I recently explored how in 2021, the numbers for EVs don’t really add up yet. One of the key discoveries, was that many sensible people
Depending on who you ask, EV sales could be either booming or grinding to a halt. Even AI answered: "The web results are contradictory and show different perspectives", and Ford on same day the same company reported record EV sales and a plan to cut back on EV plans due to lack of buyer interest.
So, what is really happening? Can biases be sidestepped to uncover a real answer? As is often the case, reality is a mix of both answers. Globally, EV sales are still growing, but growing slower, and in some places, sales are stalling.
Understanding Wright's Law, is key to knowing what technology, at what price, is coming next, and how prices of current technologies will change. It also has significant implication on completeness of USA vs China vs the rest how AI can revolutionise the cost of introducing new products.
While there are still valid reasons for most to hesitate before buying an EV in 2023, it's definitely late to risk buying a new ICE vehicle and may be a better time to instead plan a combustion engine exit.
Considering the trend from where EVs were 5 years ago to today, and then projecting EV sales growth over the next 5 years, and it seems almost certain almost all new ICEVs of today face an obsolescence risk.
While this does not mean everyone should rush out and buy an EV, it is an opportunity to prepare for an aspect of the future that may catch some unawares.
