+1.5 In the next 5 years.
The biggest news is that my prediction of +1.5 rise in temperatures by 2026 now has some support by people who know. Back in October 2021, at the time of COP26, I took a look at climate change trends and came to the conclusion that the planet is on track to reach +1.5oc temperature rise by around 2026, making targets of ‘net zero by 2030, 2050 or 2060’, look strange if the goal is to avoid a rise of +1.5oc.
So, vindication? There’s a 50:50 chance the planet will pass the 1.5C warming threshold in the next 5 years is not quite vindication, but I will take it as very close. The variation from my prediction is that it is suggested that it may be only a temporary time beyond +1.5. It may. And it may not reach +1.5. But even at the odds of 50% that target is reached and a lack of certainty that the level will remain, then if +1.5oc is really threatening and it is the only planet we have, it is concerning. With these odds on my house becoming unliveable, I would really be taking action. Is it really a threat that at +1.5oc the planet may become far less liveable?
Recent Observations.
The demonstrations of inability of the parties to even play politics well for the upcoming Australian election does not inspire. Clearly the party favoured to win governement, has a leader who is not great at ‘shooting from the hip’ when hit with ‘gotcha’ questions on the campaign trail. Ye
Waleed Aly, a deep thinking with opinions the have earnt respect, on the program tomorrow tonight, when it was suggested that their is a fundamental human need to believe in a god, stated that was a claim only an atheist would make, as for a believer, that people will create a religion is not a necessary concept. For me the problem with this that for a Muslim, surely it can still be recognised that have been gods of the Romans, ancient Greeks and Vikings, that according to his beliefs did not exist. To me this gets to a key point where believe in the details of one specific religion requires believing that most humans believe in the wrong thing, as there is no dominant religion. I need to explore this further.
Updates.
Again, far more updates to exiting pages than new pages added lately. Pages updated include:
- Freewill: Free to do what we want, but not free to control what want?
- Should you buy a hybrid car?
- and pages on recharging and range of electric vehicles.
we can choose what we want, but who controls what we want?
What’s next?
- an upcoming page on what is the optimum global population
- the threat to population politics from Elon musk owning twitter.
- a look at aging and the potential for extending human lifetimes.