minority of immigrants and no more responsible for those social problems than any other group.
The real factor contributing towards social problems is often the population growth that results from the boost immigration. In these same countries, past population growth did not cause problems, and the failure is the failure to recognise that population growth, like everything else, has its limits, and a key indication of those limits could be the birthrate of the people.
This opposition to “boost migration” may sound like an anti-immigration position, but in a world that is now past “peak child”, which means population growth over the coming decades will be restricted to increased longevity of the elderly, the economic migration component of boost migration becomes increasing immoral, and this is the basis of opposition to boost migration.
Plus, in a world where every year more countries cross the threshold from birthrates of population growth to those of population reduction/correction, and AI and AI robots replace workers, countries pursuing or having pursued a policy of boost immigration are soon likely to find themselves at a disadvantage due to human overpopulation. The global trend following the recent population explosion is towards a period of population reduction/correction until the arrival of the almost inevitable next population explosion due to older people living much longer.
While in a perfect world, there would be no refugee component to migration, for now refugee intakes are needed and refugee intakes should not be reduced, nor the refugees demonised, because of boost migration and the backlash against boost migration.
The goal is a world seeking to reduce refugee migration, because the refugees have no reason to flee, rather than one where politicians desire high levels of potential refugee migration as a tool for their political success.
We may never reach the perfect world where equal numbers of people wish to leave and arrive in each country and refugee migration is no longer required, but we should at least be working in that direction rather than have people motivated against that direction.
Boost Immigration: A pattern common to many developed nations.
Boost immigration, which could also be called “economic boost immigration” is when governments target immigration (population growth) as a method of driving economic growth, rather than a mechanism of cultural exchange and provision for refugees.
Boost immigration makes immigration a hot topic.
Immigration is the population related issue that appears on the list of concerns of most people. As an example, here are the results of polling US voters from the Civic Science website, which is a site claiming data integrity is their passion. In reality, immigration is not always the number one issue, but as indicated by this data, it is an important issue for many people, at least in the US, and most developed countries, as the same issues present in the US are present in most developed countries, and I believe of potential interest to those without the exact same issues.
The focus on immigration makes sense because not only is immigration something that has the most immediate impact on the population, it can be controlled by governments, and also has impacts beyond just population levels.
But the reason immigration is so high on the list of concerns is that people are unhappy. In most countries where immigration is such a concern, the following three factors are all present, creating what I consider an immigration war:
- The birthrate is below replacement level, which I believe suggests the instinct of the people is for a population correction (reduction).
- The government has an “economic immigration” policy that counters the instinct of the people through targeted programs to lure immigrants in chosen categories in order to grow the economy.
- There are “Illegal immigrants” and/or refugees boosting immigration numbers beyond those of the government “economic immigration” policies.
- A housing crisis and a rising “cost of living”.
- Politicians, some of whom blame social problems and even crime on “Illegal” immigrants, fueling division.
Some key points that impact immigration arise from the picture of global population.
The deep dive into the principles of population growth, the history of human population both before and during the recent population explosion ++combine for a lot of reading for those interested in the deep dive, but the following are the most significant points that relate to immigration:
- Global population growth has already slowed to the point of “peak child” and it is widely agreed that without some type of radical intervention, the global population growth is ending, and population levels will then ease until the next population explosion.
- By the definition of “exceeding carrying capacity”, which is when population numbers result in a deterioration of the environment, humanity is currently experiencing overpopulation and borrowing from the future by living unsustainably. On this basis, there is a quite compelling case to at least achieve sustainability before anyone actively pushes further increases in population.
The first point, that global population growth is coming to an end, leads to a key factor present in the USA and almost all other developed countries, and is central to what makes immigration such a topical issue in countries like the USA, Australia, Brazil, Canada, UK, most of the EU etc…
In all these countries, birth rates have been well below replacement levels for decades, yet the population has, at least until now, continued growing.
Checking countries on the List of counties by total fertility rate and scrolling down to see the countries listed below the quoted 2.1 replacement rate, reveals almost every developed nation is at well below that replacement rate.
This means citizens in all these countries are electing to have children at a rate that see the nation’s population ease back after the global population explosion, but government policies to grow population through immigration ensures the population continues to increase and not decrease.
The missing links.
At time of initial publication, there are many “missing links” to the material supporting the assertions contained here. The material is mostly in place within the over 40 pages supporting this topic, but over the month of April 2024 links to navigate to the relevant content will be added.