Transition to EVs & Renewables: Problems and progress.

Once the darling of Hollywood in the wake of "green" image built by the Prius hybrid, Toyota has more recently prompted shareholder complaints, and calls for boycotts by climate groups in response to Toyota anti-climate action and anti-EV lobbying that has seen the company reach the status of no 3 climate enemy company in the world, behind only Exxon-Mobil and Chevron. Either Toyota is ideologically against action on climate change, or senior management see no way for Toyota to survive the EV transition.

There are many claims that EVs result in more emissions than fossil fuelled vehicles. The reality is that even when an EV is powered from a 'dirty' grid, it is clear that driving an EV creates less emissions. What is less clear, is whether the emission reduction when driven justifies the emissions that are created when building the EV? Buying an EV is better for the environment in the long term than buying an ICE vehicle but can be worse for the environment than not buying any new vehicle at all. The key finding is that while it is best to stop buying so many new ICE vehicles ASAP, there should be no rush to replace existing ICE vehicles with EVs, and instead allow existing vehicles the around two decades until their normal scrap date.

Electric vehicles have become desirable "real" cars much sooner than many brands expected or wanted. We are in a time of disruption by electrification as planes, trains and automobiles, as well as shipping, all move to electric power, but it is the car industry that will be most disrupted. New players such as Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and others, combined with the globalisation of the EV centric Chinese car industry, will take around 50% of the market. So what happens to the existing big brands of the legacy car industry? Either half die out, all halve in size, or some combination of both.

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price? This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to "Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?" and "Why make vehicles at a loss?". Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive from 2021 is a likely contender.

What is the real answer to how the grid will cope? First the answer from an actual power company, a link to one from a popular vlogger, both of which should placate most people, although neither is water tight as both skip over some details critical to the full answer. And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.