August 14, 2022 – One Finite Planet

One Finite Planet

Everything has limits - approaching them is driving an accelerating rate of change.

Topics and Subtopics.

A deeper look how EVs impact the power grid.

August 14, 2022 August 15, 2022

And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.

Cars, Trucks & EVs: Can the EV save the car?

This is the lead webpaper for all content related to cars and trucks and their future, and while most content is on the transition to EVs and hybrids, but also the future of car ownership.

Many, even including Elon Musk, claim that in the future, people won't need to own a car. I suggest that sentiment misses that cars are mobile living spaces, which is why car ownership is more important than just having a method of transport. In fact, a future where only the wealthy can own cars is heading towards the direction of reducing personal living space and "caged humans" where it could also be suggested "people won't need their own home".

This is a site that supports a transition to EVs, without embracing the agenda that EVs are only ever smaller city cars or better still just electric bicycles, but because EVs should allow the vehicles we want to own to be sustainable. That is provided we don't also succumb to living in cities that seek ever denser population densities.

Any transition from gas to EVs needs around 30 years.

In this polarised world, there seem to be two groups: those who want all vehicles to be EVs now, and those who feel EVs will never be a good idea.

Truth is, it would create a legal minefield and cost consumers and the environment heavily to ban too quickly, but bans will come.

This is an exploration of reality of a transition to EVs, which concludes any optimum transition takes around 30 years.

This conclusion means anyone wanting to reach EVs by 2050 needs to start very soon, and anyone worried all EVs should never happen, can take comfort that any environmentally sound transition will take a long time, although for economic reasons, does need to at least start soon.

Tesla & Elon Musk

Tesla Enigma & Musk Dummy Spit April 2024: No longer a car company? Will Tesla become another Twitter?

In April 2024, following a disappointing below expectations Q1 sales result, Tesla began layoffs to up to 20% of its workforce, announced a focus on "Robotaxi" in priority over a new more mass-market entry-level model sometimes referred by the press as the "model 2", and saw the departure of many Tesla senior personnel who had previously shared the stage with Musk at media events. Can the EV world really afford see this move positioning the company key to having brought EVs this far as a "not a car company". What is happening? Are the layoffs etc. just Elon Musk having a dummy spit, a period of turmoil, or does the shadow of Twitter mean the dream of Tesla becoming a leading carmaker over?

Timeline - EV Milestones

EVs stalling in 2024: End of the road, Speedbump, or buyers caught between Trump, Musk and China?

Depending on who you ask, EV sales could be either booming or grinding to a halt. Even AI answered: "The web results are contradictory and show different perspectives", and Ford on same day the same company reported record EV sales and a plan to cut back on EV plans due to lack of buyer interest. So, what is really happening? Can biases be sidestepped to uncover a real answer? As is often the case, reality is a mix of both answers. Globally, EV sales are still growing, but growing slower, and in some places, sales are stalling.

Car Trucks EVs & Personal Mobility

Cars, Trucks & EVs: Can the EV save the car?

This is the lead webpaper for all content related to cars and trucks and their future, and while most content is on the transition to EVs and hybrids, but also the future of car ownership. Many, even including Elon Musk, claim that in the future, people won't need to own a car. I suggest that sentiment misses that cars are mobile living spaces, which is why car ownership is more important than just having a method of transport. In fact, a future where only the wealthy can own cars is heading towards the direction of reducing personal living space and "caged humans" where it could also be suggested "people won't need their own home". This is a site that supports a transition to EVs, without embracing the agenda that EVs are only ever smaller city cars or better still just electric bicycles, but because EVs should allow the vehicles we want to own to be sustainable. That is provided we don't also succumb to living in cities that seek ever denser population densities.

Our Accessories: From Homes to EVs & Phones

Humans: the species with accessorised evolution.

The defining difference between humans and other species is that the "accessories" we make evolve independently of our genes. The difference between humans of 50,000 years ago and the 21st century can be seen by anyone, while birds' nests, beavers' dams and bees' hives only evolve when the species evolves. In the spirit of Batman and Ironman, our 'accessories' or 'tools' allow to outcompete other species confined by biological evolution and provide humans with enhanced abilities that could even be seen by past generations as superpowers. Genetically we may be similar to humans of over 50,000 years ago, but our accessories make us very different in ways that impact us from our population to tolerance of others.

Timeline - EV Milestones

2023 may not the year to buy an EV, but it’s definitely very late to risk buying a new ICEV!

While there are still valid reasons for most to hesitate before buying an EV in 2023, it's definitely late to risk buying a new ICE vehicle and may be a better time to instead plan a combustion engine exit. Considering the trend from where EVs were 5 years ago to today, and then projecting EV sales growth over the next 5 years, and it seems almost certain almost all new ICEVs of today face an obsolescence risk. While this does not mean everyone should rush out and buy an EV, it is an opportunity to prepare for an aspect of the future that may catch some unawares.

BYD Atto 3 & Other BYD vehicles

Living with EVs

EV Reference Information

EV barriers - politics - alternatives

Transition to EVs & Renewables: Problems and progress.

Car Wars: The anti-EV campaigns

BYD now targets Toyota’s “step to EVs” as DM-i + DMO EV hybrids go global in 2024 with BYD Shark & Sealion 6.

Commenced: January 14, 2024 Updated: May 19th, 2024

2024 May 19 : More detailed "make a hybrid" and added Sealion pricing.

Just as BYD EVs have taken on Tesla, BYD DM plug-in hybrids will take on Toyota "step to EVs" hybrids, targeting those not yet ready for full EVs with technology that is crushing sales of gas-powered cars China. In 2022 BYD took vehicle market leadership in China from VW and Toyota with EV first hybrids that are simpler and perform better for the same money as regular gas cars and began EV exports taking on Tesla outside China. In 2024 BYD will now compete globally with "EV first" hybrids that took market leadership from gasoline cars in China from VW, expanding international sales in the "step to EVS" market, with hybrid technology so advanced even Toyota is considering adopting it. This page looks at how BYD "DM-i"s are different from other hybrids and make them great value "pure EVs" to drive that can be driven on gasoline or electric and reveal specs of BYD export DM-i and DMO EVs as they are revealed.

Software and tips for BYD Atto 3 + other BYD EVs.

Commenced: May 22, 2023 Updated: April 9th, 2024

2024 April 9 : Updated the "software updates to request" list.

Although this page was launched with information on side loading Apps to the BYD Atto, it is progressively being updated with more tips for BYD Atto 3 owners such as charging and battery care. For those considering buying an EV or other content on the Atto 3 and on BYD can be found on other EV pages on this site. Rather than a typical webpaper, this page is really only of interest to owners of BYD vehicles. See page contents dropdown for an index to this page and a list of what is covered.

Tesla vs BYD: Market competitors or duopoly?

Commenced: April 20, 2022 Updated: March 1st, 2024

2024 March 1 : Update in progress.

Is Tesla or BYD the world's leading EV maker? They both are! While who leads depends on over what period and how you count EVs, together they dominate world EV sales, and their combined position is strengthening. So, no undisputed world number 1 EV brand, even at year end 2023. These two are the current EV market leaders, and as EVs gain market share, these two are on trajectories to become no #1 and no #2 car carmakers worldwide when EVs take over, if no legacy brand passes them. But will either of them ever reach true #1 before the chasing pack catches them? This page reports and tracks progress.

Decades long EV transition with no green quick fix.

Commenced: June 9, 2022 Updated: February 5th, 2024

2024 Feb 5 th: Revised introduction synopsis and transition acceleration calculations.

Despite many claims that EVs have a dirty secret in that they are not really green at all, the real secret is how long it takes for the green payback. The claims are based on two realities: 1) the driving of EVs still results in emissions when EVs are charged from our current dirty electrical grids, and 2) the building of EVs also creates emissions, and sometimes increased emissions over building ICEVs. However real data from critical studies shows that even in the worst case, overall, an high build emission inefficient EVs charged from a dirty grid still result in less emissions than ICEV. Just in that extreme case, only a marginal reducing in emissions! However, already not all grids are "dirty grids" and as vehicles have an average lifespan of over 20 years either dirty grids will improve during that 20 years or we may have bigger problems. Build emissions from EVs largely track EV prices, and Wright's law dictates both EV prices build emissions will soon fall below those for ICEVs. The real conclusion from examining this question, is there is no quick fix green EV transition, but any delay in reducing production of ICE vehicles is creating …

What’s needed to profitably make vehicles, and are only Tesla and BYD there yet with EVs in 2023?

Commenced: November 28, 2022 Updated: December 18th, 2023

2023 December 18 th: Updated "franchise/dealership problem"

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price? This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to "Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?" and "Why make vehicles at a loss?". Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough ICEV market for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 EV brands will dominate 80% of vehicle the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive brands from 2021 is a likely contender.

BYD. Who is BYD and “what’s next from BYD?”

Commenced: June 15, 2023 Updated: December 6th, 2023

2023 December 6 th: added "What's next for BYD exports" section.

Depending on how you count, BYD is either the biggest, or 2nd biggest, EV brand in the world. But that is only the start as BYD ranks not only compared to Tesla and other EV brands, but in total of ALL vehicle sales. In August 2023 BYD overtook Ford to secure 4th spot in global car sales. In China, the world's largest vehicle market. BYD has now in 2023 taken the lead from VW and Toyota as the bestselling brand of all vehicles inside China. No Chinese brand has ever been market leader in China before, and this not just of EVs but all sales including diesel and gasoline vehicles, despite BYD snow selling only EVs. As of March 2023, the Atto 3 from BYD has risen to 3rd bestselling EV globally behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, but the world outside of China is only just starting to see the capabilities of BYD and quality of their vehicles and batteries.

Hydrogen facts: No, it’s not abundant on Earth. Nor green nor an energy source, but energy storage.

Commenced: April 13, 2021 Updated: December 1st, 2023

2023 December 4th : New edition of this page, with additions including white and pink hydrogen and more on the pressure required for storage.

There is much talk of a 'hydrogen economy'. A hydrogen future has long been the dream of the fossil fuel industry, and much of the traditional automotive industry, but what is the nature of the element hydrogen that is behind it all? There are clear practical uses for hydrogen, but the questionable hype is the use of hydrogen as a fuel or in energy storage. It turns out much of the attraction around hydrogen fuel is that it can generate a value chain for suppliers as it more expensive than alternatives and could provide a revenue future for the fossil fuel industry, if only a reason to compel its adoption despite the cost barriers. This is a look at hydrogen itself, its abundance, and the blue and green etc sources of hydrogen, as background for pages on hydrogen cars vs EVs, on carbon capture, and for this page highlighting which "hydrogen projects are viable, and which are scams?"

Why EV Battery size is not just about range, and the implications for hybrids.

Commenced: April 13, 2023 Updated: November 1st, 2023

2023 November 1 st: full page revision.

When you look deeper, battery capacity of an EV matters far more than you might think, as it effects not just range, but also battery life and vehicle power. If a battery is quite small, as is usually the case with a hybrid (HEV), and even most plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), there will be limited total distance that can be driven "emissions free" before battery degradation, which is why use of fossil fuels is a necessity for most hybrids.

Living with an Atto 3 EV in 2023: An Australian Experience and FAQ.

Commenced: September 25, 2023

This page began as a 'Should you buy an EV or not?' written from experience, but as it is impossible to cover every possible perspective, the example is an Atto 3 in Australia, so the more similar the vehicle being considered is to the Atto 3, and the more similar the country to Australia the more of this content that will be of interest. For comparison with other vehicles, I have a separate page soon to be published comparing the Atto 3 to both other EVs as well as traditional internal combustion or hybrid vehicles.

Mr Bean cans EVs: what he gets right.

Commenced: June 13, 2023

Yes, he may come across as a mega-rich collector of exotic internal combustion engine vehicles looking to find any way to delay their demise, but while the fascinating recent article by “Mr. Bean” does get so much so very wrong, it also does get somethings right. From the fascinating article by Rowan Atkinson on EVs: […]

Toyota: Failure inevitable?

Commenced: December 16, 2017 Updated: June 30th, 2023

2023 June 30 : Toyota announces EVs that will make even their own hybrids obsolete within 3 years.

Once the darling of Hollywood in the wake of "green" image built by the Prius hybrid, Toyota has more recently prompted shareholder complaints, and calls for boycotts by climate groups in response to Toyota anti-climate action and anti-EV lobbying that has seen the company reach the status of no 3 climate enemy company in the world, behind only Exxon-Mobil and Chevron. Either Toyota is ideologically against action on climate change, or senior management see no way for Toyota to survive the EV transition.

EV Battery Reference: Basics, Technologies, Care & Benefits.

Commenced: May 23, 2021 Updated: May 19th, 2023

*2023 Dec 16 th: Links in Anecdotes plus video in "near universal power".

Batteries for EVs have progressed: From: very expensive even while delivering an impractical range.To: Less expensive with an acceptable range. Only now in 2022, are batteries showing signs they can soon enable EVs price competitive and range competitive. With the new world of EVs, comes a whole new world of understanding cars, with batteries at the centre. This page provides background, the rethink batteries bring, the different battery technologies, though to how to car for batteries, and who makes what.

Why Car Makers are Lying about the storm.

Commenced: September 10, 2021

If you follow car industry publications, there both facts and well recognised predictions that combined, signal a storm for the car industry. Reality: Why The Makers Are Lying. In less than 5 years, electric vehicles will become less expensive than ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and are already significantly less expensive to maintain. Lower cost […]

Electric Cars 2025: ‘adding up’ will create a revolution. Who wins, who loses? China? Japan?

Commenced: May 4, 2021

I recently explored how in 2021, the numbers for EVs don’t really add up yet. One of the key discoveries, was that many sensible people are projecting EVs will reach ‘price parity’ by 2024-5. If this happens consider the trend: Looking deeper, there is every reason those predictions look real, and this will completely turn […]

EV Price-Parity: It’s here already – sometimes, and EVs are setting sales records in key segments.

Commenced: October 19, 2022 Updated: March 19th, 2023

2023 March 19 th: Revised "proof is in the sales" and "whats-here".

There already are some EVs with not just "Schrödinger's parity", but genuine price-parity winning not just awards, but topping sales charts. These are mostly from the Tesla and BYD duopoly, but they are not entirely alone. Beating ICE vehicles in sales chart is the best test for price-parity, and segment by segment, EV contenders are being launched. Yes, there are still many overpriced 'token EVs' that either exist to satisfy green requirements, provide products for brand loyalists demanding EV products, or help convince their makers "there is little demand for EVs". This is an evaluation of price parity, and a list of vehicles with price parity on the market. The previously subsidy free Australian market is the base, but with inclusion of key international. The implications for established brands, and brand loyalty were surprising.

EV or Hybrid: Pros & Cons of HEV, PHEV, EREV, Gas/Petrol/Diesel (ICEV) or BEV (Electric)?

Commenced: July 10, 2019 Updated: March 8th, 2023

2023 March 8 th: Hybrids and battery life.

Eventually, EVs will take over, but for most people even price parity EVs are still not 'there yet', and that take over could take 30 years. This webpaper compares vehicle types from "standard" gasoline/petrol and diesel vehicles, with hybrids, plug in hybrids and battery electric vehicles (EVs). There is a separate exploration of hydrogen vs battery electric cars, so this page is pros and cons of hybrids vs "standard" vehicles, or pure battery electric vehicles (EVs).

One pedal driving, lift-off regen and regen braking explained: reality, myths, hype, fads and Tesla vs the rest.

Commenced: May 12, 2023 Updated: March 3rd, 2023

2023 Mar 3 : Updated steer by wire.

Update in progress. To make sense of all the often seemingly conflicting information on "regen", one-pedal-driving, and how to best drive an EV, it can really help to understand that in most EVs the regenerative braking is fully integrated into the braking system and the two different regen system in use in EVs can suit two very different driving styles: 1. Lift-off regen: In all EVs and like engine braking in an ICEV. 2. Brake-by-wire regen, an additional regen system in most EVs. Confusion over these two systems is part of regen confusion, but there are many myths and so much misinformation about regen-braking, lift-off regen and one-pedal-driving including that "one-pedal-driving" is not the most efficient way of driving, and that the regen you feel from lift-off is not all the regen. Despite the fact there is so many myths leading to so much misinformation making it sound complex, driving an EV for optimum efficiency is usually extremely simple.

Tracking Legacy Car Brands Fall as EVs Rise.

Commenced: March 8, 2022 Updated: February 28th, 2023

*2024 Jan: Statistics update for VW, Mercedes, BMW,

We are in a time of disruption by electrification as planes, trains and automobiles, as well as shipping, all move to zero emission power. But it is the EV disruption of car industry that will have the biggest impact on consumers, and EVs have become "real" and desirable much sooner than many brands expected or wanted. New players such as Tesla, BYD and others will become the new leaders, and together with the globalisation of the EV centric Chinese car industry, combined, will take at least 50% of the market. So, what happens to the existing big brands of the legacy car industry sharing the remaining 50%? Either half die out, all halve in size, or some combination of both! The EV disruption will catch out many legacy car makers, with the shift skipping the anticipated interim step to hydrogen vehicles. There is a separate webpaper exploring why it is so difficult for legacy automakers to make a profit from EVs, and this page will track major 'legacy' brands through the transition to see which, if any, survive, as the new brands increase their market share.

The two speed EV transition: Manufactures vs consumers. (part 1)

Commenced: February 26, 2023

It is easy to underestimate how long it will take consumers to transition to EVs, and equally easy to underestimate how urgently manufactures need to transition to avoid collapse. Two transition speeds? Yes, brands will switch to EVs in their showroom by 2025 or risk failure, but in what seems like a complete disconnect, there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road past 2050. Around 10.5 million Electric Vehicles were delivered in 2022, which resulted in less than 0.7% of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles (ICEVs) being replaced by EVs during 2022, even those EVs represented 13% of new vehicles sales. The data shows that new car showrooms transition to EVs 20x faster than the roads, and vehicle manufacture transition 20x faster then the public, and while ICEVs will likely still around beyond 2050, vehicle makers that can't switch fast enough could collapse by 2030, bringing radical economic change.

BYD Atto 3 Australian Story.

Commenced: October 21, 2022 Updated: February 1st, 2023

2023 Feb 03- Jan 29: Software updates.

I started a page on the Atto 3 back in April 2022, but the launch in Australia has become so complex that it justifies a separate page, so here it is together with NZ information, starting with content moved from the original page, but updated. This is a page with details about the Australian, and New Zealand rollouts of the Atto 3 and the BYD brand, which from these humble beginnings, could become a major part of the automotive scene in both countries. For the general overview of the Atto 3, including information learnt from the experiences of owners, including those in Australia and New Zealand, see the main Atto 3 page. For the strange events around the Australian launch, and the use of the centre rear seat for baby capsules, read on!

EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?

Commenced: January 13, 2023

The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain 'cool', or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right. Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the 'legacy' automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla. Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is 'cool', shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.

BYD Atto 3 / Yuan Plus: The first 3rd wave EV arrives in Australia, and then the world.

Commenced: April 23, 2022 Updated: December 6th, 2022

2022 December 06 : Awards and sales results so far.

The Atto 3 (or Yuan Plus) is not only EV giant BYD's, first global car, has now become the 3rd largest selling EV globally. Launched as BYDs first global model and the first 3rd wave EV for the west, already outselling Tesla vehicles and #1 selling EV in some markets, the Atto 3 could even challenge to become the world's top selling vehicle. While BYD has exported cars before, the Atto 3 is based on the "global focused" e-platform 3.0, and with a more significant launch into larger markets than previous BYD tentative exports, should spearhead the international push of the world's largest new energy vehicle maker.

The Electric Vehicle Road Trip Problem: EVs in Australian and USA as Examples.

Commenced: September 14, 2021 Updated: December 3rd, 2022

2022 December 03 : Australia examples.

In theory, and under ideal conditions, an EV road trip with DC rapid charging can be as time efficient as travelling in an ICE vehicle. However, conditions are not always ideal. Some trips take much longer, and others can become problematic. Will EV road-trips ever become as convenient and dependable as traveling by ICE vehicle?

Surviving with an EV and no driveway: on street charging.

Commenced: November 20, 2022 Updated: November 20th, 2022

2022 Nov 20: First version.

People have for decades owned cars without needing to refuel at home, so it may not seem obvious just how important home charging is for owners of EVs. Various surveys confirm that 80% to 95% of EV charging happens at home and given that less than 80% of people have access to a space to be able to charge at home, those who can't charge at home are less likely to buy an EV. To understand the problem, try living with a mobile phone without charging at home, or at work.

EV Charging for Apartment complexes: A problem that can require a battle.

Commenced: November 14, 2022 Updated: November 15th, 2022

*2022 Nov 21: Started on V2G.

There are 3 approaches to residents of apartments being able to charge EVs: They can go elsewhere to charge. A small number of charging spaces will be provided. Provision for individuals to have charging at the designated car space is facilitated. This is a look at why charging and getting it right is a challenge for apartment complexes, those who want the problem to remain unsolved, and the merits of the possible solutions.

EV Charging Reference: Not just the new Refuelling.

Commenced: October 26, 2021 Updated: November 8th, 2022

2022 November 8 : The Apartment Carpark charging problem

This page covers a lot. Charging equipment and what to install and how to charge at home, and charging on road trips, through to the technical side, and a look at wireless and the future of charging. Plus, how recharging requires a complete rethink from refuelling, and how charging can be more convenient and match the speed of refueling. Public recharging infrastructure for EVs is growing but recharging at home will be most important for most people. Fully benefiting from having an EV, requires understanding, being prepared for recharging.

Charge Time Calculator: Configured for Atto 3.

Commenced: September 27, 2022 Updated: September 27th, 2022

*2022 September 28: Added charge loss calculations and moved loss setting to 1st page.

This is a charge time calculator, which can be set to the charge curve of any car, but defaults to the values for the Atto 3.

The 3rd EV wave: Tesla and the Chinese are coming, and in a hurry!

Commenced: September 7, 2022 Updated: September 7th, 2022

*2022 September 21: restructure and updated links

EVs can be divided into 3 waves: EVs that people can use despite limitations including the Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, i-MiEV, and Zoe. Then EVs are truly competitive in premium and enthusiast markets: Tesla Model 3, then Model Y. Mainstream EVs at the Tesla Model A/2 price point, but so far from China, not Tesla. While China has been another world for EVs, with price competitive EVs from US$5,000, only now in 2022 is the rest of the world getting its first 3rd wave EVs, and so far, they all come from China. Teslas were sold globally, but every other EV, was either an EV not sold in China, or a Chinese only EV. Two separate worlds of EVs, that have begun a hurried unification and bring 3rd wave EVs and automotive industry disruption to the entire world.

Solar Electric Vehicle Future: What you can, and can’t do with solar power.

Commenced: May 29, 2022 Updated: September 1st, 2022

2022 Sept 08: Solar botanic trees.

There are solar boats and even a solar plane already, yet the solar vehicles we hear most about, solar cars, are as of early 2022, not yet on sale. However, that is about to change with at least 3 solar powered cars nearing production. The situation with solar cars is almost identical to the early days of EVs. Plus, the solar does not have to be built into the vehicle to enable solar powered travel. This page will be updated as solar vehicles come to market.

A deeper look how EVs impact the power grid.

Commenced: August 14, 2022 Updated: August 15th, 2022

2022 Aug 15: Added notes on solar.

What is the real answer to how the grid will cope? First the answer from an actual power company, a link to one from a popular vlogger, both of which should placate most people, although neither is water tight as both skip over some details critical to the full answer. And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.

Why Hydrogen Cars are not the future, and EVs are here to stay.

Commenced: January 3, 2018 Updated: August 1st, 2022

*2023 December 10 th : Updated market data in introduction.

After friend told me "I am not interested in electric cars, because I will wait for hydrogen cars", I did the research, and found that such a future no longer makes any sense and will never happen. It turns out that hydrogen cars were never desirable and only viable if EVs remained impractical. Hydrogen vehicles have now been surpassed for charge times and range and they were only ever anexpensive to build and operate, higher emissions, limited interim stop gaps, for the time until we reduced the limitations of battery EVs.

EV Battery swapping: Recharge or Refuel?

Commenced: March 20, 2022 Updated: July 16th, 2022

*2022 Aug 17: Link to NIO swap vs XPeng fast charging

There is a full exploration of recharging electric vehicles on another page, but there is an a "refuelling" alternative to recharging: battery swapping. With electrical appliances in the past, when the batteries went flat, we swapped them. Then rechargeable batteries became popular so we could avoid throwing out the old batteries, but I swap first and then recharge. It turns out, we can also do that with cars, and it is happening already. Battery swapping, take only around 5 minutes, but so does recharging the latest batteries. Battery swapping will likely play a key role in the future, but not necessarily the role many expect.

EV range: Anxieties vs realities & needs and the “real-world range” myth.

Commenced: November 10, 2021 Updated: June 1st, 2022

2022 June 8: Initial restructure, added range optimisation section on getting the best range.

This is a look at range, covering from how no one number accurately describes an EV's range and driving the full range of EV outside of emergencies just wastes time, through why range is so unlike that of fossil fuelled vehicles and optimising range is all about efficiency, through to what range a person needs around the town or for highway driving. Range with EVs is such a different experience that novices can feel anxiety, despite that in practice running out of charge in EVs happens no more than ICE vehicles run out of gas. While EV range is getting closer to ICEV range, most EVs, unlike the Lightyear One pictured here, aren't solar and most EVs still don't match the range of internal combustion engine cars for highway driving, but the convenience of background charging means range with EVs is usually only a limitation on relatively rare road trips.

EV Range & Economy: Decoding the Numbers.

Commenced: May 1, 2021 Updated: May 24th, 2022

2022 May 24: added link to article on WLTP range is really calculated.

The key specification for EVs so far has been 'range'. But how are the numbers measured, will range specific match reality, and can the number even be compared? It turns out there are even 3 different standards for measuring range, and they give very different answers! Further, why have we moved from 'economy' to 'range'? Is there still even economy with EVs?

The electrical grid, V2G and EV Home Charging: Missing an opportunity for the planet.

Commenced: February 26, 2022 Updated: March 15th, 2022

*2022 Dec 16: Fully charged

Move to renewables for energy, and electricity for transport, and we solve the climate problem. But renewables require storage, and uptake of EVs requires home charging, and there is a cost to both. But what if electric vehicles could solve the "green power grid" problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality, and reduce costs? It turns out this dream scenario is definitely possible but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem is solved.

Personal Mobility Advance: Unagi Model One Electric Scooter. Unagi Model 11 Mystery.

Commenced: February 14, 2022

(see the mystery below). Way back in 2001, Dean Kamen launched the Segway, heralding a new era in personal mobility. Although the Segway did not deliver that new era, it is possible he was onto something that is gradually becoming a reality. This is a look at how far the Unagi E500 model one electric scooter advances personal mobility, and what broader steps technology has made towards personal mobility.

2022: Year Of The EV take over, and beginning of the end for the ‘Legacy’ Industry.

Commenced: February 6, 2022

By the end of 2022, Electric Vehicles (EVs) will be the choice for the majority of all new car buyers worldwide. In practice, while Asia and Europe will see EVs at over 50% market share, delivery in some key markets where EVs currently have around 5% market share to around 20% by year end, but the end of the internal combustion engine will clearly be looming. The motor vehicle industry, sales and servicing, will see upheaval with the majority of current players headed forced close or sell out.

Vehicles And Mobility: Road Trips and Other Superpowers.

Commenced: October 25, 2021 Updated: February 25th, 2022

*2022 Sept 16: just typos, and links.

All tools can bestow superpowers and motor vehicles are no exception.Superpowers provided by motor vehicles include the ability to quickly travel and transport goods and people on local trips, and the quite different but key superpower to travel to new and more distant places on road trips. .

Electric Vehicle Tipping Point in 2022: An end to EV subsidies?

Commenced: November 23, 2021

I heard someone ask, “if EV (Electric Vehicle) sales continue to increase exponentially at the same rate, how long before all sales are EVs”? While exponential growth is no more sustainable for EVs than for anything else, the underlying statistics and real answer made me realise, EVs will probably reach an tipping point as soon […]

ScoMo Ingenious EV Plan: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, leading climate action blocker, stretching the truth again?

Commenced: November 19, 2021 Updated: November 19th, 2021

*2022 March 8: Minor typos and fixes.

After a long history resisting action on climate change, the Australian government finally 'committed' to net zero by 2050, and then did an about face from their previous 'anti-EV' stance and announced support for electric vehicles. Or did they?

Hydrogen Future or Fool’s Gold & Scams: “Where does the hydrogen come from?”

Commenced: October 24, 2021 Updated: October 24th, 2021

*2023 May 17 th: Updated synopsis and revised.

The race to stop CO2, has led to many 'scam' projects involving hydrogen, but it is not always clear who is being scammed: the public, or the proponents of hydrogen projects. What is the attraction behind the obsession with hydrogen? This is a look at the motives, the myths and the facts around hydrogen projects. Spoiler: There are some valid roles for hydrogen, but hydrogen has no remaining role as an energy source, and even any potential role as an energy carrier is highly questionable.

EV Charging Systems: Reference

Commenced: May 20, 2021 Updated: May 10th, 2021

*2022 September 7: Added Ac charging current control for CCS

I have been exploring electric vehicles. What is needed to make them affordable, and what it is like to live with them. When exploring charging, the charging systems became so complex that I have extracted what I found as its own exploration, which I plan to keep updated as a reference. It currently does need an update for wireless charging, but some information can be found on my exploration of the logistics of charging.

Electric Cars: 2021, EVs Just Don’t add up (yet).

Commenced: April 19, 2021 Updated: April 19th, 2021

*2023 December 10 : Reformatted without content change.

Right now, without subsidies, buying an electric car does not objectively add up. Currently there is a price premium, and as a result EVs only appeal to those happy to pay a premium to indulge a passion. Some buyers are prepared to pay a premium for the environment, "the future" or the acceleration, but right now, buying is driven by passion and/or subsidies.

Autonomous Cars: What’s needed and are Lidar & Maps Fools-Gold

Commenced: December 16, 2017 Updated: December 16th, 2017

*to follow - more analysis on the road ahead, and technology updates.

One image of a driverless cars is a Google car with a very prominent LIDAR device on the roof. This is a look at the technologies and the needs of self drive systems, and where things are at in 2017. There is logic to the suggestion by Elon Must that LIDAR is not needed, but there is also logic to suggesting that the steps forward form where we are to true autonomous may be a lot more challenging than it appears.