Synopsis: Unauthorised US immigration is not the main problem.
I looked into this topic to discover the reality behind the US “illegal” immigration issue. I believe the US economy is failing to deliver for typical US citizens who are seeing an erosion of key parts of their quality of life, but what I found is that while immigration overall is a key factor, “illegal immigration” only contributes 22% towards the actual immigration problem, and the immigration problem is only one part in a greater problematic picture that neither party wants to address, as the following paragraphs will try to explain.
“Illegal immigration” is more accurately described as “unauthorised arrivals”, because the issue is the number of people entering a country without approval rather than technical issues of whether national or international laws declare those arrivals legal or not. Yes, legally, not all such are arrivals are necessarily illegal, but they are all still outside a nation’s control and the point is less about whether some are legally entitled to arrive under national or international law, but that people arrive without the authorisation which would indicate the nation or at least the government wants these arrivals.
Up until the 20th century, unauthorized arrivals were the main source of population growth for the USA. Since historically there were effectively open borders, it could be said the USA was built on people arriving on the basis there was an open invitation. Even just prior to the 20th century barriers were raised on immigration from China and everything changed during the 20th century as not only did open borders became unworkable, but it reached the point where any immigration that raises the population too much could even be considered against the interests of the current population. In fact, statistics suggest the US population also believes this:
While public support for immigration has increased significantly over the years, recent studies have found Americans less likely to believe that immigration is a good thing for the United States in comparison to previous years. A 2023 survey further found that American opinions were split on whether immigration makes the U.S. better off or worse off, with 31 percent of respondents indicating that immigration made the country better off while 36 percent said it made the country worse off.
Illegal immigration in the United States – Statistics & Facts | Statista
From Biden’s comments below, Biden sees the use of immigration to boost population numbers as essential economic policy, so Biden is not targeting reduction of population growth, but instead targeting to use immigration as a path to economic growth. This is not a new policy from the Biden administration, but a policy Biden had not changed from previous US policies on total immigration targets.
The criticism is not total immigration, but specifically on border control and unauthorised immigrant arrivals. Are unauthorised arrivals causing the US to exceed total immigration targets? Or are there problems from not getting the desired mix of immigrants?
If the unauthorised arrivals were causing the US population to grow faster than the government population target, then that would clearly be a problem, however, the US population growth is actually lower now under Biden than the average rate of population growth of the last decade, and lower than it was during the 2017 to 2020 presidency of Donald Trump.
Looking at US population growth by year, using figures that include unauthorised immigrants, and ignoring that there was both a peak under Trump 2020 making growth under Trump look high and a correction from that peak in 2021 under Biden, with both almost certainly both due to Covid-19, the population trend has still been a gradual easing of the rate of population growth. Plus, the level of population growth has been basically the same under both Democrats and Republican presidents, with no evidence of a population surge due to increases in illegal immigration under Joe Biden in 2021, 2022 or 2023.
So, population growth under Biden for his first 3 years was kept below the long-term average with a 3-year growth total of 3,370,045 or 1.1 million per year. Even ignoring 2021 as artificially low the average is still well below the recent average of 1.5 million per year.
On this basis, if there is a problem, as authorised arrivals are not creating a surge in total population, any problem must be due to the mix of immigration and specific problems related to the unauthorised arrivals.
Even the “fact checked total” number of unauthorised migrants admitted in the USA since Biden became president have increased, and are at 2.5 million as of February 2024, which at first seems to suggest it would now account for 2/3 of that quite low total population increase. However, this is where the figures can be very misleading, which allows people to exaggerate issues for political gain. Legal immigration over the same period provided at least 2.7 legal migrants, and both numbers combined exceed the growth in the US population. How is this so? It is because it turns out that people also die within the US and leave the US, so the number in the country is not determined by arrivals alone. The rate of population growth in the US is slowing not because the rate of immigration is falling, but because lower birth rates mean the rate at which the US population would fall without immigration is accelerating.
This makes it possible to use part of the data and make the any problems look more serious that they are in reality. For example, as there were only 10.2 million unauthorised arrivals when living in the US when Biden took office, and at least 5.3 unauthorised arrivals since that time, which sounds like the number has grown by 50%! Except, 2.8-million of those 5.3 million arrivals were sent back out of the US, which means 2.5 million of them are still in the US, which would still be a rise in the total in the US of 25% and arguably a real emergency, but in fact due to deaths and departures within the unauthorised migrant community, the number of unauthorised arrivals in the US has only risen by 1.1 million to 11.3 million. This is still rise of around 10%, and still worthy of concern, although nothing like alarmists would suggest.
Deaths and departures are often overlooked, but with the average US life expectancy of around 77 years, around over 5% of any group living in USA will die during the 4 years of a presidential term. As children born in the US to unauthorised arrivals are not also unauthorised arrivals, this means 5% of the number at the start of a presidential term can arrive during that presidential term without any increase as a result.
Then, perhaps more surprisingly, many unauthorised arrivals also leave the US. One group in particular, and historically the largest group of unauthorised arrivals, are those from Mexico and they have been leaving in record numbers.
The decrease in unauthorized immigrants from Mexico reflects several factors:
What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. | Pew Research Center
- A broader decline in migration from Mexico to the U.S.
- Mexican immigrants to the U.S. continuing to return to Mexico
- Expanded opportunities for lawful immigration from Mexico and other countries, especially for temporary agricultural workers.
The fact that the number of unauthorised arrivals living in the US not only goes up with new arrivals, but also can go down, and puts into perspective the changes seen under Biden.
The total number of unauthorised arrivals living in the US did actually fall under Trump, just as it did under Obama, and now, under Biden, it has increased by a quite significant 10%, looking at the graphs from the time before Biden, is like the start of a return to the bad old days of 1990 to 2007 under presidents Bush and Clinton, when the number was rose unsustainably for decades.
In perspective, the rate of increase of unauthorised arrivals in the USA is higher under Biden than under Obama and Trump, and back to a similar level to what it was under Bush or Clinton, only now it is building on a bigger base. A counter point is that population growth under Biden is no higher than under either Obama or Trump, mostly due to that well below 2.1 births per woman birthrate finally impacting underlying population numbers. In summary, a 10% growth in unauthorised arrivals, but “business as usual” growth in overall population.
If this growth in unauthorised immigration is the problem rather than the continuing “business as usual population growth”, then the problem must lie in nature of the unauthorised immigrants. A review of crime statistics reveals that unauthorised arrivals commit less crime per person than authorised residents, which means that while there may be a perception the rise in unauthorised arrivals raising the crime rate, it is baseless. Another possibility is that undocumented workers drive help keep wages of loss employment low, and while this may be true, the economic implications are complex in an economy claiming there is a lack of low-cost labour, with many positions that cannot be filled.
This leave the possibility that “business as usual population growth” is increasingly problematic for the average person in the USA. This I can believe, as the factors that drove the “population vs economy flip of the 20th century” still apply, which means further population growth have an increasing impact on lowering the real standard of living of most living in the USA. Unauthorised arrivals only contribute around 22% of that growth but bring it back the zero contribution under Obama and Trump can only help.
So, is the issue of 1 million more unauthorised migrants under Biden the real problem making more Americans want to vote for Trump, or is the scapegoat for the real issue, which is the cost of living and the cost of housing?
I believe it is the later, and the real issue is cost of living and housing. I will add more to justify this in an update, but I also believe that population growth adds to these issues, and while the stance Trump took in the 2016 election was totally targeting a scapegoat rather than the cause of population growth, the case against what is happening under Biden is much stronger. However, population growth is more about immigration designed to grow the total economy at the expensive the individual and is not the only problem. Unauthorised immigration is the minor component of something, which itself, is only one component of the problems for the US economy.
It is likely that there will be less unauthorised arrivals under Trump, if for no other reason than the being a clear signal that they are not welcome. There could even be a fall in total population levels as more people leave, which would lower the pressure on real estate prices and reduce inflation, which even if a potential fall in population is not the platform Trump is standing on, could provide the greatest economic benefit to the average US resident.
Total US Population levels.
“You know, one of the reasons why our economy is growing is because of you and many others. Why? Because we welcome immigrants. We look to – the reason – look, think about it – why is China stalling so badly economically? Why is Japan having trouble? Why is Russia? Why is India? Because they’re xenophobic. They don’t want immigrants,” Biden said, according to an official White House transcript released Thursday.
Biden calls US ally Japan ‘xenophobic’ along with India, Russia and China
Legal Immigration to the US.
Even without unauthorised arrivals, the US government targets population growth through immigration in a nation where, with births per woman at 1.6 to 1.7, and well below the 2.1 level needed for population stability, the population would over time now naturally fall back until people feel economic circumstances have improved and circumstances again favour an increase in family sizes.
There is a quota system as explained here, but it is complex and it is simpler to consider actual data, as presented in the chart from the migration policy institute.
Figures show a low total for 2021 of total of 740,002 as things were recovering from Covid-19, and 1,018,349 for 2022. At time of writing in May 2024 all sources reported no 2023 total was yet available, and while analysing the 2023 Q4 homeland security report and other sources drilling don’t yet provide an actual number, they do indicate the number will be higher than 2022, provide a total for the first 3 Biden presidency years of over 2.75 million legal migrants.
The falling population of US born citizens and permanent residents.
The birth rate in the US, like that of other developed countries, has been well below replacement level for decades, and when this follows a period of population growth it takes a long time for reduced birthrates to impact overall population, from 2023 the total population of US born citizens began to fall.
While the fall was only by around 1 million, this level would mean up to 1 million immigrants could arrive before increasing population, increasing scarcities and driving up property prices.
However, that fall of 1 million in one year is “just the tip of the iceberg”, as the fall in working-age people in the US since Joe Biden took office has been closer to 20 million, and averages over 5 million less US born working age people million. Setting aside the propaganda over “ageing population” this indicate that the native-born US population could begin to fall at 4 million per year within the next 5 years.
Total US Population growth by year.
This data is from the US Census Bureau, which raises the question as to who is in the count and who is out.
Are unauthorized immigrants included in the resident population counts?
Yes, all people (citizens and noncitizens) with a usual residence in the United States are included in the resident population for the census.
US Census Bureau: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Although it is a little early to be sure about population growth during 2023, the USA today reported that 2023 saw approximately 1.6 million in population growth, which is around the average of the levels of 2018 and 2019, and far lower than the rate of population growth over the 10 years prior to Biden taking office, as even when 2020 is omitted to avoid it inflating that prior ten year average, the prior 10 year average is still over number is still over 2 million at 2,155,842 per year.
Unauthorised Immigration.
While these are also often called “illegal immigrants”, the broader term “unauthorised” captures everyone arriving without permission and ensures that any who might turn out to be, technically, legally eligible to migrate to the US, are also included in the numbers.
Unauthorised Immigration under Biden.
Fact checks confirm far more people are trying to enter the US without authorisation under Biden, and that there has been a surge in the number unauthorised arrivals. Note that the data below shows that prior to Biden, the total population of unauthorized immigrants living in the US was calculated to be 10.5 million.
Encounters on the southern border of those trying to enter the U.S. without authorization have gone up significantly under President Joe Biden. Government statistics show that in the initial processing of millions of encounters, 2.5 million people have been released into the U.S. and 2.8 million have been removed or expelled.
Some Republicans, however, have misleadingly suggested the number released into the country since Biden took office is much higher.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, claimed last month that 8 million “have come in illegally” and “we have to send them back.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made the same claim in a GOP debate in January.
Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas said on “Fox News Sunday” on Feb. 11 that Biden had “allowed an invasion to occur at our border, almost 10 million migrants have crossed into our country.”
The same day on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said that, conservatively, “3.3 million people have been released into the country who arrived here illegally.” But he also claimed that Biden had a policy of releasing “virtually 85, 90% of any migrant that crossed the border,” a percentage that would translate to well more than 3.3 million.
Factcheck.org: Breaking Down the Immigration Figures – FactCheck.org
Interestingly, after those 2.5 million new unauthorised arrivals, the total population of unauthorised arrivals in the US only went up by just under 1 million. From around 11 million people you would expect less than 500,000 deaths over 3 years, so if this is correct, it would seem as many authorised immigrants left the USA as died in the USA.
The population of unauthorized immigrants in the United States has been estimated to be around 11.39 million people, a number which has seemingly stabilized after a period of rapid growth. However, studies show that the amount of alien encounters by the United States Border Patrol has significantly increased in the last few years, with 2,214,652 registered alien apprehensions and expulsions recorded in 2022. In addition, there were 568 immigrant deaths recorded near the southwest border in the U.S., the greatest number reported by the United States Border Patrol since 1998, suggesting that illegal immigration may be on the rise again. Currently, Mexico is the leading country of origin for most unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., with California being home to the highest number of illegal immigrants in the country. The most illegal immigrants returned in the U.S. are from the Philippines, followed by Mexico, India, China, and Canada.
Illegal immigration in the United States – Statistics & Facts | Statista
Illegal immigration and the Biden administration
Under the Biden administration, the President has worked to reverse some of the stringent immigration policies that former president Donald Trump passed. These policies included stopping the Mexican border wall construction, protecting DACA recipients, and ending the travel ban on several Muslim majority countries. One of his proposed legislations includes the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021, which would provide a path to citizenship to as many 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country. This would include DACA recipients, agricultural workers, Temporary Protected Status beneficiaries, and any undocumented individual who has been physically present in the U.S. on or before January 1, 2021, as long as they pay their taxes and can pass criminal and national security background checks. While a majority of Americans support this plan, most of the support comes from Democratic voters.
Public opinion on immigration
While public support for immigration has increased significantly over the years, recent studies have found Americans less likely to believe that immigration is a good thing for the United States in comparison to previous years. A 2023 survey further found that American opinions were split on whether immigration makes the U.S. better off or worse off, with 31 percent of respondents indicating that immigration made the country better off while 36 percent said it made the country worse off.
However, in a 2020 poll on illegal immigrants being allowed to stay in the U.S. if they fulfill certain criteria, 75 percent of American respondents believed that illegal immigrants should have a way to them to stay legally if certain requirements are met. Around 24 percent of respondents thought that illegal immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally.
Illegal immigration in the United States – Statistics & Facts | Statista
Recent history of unauthorised arrivals prior to Biden.
The history of arrivals prior to Biden seems to be always tracked by looking at the total population in the US as opposed to a record of those entering each year, most likely because the most important data is how many arrive without declaring their arrival, which can only be calculated by looking at how many have arrived. The charts reveal a surprise, as you would think the numbers always increase, but in reality, there is a combination of some unauthorised immigrants leaving, which quire surprisingly leave the number for more stable than would be imagined.
The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States reached 11.3 million in 2022, according to new Pew Research Center estimates. That was a modest increase over 2019 but nearly identical to 2017.
The number of unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2022 remained below its peak of 12.2 million in 2007. It was about the same size as in 2004 and lower than every year from 2005 to 2010. The number increased by more under George W. Bush than under Joe Biden.
What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. | Pew Research Center
Deaths and Departures: A fall of typically 10% per presidential term.
Deaths and departures are often overlooked, but together they typically reduce the number of unauthorised arrivals living in the USA by around 10% from what it would be otherwise over the 4-year span of a presidential term. This if there were 10 million unauthorised arrivals, typically up to 1 million new authorised arrivals could be added without increasing the total.
Some die, and as children born in the US to unauthorised arrivals are not also unauthorised arrivals, without new arrivals unauthorised arrivals would just die out. With the average US life expectancy of around 77 years, around over 5% of any group living in USA will die during the 4 years of a presidential term.
Why do unauthorised arrivals leave?
Then there are also those in typically equal number who leave. It turns out that during Biden’s term the number of Mexican nationals leaving has been far higher than normal, resulting in a smaller rise in the total population of unauthorised arrivals living in the US than would be expected given the number of new arrivals.
So, why leave? Some go home because either the problem they were escaping has ended, or a change of circumstances mean they are needed back home.
In addition to the statistically 5% who will die during any presidential term, there will also be some percentage who leave, and others who gain legal migrant status.
The decrease in unauthorized immigrants from Mexico reflects several factors:
What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. | Pew Research Center
- A broader decline in migration from Mexico to the U.S.
- Mexican immigrants to the U.S. continuing to return to Mexico
- Expanded opportunities for lawful immigration from Mexico and other countries, especially for temporary agricultural workers.
Another possibly would be that it sounds like relatives at home are living a happier life. Happiness levels in the US have been falling relative to other countries, partly because in 2024 the USA has both a housing crisis, and a “cost of living crisis”. Relative to other countries, USA happiness levels have falling to world #23, only two places above Mexico at #25. Without access to jobs requiring legal resident status and with the threat of deportation, unauthorised arrivals are probably less happy than average. Add that Mexicans are likely to have family connections in Mexico, and it can make sense that a percentage will have a better life if they go home to where they take any job and feel less disadvantaged relative to society.
Some of these same factors causing unauthorised arrivals from other countries to leave the US probably explain why the number of unauthorised arrivals living in the US is lower than would be expected on the basis of the number of annual arrivals.
History of authorised arrivals: Ok until the 20th century.
The first restrictions of entry to the US specifically targeted limiting Chinese arrivals, and they only began in 1904. While by the first world war things had changed, up until the 20th century, the open borders meant any immigration was generally welcomed.
Mounted watchmen of the U.S. Immigration Service patrolled the border in an effort to prevent illegal crossings as early as 1904, but their efforts were irregular and undertaken only when resources permitted.
Border Patrol History | U.S. Customs and Border Protection (cbp.gov)
During the 18th and most of the 19th centuries, the United States had limited regulation of immigration and naturalization at a national level. Under a mostly prevailing “open border” policy, immigration was generally welcomed, although citizenship was limited to “white persons” as of 1790, and naturalization subject to five year residency requirement as of 1802. Passports and visas were not required for entry to America, rules and procedures for arriving immigrants were determined by local ports of entry or state laws, and processes for naturalization were determined by local county courts.
History of laws concerning immigration and naturalization in the United States – Wikipedia
Crime.
While the narrative used to capitalise on anger over unauthorised arrivals is that other countries “send” the citizens they don’t want to the US, there is no evidence this is true. The main reason people throughout all of history have migrated is to seek a better life for themselves or for their children. In fact, the entire nation of the USA up until the 20th century was built on people travelling long distances to seek a new home that could provide a better life for them and their children. Everything has a limit, and I believe migration needs to now find balance, but the people migrating are not “evil”, and this is born out by crime statistics:
Much of the available data focuses on incarceration rates because that’s where immigration status is recorded.
Some of the most extensive research comes from Stanford University. Economist Ran Abramitzky found that since the 1960s, immigrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born people.
There is also state level research, that shows similar results: researchers at the CATO Institute, a libertarian think tank, looked into Texas in 2019. They found that undocumented immigrants were 37.1% less likely to be convicted of a crime.
Beyond incarceration rates, research also shows that there is no correlation between undocumented people and a rise in crime. Recent investigations by The New York Times and The Marshall Project found that between 2007 and 2016, there was no link between undocumented immigrants and a rise in violent or property crime in those communities.
The reason for this gap in criminal behavior might have to do with stability and achievement. The Stanford study concludes that first-generation male immigrants traditionally do better than U.S-.born men who didn’t finish high school, which is the group most likely to be incarcerated in the U.S.
The study also suggests that there’s a real fear of getting in trouble and being deported within immigrant communities. Far from engaging in criminal activities, immigrants mostly don’t want to rock the boat.
Immigrants less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born : NPR
Social Security.
“Democrats are going to destroy Social Security and Medicare because all of these people by the millions are coming in – they’re going to be on Social Security and Medicare and other things, and you’re not able to afford it. They are destroying your Social Security and your Medicare,” Trump said.
Facts First: Trump is wrong. In fact, the opposite is true, particularly in the near term, multiple experts say. Many undocumented immigrants work, which means they pay much-needed payroll taxes, and this bolsters the Social Security and Medicare trust funds and extends their solvency. Immigrants who are working legally typically won’t collect benefits for many years. As for those who are undocumented, some are working under fake Social Security numbers, so they are paying payroll taxes but don’t qualify to collect benefits.
The Social Security Administration looked at the effects of unauthorized immigration on the Social Security trust funds. It found that in 2010, earnings by unauthorized workers contributed roughly $12 billion on net to the entitlement program’s cash flow. The agency has not updated the analysis since, but this year’s Social Security trustees report noted that increasing average annual total net immigration by 100,000 people improves the entitlement program’s solvency.
“We estimate that future years will experience a continuation of this positive impact on the trust funds,” said the report on unauthorized immigration.
From CNN’s Tami Luhby
Employment.
Donald Trump recently proclaimed that all jobs created under Joe Biden had gone to illegal immigrants.
Former President Donald Trump, who has promised to conduct mass deportations if he is elected to a second term in November, continued his angry rhetoric about illegal immigration at a campaign rally in Nevada in early June.
“Virtually 100% of the new jobs under Biden have also gone to illegal aliens,” Trump said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/17/politics/fact-check-donald-trump-jobs-biden-immigration/index.html
As CNN points out, the unemployment rate has fallen. But have all the new jobs gone to illegal aliens? No, but as the graph here shows, all the increase in employment has all gone to migrants. Not specifically to illegal migrants, but to migrants. Which makes it look like Trump may be onto something. Note that there has been no increase in the number of US born workers in employment.
However, unemployment rates for US born workers have fallen under Biden and are now lower than pre-covid levels under Trump! Plus, workplace participation rates have risen. The reason US born worker employment rates have risen without increasing the number employed, is that there are now fewer US born workers in the population.
It turns out, the reason the number native born people employed has not risen, is that the number of US born people has actually fallen by 1 million since Biden came to power, and the working age population, which excludes the very oldest demographic, has fallen by almost 20 million. The birthrate in the US has been under the 2.0 births per woman replacement level for decades now, which eventually results in a population correction. There is on average globally, a population correction happening, and the population native born US citizens will naturally fall over the next few decades.
There is a real problem, but it’s not just unauthorised arrivals.
The Real problem: Population growth in defiance of birthrates through immigration.
The real problem is total arrivals, whether authorised or not. A temporary, but very real problem of having a rising population at the very time the population of native-born US people is falling. Not the only cause of economic problems for US citizens, but the very real immigration related problem.
Neither political party wants voters to understand their real problem, and the Trump Republicans will most likely rise to power on the basis of appearing to deal with this problem while the democrats deny the problem exists at all.
The truth is that with both parties’ political campaigns primarily funded by extremely wealthy donors, the propaganda campaigns for both sides mask this real issue because addressing the problem would benefit all but those of extreme wealth.
The current phase should not be population growth.
I suggest that the real problem is that of itself, the US population should not be growing right now, and the equation for wealth and population flipped during the 20th century to where, now in the 21st century, population growth now erodes the average standard of living.
Despite US citizens having had birth rates to end growth for long enough that the population of US born citizens is now falling, both US political parties plan to use authorised immigration to boost population and thus consumer numbers for approximately 10 remaining years this is possible, pushing the problem for big business of an end to growth in consumer numbers into the future.
The Solution: A temporary reduction in immigration numbers.
The data in the employment section above reveals that the total population of people born in the US fell by only one million during Biden’s time in office, while the working age population fell by 20 million. This suggests the population correction has fully hit the working age population of those below 65, but not yet the entire population. Given the gap between working age and full lifespan is around 12 years, we should see the full effect of the population correction within 12 years.
All we need to do is to reduce immigration intake for a maximum of 12 years, and more likely only around 6 years, after which time today’s rate of immigration would be sufficient to counter the fall in native population. We could stop population growth by a slow of immigration now, and gradually return immigration rates to the current level within 6-12 years and still avoid any further population growth.
Consequences of ignoring the real problem: Housing, infrastructure & inflation.
Not just the USA, but every country using immigration to reverse the underlying population correction trend is having a housing crisis. Across the nation, there is as housing shortage and rents are rising. Consumers are impacted not only by their own rental costs, but the pressure rising rents put on cafe’s, restaurants and offices. Every location has to raise prices to justify the use of the real estate.
While it may seem that after the record population growth the 20th century this is nothing new, but there are two key differences for real estate:
- With the population peak now approaching, new developments that may become obsolete once the peak passes can face finance difficulties.
- There is less space for new developments than ever before, and increased density housing comes at an increased cost.
All infrastructure to support the population faces the same barriers, not only does the real estate currently cost amounts that must collapse as growth slows, but the infrastructure is also only needed for a peak population that will soon being to ease which creates the need for an accelerated return on investment.
The prices of real estate and pressure on infrastructure both feed into non-incursionary inflation, creating a cost-of-living crisis.
Updates
- *2024 October 17 : Replace link to Pew Research chart with saved copy.
- 2024 July 20 : Updated “real problem” section.
- 2024 May 30 : 1st edition.
