One Finite Planet

Beyond COP26: 1.5°C Now Ensured, Where Next?

First Published:

cnn: Annual global temperature compared to pre-industrial levels, in degrees Celsius
  • Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen.
  • But Action Is Getting Real.
  • So, Where Next?

Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen At COP26.

My notes on COP26 are here, but although with the leaders having left I had thought the sad story over, there has been positive news since then.

COP26 opened to two declarations.

  • This is our last chance to avoid 1.5°C temperature rise.
  • The doomsday clock is now at 1 minute till midnight, and 1.5°C is that midnight.

For all the enthusiasm of those declarations, there was not sufficient buy in to the doomsday clock argument to produce anything sufficiently significant beyond that at previous conferences which have so far failed to arrest an acceleration in temperature increases.

The last chance to avoid 1.5°C card having been played, what is next? It seems certain 1.5°C will be reached before 2030 when target set by current governments for their successors come into force anyway, but I wonder what the next card will be.

Simply taking the data from this graph and using regression, it should be expected 1.5°C would occur in 2023.

But Action Is Getting Real.

I made notes on COP26, but thought with the leaders having left it seemed over. But no, there is more. So it urns out I need to update things. Stand by..

So, Where Next?

I will also maintain this page to keep a list of post COP26 announcements, and try to analyze given current trends, at what point it would be possible to limit temperature increases.


Table of Contents


Environmental impact of the transition to EVs.

Its 2022, and only 1 in 8 new car purchases globally is an EV, and as only 1 in 4 car purchases is a new car, only 1 in 32, or around 3% of all car purchases, are an EV purchase. While the EV percentage is rising, there will be gas/petrol/diesel cars until at least 2045, and little reduction in emissions from the EV transition alone.

As demand for EVs will continue to outstrip supply, no one will need to choose an EV to save the planet, or run out of other choices any time soon. Bans are to pressure manufacturers to move from protecting their existing assets and produce enough EVs to meet demand, rather than force consumers into ICEVs.

Read More »

Big Oil, AKA Big Fossil: How real, and what about ‘big climate’?

Yes, big oil clearly has a vested interest in arguing against climate change and downplaying risks, but on the other hand, aren’t there also vested interests exaggerating and overstating the risks of climate change? Effectively ‘big renewables’, ‘big science’ or ‘big climate’?

This is a look at the financial might on each side of the argument, and the respective motives for each side to overstate their case.

Is this really a balanced fight, or is it more like the might of ‘big tobacco’ vs ‘whistle blower medical research’ all over again?

Read More »

Home Charging: The Challenge To A Green Equitable EV Transition

Moving to EVs is going to increase electricity requirements, and at a time when there is already a technical challenge to more the electricity supply to “green” source. But what it electric vehicles could solve the “green power grid” problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality? It turns out dream scenario is definitely possible, but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem be solved.

Read More »

Covid-19 & Vaccination Deaths: Statistically, Coincidences will distort reported deaths.

I read recently about reasonable people protesting over post vaccination deaths in South Korea, echoing stories from around the globe about the underreporting of deaths following vaccination.

Can most of these deaths be just coincidences? This question has me seeking the real story on what is happening, not just with deaths following vaccination, but also with deaths from the virus. Almost one year after my initial exploration of vaccine efficacy and safety, now there is data, not just projections, so it is time for a review, and this question needs answering for any such a review.

Read More »