March 10, 2021 – One Finite Planet

One Finite Planet

Topics and Subtopics.

Environmental Damage: The Overpopulation Indicator

March 10, 2021 March 10, 2021

Overpopulation is when there when population cannot exist sustainably without damage to the environment.

Warnings of overpopulation often focus on the eventual starvation that could occur following environmental collapse, rather than the time bomb of declining living conditions for multiple species.

Although such a substantial human population existing unsustainably wreaks havoc on the planet, borrowing from the future though unsustainable agriculture can delay any starvation for decades.

However, as those who profit from overpopulation are sufficiently rich that they can improve their living conditions even as average resources per person declines, the wealthy will keep advocating “population growth is the path to prosperity”. But can we risk becoming an Easter Island story by prioritising population growth to please the billionaires over a return to sustainability?

Environment & Climate: The race against natural climate change.

The climate is always changing.

The good news has been that Earth's surface went from molten rock to now supporting the bloom of visible life we see today as the Phanerozoic Eon, but the bad news is the bloom, and current wonderful conditions are just a brief moment, as the surface will naturally return to being too hot for any life to survive. Plus, as watching a volcano shows, things have cooled little inside Earth and while Earth currently has a relatively cool thin crust, relatively no thicker than an eggshell, it is still almost entirely a very hot planet.

Environment: We shouldn’t be cast as the bad guys.

And yes, environment and climate are always changing.

Even though we are creating quite a mess right now, realistically it's nature and natural environment and climate changes, not us humans, that will end all life one Earth. This look at the big picture of the history of environment and climate reveals while "Mother Earth" does seem quite nurturing right now, this planet is normally hostile to all life beyond "just slime" made up of microbes like those we kill we must kill to sterilize medical equipment. What we are enjoying is the equivalent of the brief bloom of life in the desert after rain.

Yes, our technology brings risks and may "poke the bear", but without technology, when that "grizzly bear of natural climate change" wakes from its current short hibernation, we, and the species we cherish could perish. Following "the flip" not just us but all other complex life and even the microbes, eventually are doomed. For us humans, the threat is real and immediate.

Or is it that, natural changes to climate, like "bears", are part of nature and nature would never harm us?

Population & immigration: Conflict and deception.

Immigration is short-term symptom of a potential long-term problem of the challenges to targeting an ideal population. We live an overpopulated planet where many governments use immigration to boost what would be otherwise falling population numbers while blaming 'illegals' for the very real negative consequences for their citizens from the boost to the population. It can be argued that reaching sustainability would address the question of overpopulation, but what would it take to end the need for deception, resolve the conflict, and have everyone work towards the conditions experienced in the countries with highest levels of happiness?

Pop. Principles

Environment sensitive reproduction rates: parents instinctively seek maximum opportunities for kids.

Human birth rates are falling at a rate that has some fearing population collapse, but could this be a natural instinctive biological response to ensure optimum population of the future generation, rather than any cause for alarm? Looking at nature, clearly it is not just the species with maximum children that survive as the fittest, but the species with the optimum number of children. Most species don't just multiply whenever possible at maximum rate like bacteria in petri dish and survival of the fittest doesn't just mean the species with the maximum children, it means the right number and at the right time. Analysing mechanism that vary reproduction in other species may provide some interesting insights and possible answers to at least a large part of what is happing with human birth-rates that will determine whether our future is population is one of: continued growth, collapse, or stability, on a planet where population of all life is not growing.

Overpopulation?

Population: Our greatest achievement may yet cause our demise.

Arguably mankind's greatest achievement, the near eradication of infant mortality, has resulted in a population explosion resulting in overpopulation that we prefer not to mention, even though it may yet kill us. Technically we would not die from overpopulation itself, just as people don't really die from "old age", and the real risk is that an already present threat will be exacerbated and become fatal because through our greed we ignore overpopulation. Unlike old age, the overpopulation risk factor could be avoided or reversed, we may be influenced by economists dependant on Ponzi schemes, the worlds' largest corporations and billionaires who thrive off the resultant increases in inequality into believing that living conditions required by ever increasing population levels benefit everyone and not just those living in mansions.

Population Economics + People Farming

Population Growth Advocacy: Mislead Immigration Support, or Greed & Tribalism?

In Australia, as in many countries, there appears to be almost universal acceptance of perpetual population growth. Population growth is seen as: Desirable because it is the path to economic prosperity. Inevitable. A requirement for supporting refugees. None reflect reality. So why is it, that so few contemplate a finite population target, given we live on a finite planet?

Climate Change: the hot planetary boundary

Did Al Gore nail it: Is climate change merely inconvenient, or is it an existential threat?

Claims that +1.5oC warming would be 'catastrophic', and that climate change represents an 'existential threat' can be quite vague as just what is 'catastrophic' or an 'existential threat'? This webpaper, seeks to translate 'catastrophic' outcomes and 'existential threats' into more concrete outcomes. "We recognise climate change is a serious problem and are committed to net zero by 2050 in order to prevent the disastrous consequences anticipated to occur by around 2026" Typical government position: Is it ok?

Explosion

Population Explosion: How did we get to 8 billion people?

Humanity has just experienced a population explosion. Whether you study population or believe we are overpopulated or not, the facts are that we have just had a population explosion. Over two centuries of population reaching 50x higher than the historical long-term population growth, and even peaking at 100x higher than historical averages. Yet thought explosion including during the baby boom, women were having less babies than ever before, and as the number keeps falling the boom is ending. So, what caused the boom, why was there a population explosion even when birth rates were falling? Could our population grow until we are living life like battery hens, or birth-rates keep falling leading to population collapse?

Population Milestones and Predictions

planetary boundaries & beyond

Covid-19

Peak Population 2055: Really? That soon?

Commenced: April 30, 2019

Is it realistic that Earth could reach peak population by 2055? Is there really already the largest number of under 35s on Earth there will ever be? Peak newborns already? What is the reality, and what are the implications?

V2G, V2H, V2L, bi-directional EV / EV-Hybrid charging: Solar or not, it changes energy bills!

Commenced: March 19, 2025

This is a look at the V2-GHL technologies, how they work, and how they are going to impact EVs & future energy and energy prices for not just EV, EV-PHEV EV-Hybrid owners, but for everyone. Its 3 years since the March 2022 "The electrical grid, V2G and EV Home Charging" web page was published on OneFinitePlanet.org website, and now in 2025 its all happening.

Natural Climate Change: Surprises from Nature!

Commenced: November 10, 2019 Updated: September 13th, 2024

2024 September 13 : Added Poking the bear.

There is a lot of focus on climate change caused by humans, as there should be! But this focus can miss just how fragile the environment is even without us humans breaking things. This page looks at some of the surprises are in store when we explore natural climate change. This exploration of natural changes, and the history and future of changes even without human interference as background relevant when considering the potential impact of man-made climate change. A big surprise is that life on Earth is already naturally on a downward spiral, and Earths 'carrying capacity' for all life is in natural decline already. The natural decline is far more gradual than possible impact of humans but does illustrate the fragility of nature. Fortunately, we have millions of years to develop solutions to avoid the worst natural climate disasters, provided we first find a way to avoid prematurely destroying the already fragile natural environment ourselves.

How big is the US illegal immigration problem and can Trump solve it?

Commenced: May 30, 2024 Updated: July 20th, 2024

*2024 October 17 : Replace link to Pew Research chart with saved copy.

Let me start by saying I do feel unauthorised migration over the US southern border has become a genuine problem and it would be reduced under Donald Trump. However, I also feel this problem is grossly misrepresented for political advantage, and even the southern border is better managed under Trump, it is not the real immigration problem and will make little difference to other very real problems facing the average American citizen. Not that Democrats are any better on the real problem. Joe Biden is so committed on using migration to grow the economy that he even labelled allies "xenophobic" for not using immigration to grow their economy, plus Biden trusts economic indicators telling him the economy is fine, instead of the US citizens telling him it isn't.

2023: On all paths, disruption is imminent & proactive beats reactive.

Commenced: August 27, 2023

The question is, do we seriously disrupt an economic system transitioning too slowly from fossil fuels, or wait until the system is disrupted by extreme weather. Most likely, we deal with a mix of both disruptions. We are living through many trends that are unsustainable for even another decade, and while it is not certain which trend reaching its tipping point will cause the greatest disruption, the environment and rising CO2 levels will play a key role by at the latest 2033. While some righteous environmentalists protest for everyone to embrace austerity and simply just stop burning fossil fuels, the action required is putting in place alternatives. In practice we can't switch off without alternatives, and progress on alternatives is progressing too slowly in a failing effort to avoid disrupting economies and the establishment. Reality is both the extreme weather events that further motivate action and those actions themselves will cause disruption, which will both combine with the disruption from AI and the collapse of economic Ponzi schemes.

Births Per Woman: Not quite what you would expect.

Commenced: August 12, 2019 Updated: May 23rd, 2024

2024 May 23 : Added the natural population growth calculator.

TLDR; The magic number is around 2.3, not the 2.0 you might expect, results in a stable population. This is an exploration of what 'births per woman' means, and how it is measured. Key to discussion about population is population growth, which is most commonly analysed from 'births per woman', which is also called 'fertility rate'. But what is 'births per woman'? Answer: not quite what you might expect, which means a small adjustment is required for interpreting births per woman when predicting population growth.

Ideal/optimum human population: How many people can, or should, each country, and the whole planet support?

Commenced: April 11, 2023 Updated: May 1st, 2024

2024 May 6th: Second edition, fully revised to hopefully improve clarity.

It seems like the human population has forever been growing, but any analysis makes it clear growth must stop eventually at some level. Perhaps consider that the wealthier each person, the less people the planet can support when answering the question of at what level should growth stop? Do we go for the maximum possible people just before everything collapses, even if average living standards could be far better with a smaller population? When caged hens are farmed for eggs, people advocate for a lower population to allow living free-range for a better existence, yet with people being farmed by multinationals, billionaires and politicians growing the human population to grow the economy, it seems that denser and denser housing and reduced resources per person for human workers is accepted. Most countries seem to agree that global population growth should end but and state that ends its own population growth faces economic disaster.

China Population Surprise: Peak Population in 2022.

Commenced: December 19, 2021 Updated: April 7th, 2024

2024 April 7 : One Child Policy birthrates myths analysed.

I read a story on population in China that I found surprising in three ways. 1. The story reports China has already reached peak population. 2. The author believes that despite over 700 million people in China in around 1970 being considered too many people, 1.4 billion people today is not enough. 3. Population growth is even suggested as a solution to the problems of housing and education.

Paradox Resolved: Parents wanting best for children drives falling birth rates, not women’s education.

Commenced: March 6, 2021 Updated: April 6th, 2024

2024 April 6 : Added debunking myth humans coped with high population growth future "The Population Bomb" feared.

Surprisingly, humanity is at 'peak child' and looks to be heading to population stability. The population explosion may arguably have left us with an overpopulated planet, but the explosion is ending, due to 'births' per woman falling from over 6 prior to 1900, and to around 2.2 in 2022. Some Economists panic about that and fear humans 'leaving peak population' and correcting to a lower population, even though that could benefit most of us. When first analysing the population explosion, I found a paradox as popular explanations for the fall in birth-rates like the "education of women" and other coincidence theories simply don't fit all the data. No, the Taliban are not onto something, as the real best answer is that people are motivated to have the number of children to give those children the best life possible in environment and situation, which may require environmental security and reducing inequality to limit the economist nightmare of further falls in birthrates.

Population Growth Change Lag: The Population Pipeline

Commenced: May 16, 2016 Updated: March 3rd, 2024

2024 March 3 : Update in progress for page format and clarity, but not a new edition.

Even after the "peak child" the population on this planet could continue to grow for decades, as the "population pipeline" creates inertia and a situation analogous to how a super tanker can continue forward even after the engines have stopped, or even switched to reverse. Population growth is the difference between the number of people who are born, and the number of people who die, and as there is a lifetime delay between those two events, at any one time the people being born are from a world separated by many generations from . People enter the population pipeline at birth and remain in the pipeline until they die, which on the current world average current world average of 73, which means deaths today reflect the global population of 73 years ago.

Peak Child: When, and what does it mean?

Commenced: May 25, 2016 Updated: February 26th, 2024

2024 Feb 26 : Update in progress.

Globally, peak child arrived just a few years after this was first published, although this global picture is not experience at every individual location. Data now clearly confirms that globally, the world has returned to 'peak child', ending of three centuries of a population explosion, and perhaps even millennia of more gradual growth prior to the explosion. Return to peak child means we could either return to the gradual growth levels of prior to the industrial revolution or become a mature species and exist in balance with nature and other living things. Perhaps even stop displacing other species?

Surprises from life expectancy, the ageing population and the path to immortality.

Commenced: May 17, 2022 Updated: February 10th, 2024

2024 Feb 10 th: Updated synopsis and added elderly mortality.

Why your own life expectancy is greater than the average, and the rise in life expectancy from the just 32 years at the start of 20th to now being over 70 years by the 21st century does not mean what most people think. What has changed is less about ever longer lifespans, and more about people living an increasing percentage of the same full lifespan. Despite the lower life expectancy during earlier times, most famous figures lived to around age 70 not only in 1900 but even 2,000 years ago and Ramesses the Great lived to 90 back over 3,000 years ago! Infants are rarely famous, and as it is the reduction of child mortality that has the biggest impact on life-expectancy, despite the ageing population you don't see as much difference when looking at how long adults live, but we may soon!

Decades long EV transition with no green quick fix.

Commenced: June 9, 2022 Updated: February 5th, 2024

2024 Feb 5 th: Revised introduction synopsis and transition acceleration calculations.

Despite many claims that EVs have a dirty secret in that they are not really green at all, the real secret is how long it takes for the green payback. The claims are based on two realities: 1) the driving of EVs still results in emissions when EVs are charged from our current dirty electrical grids, and 2) the building of EVs also creates emissions, and sometimes increased emissions over building ICEVs. However real data from critical studies shows that even in the worst case, overall, an high build emission inefficient EVs charged from a dirty grid still result in less emissions than ICEV. Just in that extreme case, only a marginal reducing in emissions! However, already not all grids are "dirty grids" and as vehicles have an average lifespan of over 20 years either dirty grids will improve during that 20 years or we may have bigger problems. Build emissions from EVs largely track EV prices, and Wright's law dictates both EV prices build emissions will soon fall below those for ICEVs. The real conclusion from examining this question, is there is no quick fix green EV transition, but any delay in reducing production of ICE vehicles is creating …

Population on a Finite World: A zero-sum game with no vacancies.

Commenced: July 21, 2021 Updated: November 19th, 2023

2023 November 19: 2nd Edition with clarified rules and "garden of Eden events" explained.

From childhood I had assumed human population was growing because the world was not yet fully populated and life was still expanding, but reality is most the recent "garden of Eden scenario" occurred over 500 million years ago, and since then the planet has been fully occupied with a total biosphere of life in fact gradually shrinking. It turns out that no species on Earth can keep increasing population without quicky on geological timescales reaching its population limit. How has the human population kept growing if we have long been at our limit? By raising our limit through accessorised evolution and in turn lowering the environmental limits of other species. We have been, by the same principle of evolution Darwin declared "survival of the fittest" that allows new species to arise and grow their populations, competition from humans has been partially or fully "evicting" other species from their environmental niches. While when there were less humans this had little impact, it has now reached a scale labelled the Anthropocene where, if the human population continues to evolve and grow, other species face decline or face extinction.

We can’t run out of fossil fuels.

Commenced: April 10, 2021 Updated: August 1st, 2023

2023 August 1: added synopsis and clarifications.

In the 1970s, there were the 'Oil Crises'. Then, and at other times it has been suggested that one key reason for moving to renewables, is that as there is only a finite supply of fossil fuels which will come to an end one day. But when? There is also a mistaken belief that 'peak oil' projections are a result of supplies of fossil fuels becoming exhausted. Whether you are worried oil supplies will run out, or are hoping oil supplies will run out, although prices may rise, they won't run out. In fact, we can't possibly use all fossil fuel.

Righteous environmentalism: an opium for the people concerned about climate.

Commenced: May 20, 2023 Updated: July 27th, 2023

2023 July 27 : Full update of complete page.

There is a real need to protect the environment, and advocacy for the environment is great, but that advocacy can acquire traits of a religion, which at the extreme can even result in far-right eco-terrorism, and more in the mainstream can result in righteous environmentalism and embracing austerity and sacrifices as "an opium". The "righteous environmentalists" preach this austerity as necessary life of the future to an audience that just see the rich becoming even richer. This blindly serves an alternate agenda and needlessly alienates and disenfranchises much of the population. The result is do-nothing politicians to get re-elected instead of motivating voters for real action on climate change and electing leaders who will act.

Cost of coal power vs renewables: China expanding coal while the suckers go green?

Commenced: July 19, 2023

If coal fired power can no longer compete on price, then why is China building two new coal power plants per week? Is China somehow able to use coal fired electricity to gain a competitive advantage against western manufacturing which increasingly relies on "clean green" but more expensive energy, with the result that emissions and jobs are simply transferred to China? The current politics of climate agreements encourage rich countries to offshore some emissions to those countries often forced to be more reliant coal and with higher emissions. Could we fix the problem of China syndrome emissions if there was the political will?

Carbon Capture and Storage works for e-Fuels but not for fossil fuels or ‘blue hydrogen’.

Commenced: February 20, 2022 Updated: June 2nd, 2023

2023 June 2nd : Updated and restructured text, fixed dated links and added synopsis.

Full sequestration of carbon is the reverse of burning fossil fuels. Full sequestration does work and is part of the process of producing E-Fuels and the process of photosynthesis in plants. But full sequestration requires at least as much energy as can be extracted from the forms of previously sequestrated carbon that we call "fossil fuels". What can't work, is the illusion of using energy from fossil fuels to reverse the process of burning those same fossil fuels, and then still having a form energy left to sell as a product. Yet that is exactly the "blue hydrogen" proposition.

Base load Solar and Wind: Renewables alone not a substitute for fossil fuels.

Commenced: April 14, 2021 Updated: May 16th, 2023

2023 May 16th: Updated synopsis and added more on "green baseload" strategies.

At least, not a direct substitute. Solar and Wind have proven to be successful partial cost-effective substitutes for fossil fuels, but fossil fuels are stored energy, and solar and wind are not. Renewables are a disruption, and disruptions are usually not one-for-one substitutions. There are two strategies for replacing fossil fuels in the grid, and they can be used together: 1: Add energy storage for when renewable energy levels fall below a threshold. 2: Base load "solar and wind": Design to provide base load at a low threshold of wind and light. Without such strategies, it is impossible to reach the goal of removing reliance on fossil fuels. With the right strategy, it is possible to realise benefits go far beyond just replacement.

COP26: Were The Deck Chairs Sufficiently Shuffled?

Commenced: October 29, 2021

COP26. It sounds like a police officer who can't be named. For me it raises questions such as: Why "COP26" and what happened to the first 25 COPs?Are all decisions are made in advance, or is anything really agreed at the conference?Is there more than politicians and fossil fuel companies agreeing spin and token gestures?

Beyond COP26: 1.5°C Now Ensured, Where Next?

Commenced: November 4, 2021

COP27: Climate change action sabotage?

Commenced: November 16, 2022

Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations. The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost. This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.

Why wait? We should end population growth NOW!

Commenced: November 5, 2021 Updated: March 22nd, 2023

2023 March 22 nd: Synopsis added.

I have been asked on a few occasions, why not end population growth now? It is not like we need to get more people before population growth should stop! Japan has stopped population growth, why not the rest of us? What are we waiting for?

Big Oil, AKA Big Fossil: How real, and what about ‘big climate’?

Commenced: June 7, 2022 Updated: February 27th, 2023

2023 Feb 27: Added Elon Musk section, details on oil revenues and slightly updated synopsis.

Yes, big oil with value at over US$7 billion per day in revenue at stake clearly has a vested interest in arguing against climate change and downplaying risks, but on the other hand, aren't there also vested interests exaggerating and overstating the risks of climate change? Effectively could 'big renewables', 'big science' or 'big climate', be out lobbying and out promoting 'big fossil'? Is this really a balanced fight, or is it more like the might of 'big tobacco' vs 'whistle blower medical research' all over again? This is a look at the financial might on each side of the argument, and the respective motives for each side to overstate their case.

The Power struggle in Australia.

Commenced: November 1, 2022 Updated: November 1st, 2022

2022 November 1: First published.

From "the biggest corruption scandal ever" in Brazil, problems in Venezuela, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Iran, to the problems caused by lobbyists against action on climate change, an abundance of fossil fuels is a source of political power, yet rarely force for good, and Australia, with a wealth of coal and gas, is not spared. The current crisis in Ukraine not only drives up energy prices globally, but it also creates a dilemma for gas producing nations.

Why population growth even before the explosion?

Commenced: August 21, 2022 Updated: August 15th, 2022

2022 August 15: First published.

Throughout history, although no other species on Earth has experienced such long term overall population growth, even before the recent population explosion, the human population kept slowly growing. Yes, we recently had an unprecedented population explosion, driven by the near elimination of previously tragic rate of infant mortality, but against a background of more gradual long-term growth, many of us may have never even realised we just had a population explosion. But what drove that long-term population growth even before the explosion, and what will now happen as the explosion ends?

Why Hydrogen Cars are not the future, and EVs are here to stay.

Commenced: January 3, 2018 Updated: August 1st, 2022

*2023 December 10 th : Updated market data in introduction.

After friend told me "I am not interested in electric cars, because I will wait for hydrogen cars", I did the research, and found that such a future no longer makes any sense and will never happen. It turns out that hydrogen cars were never desirable and only viable if EVs remained impractical. Hydrogen vehicles have now been surpassed for charge times and range and they were only ever anexpensive to build and operate, higher emissions, limited interim stop gaps, for the time until we reduced the limitations of battery EVs.

The daunting steps to the multiplanetary species Sci-Fi dream of new home planets.

Commenced: May 31, 2016 Updated: July 26th, 2022

2022 July 26: Rewrite to update on "planets and moons" progress of colonising the solar system.

There is a dream, often explored in science fiction, where humanity inhabits not just one planet, but many. While the dream is still centuries away, as is 'Earth 2.0', the reality, working towards small outposts on Mars or the Moon or even beyond is overwhelmingly compelling and can provide many rewards. Humanity may get minor outposts, but for centuries, will have no real second home, and over 99% of us will still need to live on our one finite planet.

The Population Growth Economy Ponzi schemes.

Commenced: February 24, 2015 Updated: July 1st, 2022

2022 July 6th: Refresh and reformat.

When it dawned on me that global economy is effectively a Ponzi scheme, it felt was a 'light bulb' moment'. But has anyone else seen this? I did an internet search and was not surprised to find that it has, indeed, dawned on many others as well. If you do a search, as I did, you will find many insights into this topic and that there are several different ways the global economy can be seen as a Ponzi scheme. Scary!

Ghost cities and ghost homes: housing finance crisis?

Commenced: June 15, 2022 Updated: June 22nd, 2022

2022 June 22 : Updated to add information on how desperate developers now accept grain as a deposit.

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”Attributed to Kenneth Boulding in: United States. Congress. House (1973) This applies to not just to population growth, but just maybe also to the growth in value of housing. This page is a look at 'ghost cities' and 'ghost homes', and the window they provide into how distorted investment can become in the pursuit of growth. The end result of the distortions can be overvalued assets funded by highly leveraged ordinary citizens. If that is the case, not just with ghost cities but beyond, the correction will clearly present a financial crisis.

New York, Sweden and the case for herd immunity.

Commenced: April 28, 2020

This post examines the idea that achieving herd immunity from an outbreak of Coiv-19 just might be a solid strategy. Not ‘let it rip’ herd immunity, which I will also review, but managed and optimised herd immunity where death and serious illness is kept to the lowest level possible. Two locations with that may have […]

The Potential Scale and Impact of population growth: 7 trillion humans?

Commenced: March 8, 2017

7 trillion looks like a typo, but no, the maths shows that either by continuing the actual global population growth levels typical the 20th century, or achieving 2% per year (or far less than what is currently happening in Nigeria), the maths produce this number in a relatively short time! Alternatively, consider that if we […]

Covid-19 Immunity: Layers, immunity from vaccination vs infection, and the good news.

Commenced: December 5, 2021

Shrek: No. Layers. Onions have layers. Ogres have layers. Onions have layers. You get it? We both have layers.Shrek Instead of a single immune response, the human immune system can be though of as having several layers of immune response, that all fade at different rates. Immunity is a complex set of different layers all subject to change over time at varying rates, making comparison between immunity following vaccination or infection highly time dependant.

The electrical grid, V2G and EV Home Charging: Missing an opportunity for the planet.

Commenced: February 26, 2022 Updated: March 15th, 2022

*2022 Dec 16: Fully charged

Move to renewables for energy, and electricity for transport, and we solve the climate problem. But renewables require storage, and uptake of EVs requires home charging, and there is a cost to both. But what if electric vehicles could solve the "green power grid" problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality, and reduce costs? It turns out this dream scenario is definitely possible but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem is solved.

Vaccines are an Experiment: With People As Guinea Pigs?

Commenced: October 10, 2021

Someone recently suggested to me that vaccines represent an experiment, and people are the guinea pigs. It is a very valid point that vaccinating an entire population is an experiment, and there are risks. The real questions becomes, what are those risks, does the “payback” justify the risks, and are steps to minimise risks adequate. […]

Obama and Xi Jinping announcement: a huge step for climate action? Or a backward step?

Commenced: November 14, 2014

Obama is currently a ‘lame duck’ president with a hostile senate, and approval rating that suggests a likely hood the next US president may well be a republican. In Australia when the less conservative party took a position to take steps to address climate change, it became a call to arms for conseratives opposed to […]

The G20 outcome, a plan to make the earth a worse place?

Commenced: November 21, 2014

The recent G20 wrapped up with a commitment to target economic growth level for the G20 of 2.1% by 2018. Global population grwoth is over 1.1% so this means the worlds richest countries will be getting richer by just over 1% avove population increase per annum by 2018. Is there any suggestion that this addional […]

The Housing Price Trap: A global bubble?

Commenced: April 29, 2016

The Australian prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) was interviewed on the ABC program ‘7:30’ answering questions on government policy regarding tax concessions for real estate investments. The Prime Minister spoke of the need to retain a specific tax concession because reducing the concession would reduce demand, and to reduce demand would result in lower prices. The […]

Brexit and Trump: Common Theme?

Commenced: June 24, 2016

I suggest there are two key points in common between the nomination of Donald Trump as the republican candidate, and the ‘Brexit’ vote in the United Kingdom: the failure of our economic system to deliver distribute of increased economic wealth a backlash against immigration Economics. The first point is that we have created a disconnect […]

Economic Cost Of Peak Population: Market Crash in Japan, China, The World.

Commenced: November 24, 2021

The world has reached peak child, and is headed towards peak population. Many economic metrics collapse between peak child and peak population, resulting in bear stock markets and even collapses, all if the real economy and outside their investment portfolios, most people are relatively unaffected. Economic Ponzi Scheme Metrics. Peak Child and National Economies. Market […]

My Body My Choice: Polarization and Outrage, But Who Is Pulling The Strings?

Commenced: November 29, 2021

The whole “my body my choice” is perfect for polarisation, as you can be outraged because: People are being forced into medical choices for their own bodies. or People are making selfish choices that can cause harm to can harm others. Whatever you believe, “my body my choice” drives polarisation. I will look into each […]

Omicron Variant: For Better or For Worse?

Commenced: November 29, 2021

You would think a new variant of concern could not be a good thing, but it fact it is possible. The update (Dec 5th) is that while is is clear a variant could help, that variant may not be Omicron. Although this page will record data on omicron over time, given how long the virus […]

Omicron Alert, Or Already Time For Alarm?

Commenced: December 6, 2021

I first looked at Omicron just under one week ago. The data since that time has already been sufficient to rethink my origin viewpoint. Recap: Previously. What Has Changed? S. Africa Cases! The Norway Party. The Big Hope: Less Dangerous Than Delta? Revised Summary. Conclusions(2 weeks later): Scary, But Not Earth Shattering.

Omicron Doom, But Australia Parties & Experiments: December 2021 snapshot.

Commenced: December 16, 2021

It is mid December 2021. The Covid-19 responses are as divided as ever, but in new ways: In Australia, almost all remaining Covid-19 restrictions are being removed on the same day as record case numbers. In Europe, UK and many other locations, restrictions are increasing. Who has it wrong, and why do I have this […]

From Covid-Zero to Worlds Worst Outbreak? Tracking Omicron, and The Australian ‘Pandemic-Over’ Experiment.

Commenced: January 4, 2022

On December 16th, I wrote on how, despite the world facing a looming Omicron surge, Australia and one state in particular in Australia (NSW), opened up as others introduced restrictions. The result is case numbers effectively an experiment, moving to “The Pandemic Is Over” and we can “live with the virus” position, and no longer […]

Peak Population: Well, until the next population explosion.

Commenced: October 12, 2021 Updated: February 12th, 2022

2022 February 12: Minor update

For the environment, our peak population will be a nightmare. This page explores alternatives for the future of population, and the possibility that the current peak population will be the last time there are ever this many humans on Earth.

Overpopulation solutions? See it as a ratio, not a number.

Commenced: December 28, 2020

As established in the previous exploration: Overpopulation, Starvation is the last symptom, overpopulation is exceeding 'carrying capacity'. Reducing the number of people is counterproductive if the action to reduce population, reduces carrying capacity. If society was to collapse, then even with 1/10 the people, we could still be overpopulated relative what we could then support.

Covid-19 & Vaccination Deaths: Statistically, Coincidences will distort reported deaths.

Commenced: January 23, 2022

I read recently about reasonable people protesting over post vaccination deaths in South Korea, echoing stories from around the globe about the underreporting of deaths following vaccination. Can most of these deaths be just coincidences? This question has me seeking the real story on what is happening, not just with deaths following vaccination, but also with deaths from the virus. Almost one year after my initial exploration of vaccine efficacy and safety, now there is data, not just projections, so it is time for a review, and this question needs answering for any such a review.

Vaccine Safety & Efficacy: As claimed?

Commenced: February 14, 2021

Are Covid-19 vaccines safe, or is there a risk of long-term side effects, or even changes to our DNA? Which vaccine is the most effective, and are the statistics from trials real? Someone asked me if am I worried about long term side effects from vaccines, prompting me explore what I could discover.

Covid-19 Aug 2021: Almost over, or still a serious threat?

Commenced: August 17, 2021

This is a follow up to “mid 2021, can we live with Covid-19”, as significant further information has become available. Currently updated as at August 22nd. Will Vaccines end the Covid-19 problem, or is it an ongoing threat? Risks vs Optimism: A range of futures is possible. Looking on the bright side. The Worst That […]

Coronavirus: Facts, Myths and Surprises (March 20th 2020)

Commenced: March 20, 2020

(go here for link to latest update) This is a collection of facts on the ‘novel’ coronavirus, together with some discussion on myths and surprises such as: how quickly it could all end we do not know the mortality rate how the world will probably forever changed the debunking and fact exploring on topic of […]

Covid-19 Cases Numbers: Not what we are told

Commenced: March 28, 2020

Media reports, and government data, repeatedly presents ‘numbers of Covid-19 cases‘. However, the data presented is not the number true count of all cases numbers, but some fraction of cases that have been confirmed by testing. It is typically not even governments best guess of case numbers – it is the smaller number: ‘confirmed cases‘. […]

Ignore Covid-19 Fake News: Conscience Is The Main Reason To Avoid Infection.

Commenced: August 13, 2020

The media paints a very misleading picture as to the main threat presented by Covid-19. The risk for society overall that forces governments to adopt lockdowns is the risk of overloading hospitals. For most individuals, the greatest threat is not to their own health, but the fear that they getting infected, it could trigger a chain of infections and if a parent or grandparent of a friend dies in the outbreak, then that could have resulted from their infection.

Djokovic: Rescued from PR Disaster By Australian Leader “Scotty from Marketing” Morrison!

Commenced: January 10, 2022

Overview. There are No Heroes: Morrison – Djokovic. The Timeline. Overview. Novak Djokovic had committed a nightmare public relations mistake, appearing to gloat at having managed an exemption from the vaccination requirements for the Australian Open tennis tournament. Not necessarily a crowd favourite to begin with, Djokovic’s public announcement of the exemption that he had […]

Covid-19 is NOT ‘binary’: Severity is as Variable as with a Car Crash.

Commenced: August 7, 2020

The severity of Covid-19, is as variable as the severity of a car crash, because just as with car crashes, infections range from so mild they are inconsequential, to severe.

Industrial/Growth Age vs Information/Eco Age

Commenced: May 3, 2016

Industrial/Growth Age Characteristics (discussed in detail later in the post) automation replaces manual labour time to travel continually decreases automation and culture spreads around the globe population growth is unprecedented economic markets expand rapidly the Christian religion is the dominant religion of the revolution Have I missed any? Most likely yes. Information/Eco Age Characteristics (again, […]

The population ‘catch 22’

Commenced: February 23, 2015

Abstract: There is a population ‘catch 22’ in that some countries with underlying population reduction continue to grow their population through immigration because these same countries are most attractive to potential immigrants. This hides the underlying population reduction, and produces an illusion that populations always grow. If you read this, chances are you live in […]

Australia in the Pandemic: Eye of the storm?

Commenced: March 24, 2021

This is a snapshot of the pandemic as of March 2021, looking at what life is like in Sydney Australia, and looking out at the world. The most recent case of a person infected in NSW , the state with Sydney as its capital, outside of quarantine was on March 17th and was a person […]

Population: Brace, the slow down has started!

Commenced: February 26, 2015

Surprising, global population growth is set to slow, because of changes to birth rates that have already occurred. Clearly families are not the size they were even 50 years ago. So why have we not already seen a change in growth? Is growth really going to slow down? The answer is that we have not […]

Will An Actual Vaccination Conspiracy In Australia Backfire Internationally?

Commenced: September 27, 2021

Secret Covid-19 Future: The Truth From a politician? It seems in Australia we have a genuine conspiracy to deceive the public. This is a conspiracy in two steps, with many conspirators only committed to the more benign step one, but likely being drawn into the more worrying step2. The Two Step Conspiracy: The People Don’t […]

Vaccines: yes, some stories are too good to be true.

Commenced: March 17, 2021

I have been following Covid-19 since January 2020 I felt the world too complacent, through to today March 17 2021, when I now fear there may be too much faith in vaccines. Israel has been at the forefront of vaccination, and should provide an early indicator of what to expect. So today I thought I […]

Mid 2021: Eliminate it? Or ‘Live With’ Covid-19 and what follows?

Commenced: July 16, 2021

So far around 75% of countries who have lived with Covid19, most often not by choice, and around 25% of countries have lived in the shadow of Covid-19, but through elimination, mostly without Covid-19. Vaccinations may allow living with Covid-19 to be more palatable, but they also provide an opportunity for more countries to eliminate […]

ScoMo Ingenious EV Plan: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, leading climate action blocker, stretching the truth again?

Commenced: November 19, 2021 Updated: November 19th, 2021

*2022 March 8: Minor typos and fixes.

After a long history resisting action on climate change, the Australian government finally 'committed' to net zero by 2050, and then did an about face from their previous 'anti-EV' stance and announced support for electric vehicles. Or did they?

Methane: Can A ‘Green’ Agenda Derail Climate Action?

Commenced: November 1, 2021 Updated: November 1st, 2021

*2022 Oct 10: fixed missing graphic.

If you were 'big oil', and you were trying to delay action on climate change impacting the fossil fuel industry, what would be your strategy? Would you point the finger elsewhere to create maximum division? This is a questioning look as to whether there is misdirection to create a distraction on for climate change, and just maybe, it is working.

The Curve: The basics of a Pandemic

Commenced: March 29, 2020

Covid-19 has made many phrases like ‘flattening the curve’ become part of News broadcasts, political announcements, and even everyday conversations. But, what is the curve? Why is there a curve to flatten? This post explores, the ‘curve’ and finds how herd immunity is the sole factor that produces the ‘bell curve’ resembling shape. Creating Your […]

Hydrogen Future or Fool’s Gold & Scams: “Where does the hydrogen come from?”

Commenced: October 24, 2021 Updated: October 24th, 2021

*2023 May 17 th: Updated synopsis and revised.

The race to stop CO2, has led to many 'scam' projects involving hydrogen, but it is not always clear who is being scammed: the public, or the proponents of hydrogen projects. What is the attraction behind the obsession with hydrogen? This is a look at the motives, the myths and the facts around hydrogen projects. Spoiler: There are some valid roles for hydrogen, but hydrogen has no remaining role as an energy source, and even any potential role as an energy carrier is highly questionable.

Vaccinations and Spread: The Dangerous Myth That Vaccinated People Don’t Spread Covid-19

Commenced: July 30, 2021

October 2021 Update: Provax vs antivax. The Real Impact of Vaccines is a score, not binary. Spread With Delta Variant (6.5). The score on spread reduction: 2x? 3x? The score on death prevention: 10x reduction? Vaccine passports: Good and Bad! Original Content: July 2021 Confirmation of reality: Extensive spread even when vaccinated. We Know Elimination […]

A long journey to an understanding of population.

Commenced: August 29, 2021 Updated: September 30th, 2021

2021 September 30: Updated to reflect the Optimal Population theory.

Population is a complex subject. To arrive at my current level of understanding, it took many 'light bulb moments' over the years since starting research in 2013, with many realisations shattering some of my previous beliefs, and sometimes taking years to be ready to take the next step. Here is a recap of that journey. If you can move quickly from step to step, then you can absorb information faster than I can, but perhaps this information will inspire others on their own journey.

Coffee: How many cups a day is ok, or even beneficial?

Commenced: June 4, 2021

There is conventional wisdom: too many cups of coffee can be bad for you. There are also, a surprising number of of extremely rigorous reports confirming a certain number of cups of coffee per day may be a good thing. What is most often missing is the definition of ‘a cup’. How big is ‘a […]

If the earth is overpopulated, so what?

Commenced: November 21, 2014 Updated: August 22nd, 2021

*2022 Nov 17: Minor cleanup, added image.

Yes, although not everyone agrees, the Earth is overpopulated by normal definition of overpopulation: population beyond sustainable carrying capacity. For those who do feel the earth is overpopulated: "Don't panic, and reducing population is not a quick fix".

July 2021: Vaccines or Not, Its Not Over Yet.

Commenced: July 8, 2021

June/July 2021: Covid-19 may seem to be under control- but we are not there yet. The World Picture: Snapshots Of Instability. Australia: The Great Delta Experiment. Vaccination Chaos, Politics. India: First Impact Site of Delta, and a dramatic recovery? UK: Reopening, seriously? US: A mystery to the decline in cases? Israel: 80% immunity and still […]

How long can/should/will population growth continue?

Commenced: February 18, 2015

There are at least four conflicting perspectives to population growth. Continued population growth is an economic requirement, is the optimum path for economic prosperity, and therefore must continue indefinitely. Global population will peak at approximately 9 billion around 2050 (official UN projection according to wikipedia page at time of writing), or at most around 11 […]

the economic impact of population growth and immigration

Commenced: March 3, 2015

My suggestion in my future population posts is that population growth has a greater effect on economic indicators than on real wealth of citizens. Here is an attempt to look at the economic impact of population growth, and what factors are real and identify any cases where indicators are positive beyond any real economic benefits. […]

Covid-19 Endgames & Exiting Lockdowns

Commenced: April 7, 2020

At this time (7th April), there is much talk of ‘peaks’ and ‘flattened curves’. There are suggestions that ‘the worst may be over’. Talk about lockdowns being relaxed or even removed. An outbreak running from start to end is a journey. With Coivd-19 that journey may include trials worthy of a journey in a Lord […]

China Virus, or USA Virus?

Commenced: September 3, 2020

No, I am not saying we anyone should be calling Sars-Cov2 the US virus. What I am saying, is that there is a real risk unless there is some caution, some people could start pointing the finger at the US, for new outbreaks of Covid-19 as time progresses. Consider, the US is currently the largest […]

Wet Market? Weapon? Laboratory? Where and When DID Covid-19 start?

Commenced: June 2, 2020

The question of how the outbreak of Covid-19 started could end up changing the balance of world politics. It is that big. This page reviews the various origin stories, and I will update this page if more comes to light. No, it did not start in a wet market in December. When were the Earliest […]

‘Sustainable energy’: what is it? What are the actual sources of energy?

Commenced: December 27, 2014

Sources Of Energy, and sustainability. 1: Solar energy. 2: gravitational/kinetic energy. 3. Nuclear energy 4: Thermal energy from the earth. Energy Usage Heat, Light, Electronics, Kinetic Power Storage Chemical potential, electrical potential, gravitational potential Renewable & Sustainable Renewable Sustainable Examples Original sources of energy, and their sustainability. There are few actual original sources of power. […]

Covid-19 in 2021: Threat of Dangerous Assumptions.

Commenced: January 2, 2021

2020 is regarded by many as ‘anus horribilis’. Enter 2021 and the hope for better, however dangerous assumptions, including that with a vaccines and a new year all will be fine, create a very real threat that 2021 may be no better than 2020. We come into 2021 armed with vaccines, but with Covid-19 case […]

Covid-19 Vaccine Myths

Commenced: December 6, 2020

There are many many myths about vaccines. Ranging from they are all part of some conspiracy, through to they are a miracle solution to Covid-19. Myths that place too much faith in vaccines can cause ‘Covid-19 complacency’, which could make things even worse in 2021 than even 2020. This post focuses on myths that place […]

Environmental Damage: The Overpopulation Indicator

Commenced: March 10, 2021 Updated: March 10th, 2021

2021 March 10 : Commenced.

Overpopulation is when there when population cannot exist sustainably without damage to the environment. Warnings of overpopulation often focus on the eventual starvation that could occur following environmental collapse, rather than the time bomb of declining living conditions for multiple species. Although such a substantial human population existing unsustainably wreaks havoc on the planet, borrowing from the future though unsustainable agriculture can delay any starvation for decades. However, as those who profit from overpopulation are sufficiently rich that they can improve their living conditions even as average resources per person declines, the wealthy will keep advocating "population growth is the path to prosperity". But can we risk becoming an Easter Island story by prioritising population growth to please the billionaires over a return to sustainability?

Vaccines: Another Covid-19 Mistake, plus > 5,000 deaths

Commenced: January 20, 2021

It is already January 20 here, but in the US, it is still very early in the morning, and the inauguration of President Biden awaits. So does the release of Covid-19 statistics for the day, and although numbers may be delayed until tomorrow, the US will likely record a tragic daily record of over 5,000 […]

Do we NEED another Meteor?

Commenced: September 21, 2019

I read how recently NASA revealed that a large asteroid came close to colliding with Earth, and had gone undetected until it was almost upon us. An article about the ‘volcanic winter’ that could follow such an event had me wondering: “Does the Earth need meteor strikes to avoid greenhouse gas runaway destroying life on […]

Sport and the Precarious Australian Open

Commenced: December 20, 2020

Current Australia is one of places in the world where you are least likely to become infected with Covid-19. Keeping it that way, is extremely difficult when a significant percentage of international arrivals can bring the virus into a country only enduring cursory changes to lifestyle in the face of the pandemic. The fragile freedom […]

‘99 Percent’ of Virus Cases Are ‘Totally Harmless’?

Commenced: July 7, 2020

Aside from the fact that society does not normally accept harming 1% of the population as an ‘acceptable risk’ (e.g. we ban toys that present a choking hazard even though 99% of children would not choke on them), which is the main reason people object to the statement, what is the actual basis for the […]

Covid-19 has a unique ability to bypass Vaccines?

Commenced: August 10, 2020

This post started out examining the research suggesting approximately 50% of the population were already naturally immune to Covid-19 from the outset. I review this research in this post, as well as what I think is the even more significant question: how could Covid-19 spread as it has, if 50% of people were already immune? […]

Coivd-19 Lessons from New Zealand

Commenced: August 18, 2020

“The places they were using to hold up, they are having a big surge. I don’t want that. I don’t want that. They were holding up names of countries, and now they are saying ‘whoops’,” Trump said. “Even New Zealand, you see what is going on in New Zealand. They beat it, they beat it. […]

From Masks, Parties and Isolation to Vaccines: Compliance, Coercion, Enforcement, Screw Ups + Sabotage

Commenced: August 26, 2020

In a world of conspiracy theories, complacency and ‘Coronavirus fatigue’, will people simply follow guidelines because you ask them, or do you need to coerce or even enforce compliance? Various authorities have also been sending signals, or even creating rules, that discourage compliance. Sometimes this is deliberate sabotage from outside, but more often the sabotage […]

Vaccines, Reality, and Russia

Commenced: August 18, 2020

Russia has announced it now leads the world by being first with a tested, safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. Jokes (and there have been a few) aside, how real is this? Could this vaccine, or any other, be ready, tested, safe and effective anytime soon. Russia, The Jokes, The Reality Is a phase 3 […]