Transition to EVs & Renewables: Problems and progress.

Once the darling of Hollywood in the wake of "green" image built by the Prius hybrid, Toyota has more recently prompted shareholder complaints, and calls for boycotts by climate groups in response to Toyota anti-climate action and anti-EV lobbying that has seen the company reach the status of no 3 climate enemy company in the world, behind only Exxon-Mobil and Chevron. Either Toyota is ideologically against action on climate change, or senior management see no way for Toyota to survive the EV transition.

There are many claims that EVs result in more emissions than fossil fuelled vehicles. The reality is that even when an EV is powered from a 'dirty' grid, it is clear that driving an EV does creates less emissions. Plus, although some EVs create more 'build emissions', EVs still have less lifetime emissions, even on today's grids. The EV transition will reduce emissions provided it is not rushed. But the transition still won't produce the desired emissions until the grid is also clean, and it will take decades to replace traditional vehicles on any sensible schedule. Buying an EV is better for the environment in the long term than buying an ICE vehicle but can be worse for the environment than just keeping the current vehicle. The key finding is that while it is best to stop buying so many new ICE vehicles ASAP, there should be no rush to replace existing ICE vehicles with EVs, and instead allow existing vehicles the around two decades until their normal scrap date.

We are in a time of disruption by electrification as planes, trains and automobiles, as well as shipping, all move to zero emission power. But it is the EV disruption of car industry that will have the biggest impact on consumers, and EVs have become "real" and desirable much sooner than many brands expected or wanted. New players such as Tesla, BYD and others will become the new leaders, and together with the globalisation of the EV centric Chinese car industry, combined, will take at least 50% of the market. So, what happens to the existing big brands of the legacy car industry sharing the remaining 50%? Either half die out, all halve in size, or some combination of both! The EV disruption will catch out many legacy car makers, with the shift skipping the anticipated interim step to hydrogen vehicles. There is a separate webpaper exploring why it is so difficult for legacy automakers to make a profit from EVs, and this page will track major 'legacy' brands through the transition to see which, if any, survive, as the new brands increase their market share.

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price? This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to "Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?" and "Why make vehicles at a loss?". Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive from 2021 is a likely contender.

What is the real answer to how the grid will cope? First the answer from an actual power company, a link to one from a popular vlogger, both of which should placate most people, although neither is water tight as both skip over some details critical to the full answer. And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.