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All: Timeline – EV Milestones

EVs stalling in 2024: End of the road, Speedbump, or buyers caught between Trump, Musk and China?

April 30, 2024 September 9, 2024

Depending on who you ask, EV sales could be either booming or grinding to a halt. Even AI answered: “The web results are contradictory and show different perspectives”, and Ford on same day the same company reported record EV sales and a plan to cut back on EV plans due to lack of buyer interest.

So, what is really happening? Can biases be sidestepped to uncover a real answer? As is often the case, reality is a mix of both answers. Globally, EV sales are still growing, but growing slower, and in some places, sales are stalling.

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2023 may not the year to buy an EV, but it’s definitely very late to risk buying a new ICEV!

August 31, 2023 August 1, 2023

While there are still valid reasons for most to hesitate before buying an EV in 2023, it’s definitely late to risk buying a new ICE vehicle and may be a better time to instead plan a combustion engine exit.

Considering the trend from where EVs were 5 years ago to today, and then projecting EV sales growth over the next 5 years, and it seems almost certain almost all new ICEVs of today face an obsolescence risk.

While this does not mean everyone should rush out and buy an EV, it is an opportunity to prepare for an aspect of the future that may catch some unawares.

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EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?

January 13, 2023 January 13, 2023

The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain ‘cool’, or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right.

Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the ‘legacy’ automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla.

Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is ‘cool’, shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.

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The 3rd EV wave: Tesla and the Chinese are coming, and in a hurry!

September 7, 2022 September 7, 2022

EVs can be divided into 3 waves:

  1. EVs that people can use despite limitations including the Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, i-MiEV, and Zoe.

  2. Then EVs are truly competitive in premium and enthusiast markets: Tesla Model 3, then Model Y.

  3. Mainstream EVs at the Tesla Model A/2 price point, but so far from China, not Tesla.

While China has been another world for EVs, with price competitive EVs from US$5,000, only now in 2022 is the rest of the world getting its first 3rd wave EVs, and so far, they all come from China.

Teslas were sold globally, but every other EV, was either an EV not sold in China, or a Chinese only EV. Two separate worlds of EVs, that have begun a hurried unification and bring 3rd wave EVs and automotive industry disruption to the entire world.

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Electric Cars: 2021, EVs Just Don’t add up (yet).

April 19, 2021 April 19, 2021

Right now, without subsidies, buying an electric car does not objectively add up. Currently there is a price premium, and as a result EVs only appeal to those happy to pay a premium to indulge a passion.
Some buyers are prepared to pay a premium for the environment, “the future” or the acceleration, but right now, buying is driven by passion and/or subsidies.

Read More »

Timeline – EV Milestones

EVs stalling in 2024: End of the road, Speedbump, or buyers caught between Trump, Musk and China?

EVs stalling in 2024: End of the road, Speedbump, or buyers caught between Trump, Musk and China?

Depending on who you ask, EV sales could be either booming or grinding to a halt. Even AI answered: "The web results are contradictory and show different perspectives", and Ford on same day the same company reported record EV sales and a plan to cut back on EV plans due to lack of buyer interest.

So, what is really happening? Can biases be sidestepped to uncover a real answer? As is often the case, reality is a mix of both answers. Globally, EV sales are still growing, but growing slower, and in some places, sales are stalling.

2023 may not the year to buy an EV, but it’s definitely very late to risk buying a new ICEV!

2023 may not the year to buy an EV, but it’s definitely very late to risk buying a new ICEV!

While there are still valid reasons for most to hesitate before buying an EV in 2023, it's definitely late to risk buying a new ICE vehicle and may be a better time to instead plan a combustion engine exit.

Considering the trend from where EVs were 5 years ago to today, and then projecting EV sales growth over the next 5 years, and it seems almost certain almost all new ICEVs of today face an obsolescence risk.

While this does not mean everyone should rush out and buy an EV, it is an opportunity to prepare for an aspect of the future that may catch some unawares.

Parent / Sub topics
Car Trucks EVs & Personal Mobility
2025: The future of cars, robotaxis & EVs. Will EVs die out, or eventually take over?

2025: The future of cars, robotaxis & EVs. Will EVs die out, or eventually take over?

This page (and the video) look at key questions on the future of cars & EVs: Will robotaxis mean really no one will want to own a car anymore? Even if people do still want cars, will EVs just die out or eventually take over? What about hydrogen, e-fuels, or the countries like the USA dropping any climate agenda? EV have improved a lot, but need to do more before they are fully suitable for _most_ people. If EVs & infrastructure are just not yet ready for most people, what's the next step?
Car Trucks EVs & Personal Mobility
Cars, Trucks & EVs: Can the EV save the car?

Cars, Trucks & EVs: Can the EV save the car?

This is the lead webpaper for all content related to personal vehicles, cars and trucks and their future. While most content is on the EVs and hybrids that I see as the future of transition of personal vehicles, the overall focus is on the future of car ownership. Many, even including Elon Musk, claim that in the future, people won't need to own a car. I suggest that sentiment misses that cars don't get gets us from A to B, but instead are places we spend the part of our lives while getting from A to B, and sometimes are even our home base when simply at B instead of A. In fact, a future where only the wealthy can own their own vehicles is heading towards the direction of reducing personal living space and "caged humans" where it could also be suggested "people won't need their own home". While site embraces moving to EVs, but no the agenda that EVs most be only ever smaller city cars, or better still just electric bicycles. EVs should allow the vehicles we want to own to be sustainable, that is provided we don't also succumb to living in cities that seek ever denser population densities.
Webpapers

Mr Bean cans EVs: what he gets right.

Electric Cars 2025: ‘adding up’ will create a revolution. Who wins, who loses? China? Japan?

EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?

EVs 2023: Is Tesla losing its cool as BYD ascends?

The 3rd EV wave: Tesla and the Chinese are coming, and in a hurry!

The 3rd EV wave: Tesla and the Chinese are coming, and in a hurry!

Electric Cars: 2021, EVs Just Don’t add up (yet).

Electric Cars: 2021, EVs Just Don’t add up (yet).