Geopolitics Earthquake.
What’s happening, by chapter: The big 2 are Ukraine & Gaza, but Panama, Greenland & Canada, “new Truth” and the US seemingly having a so far benevolent dictator, all compound the situation. And this is leaving aside for separate videos immigration, and how trumps environment policies may accelerate global EV adoption.
Project Ukraine.
Trump appears to have 2 main “project ukraine” goals:
- 1: end the war.
- 2: Receive $500 billion of rare earth minerals to “repay” the cost of the US supporting Ukraine.
Trump repeated his interest in reaping a return on US assistance for Kyiv. “They have tremendously valuable land in terms of rare earth, in terms of oil and gas, in terms of other things. I want to have our money secured,” he said.
“I told them that I want the equivalent, like $500 billion of rare earth, and they’ve essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid. Otherwise we’re stupid. I said to them, we have to get something. We can’t continue to pay this money,” he added.
CNN: Ukraine ‘may be Russian someday,’ Trump says ahead of Vance-Zelensky meeting
That Trump wants an economic windfall is echoed in these words quoted by both CNN and the UK independent, as is that Zelensky already put the rare Earth minerals on the table as part of his peace plan.
Mr Zelensky has been trying to develop these resources, estimated to be worth more than £12 trillion, based on figures provided by Forbes Ukraine, for years.
In 2021, he offered outside investors tax breaks and investment rights to help mine these minerals. These efforts were suspended when the full-scale invasion started a year later.
Anticipating the notoriously transactional Mr Trump might take an interest in this, Mr Zelensky then placed the mining of these minerals into his victory plan, which was drawn up last year.
Independent UK Mapped: Where are Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources and why does Trump want them?
Donald Trump’s problem with Zelesky’s plan could be the exact thing that Zelesky thought was his strength: Overlaying the occupied areas on top of the map of where the minerals are, highlights this complication. Over half of those mineral resources are in the very areas occupied by Russia, so for Zelensky to have access, he will need help pushing Russia out, and it will take time, and come at a cost. has to regain control that his land.
For Trump to get the minerals from Zelensky and Ukraine, Russia must be forced to cede territory it now claims, and that requires a fight, and a substantial cost . But what if Trump can says to Russia “If I were to allow you to have that land, I would lose 1/2 a trillion in rare earth minerals, unless we can strike a deal. Remember everyone agrees over 50% of the 12 trillion is under land you occupy, so you stand to gain at least 6 trillion if we can strike a deal…. so “
If Trump does a deal, and backs Russia, both goals could be achieved. If the US and Russia agree to support that Russia owns its territorial claims, the fighting stop as none has the power to argue. There is the complication of blaming Ukraine in order to try to justify exonerating Putin as a war criminal, but Trump has already started blaming Ukraine and Zelensky for starting the war and declaring Zelensky a dictator. if the US can hold that position, then perhaps, at least for now, conflict settled. US gets richer and saves the expense of supporting Ukraine, Russia gets even richer, and sadly Ukraine loses, but hey… America first doesn’t fit with helping Ukraine when it comes at a cost to the US.
Gaza: Renovator’s delight.
Then there’s Gaza, and Trump’s preferred solution faces problem of getting Egypt and Jordan to accept Gazans. Both regimes are stuck, as they both have internal problems and without US support, their regimes likely collapse, but if they accept the refugees, that could also lead to collapse.
In the end, it could come down to you want to collapse while being supported by the US, or while being undermined by the US. It will take something significant to change Trumps plan when there is real estate at stake. Yews, there are some problems with international law, but international law has a real enforcement problem.
Those two alone realign global politics, and divide USA and Europe. Combine this with the near elimination of US foreign aid, and a tariff war, and almost every country on the planet has a very changed and less trusted relationship with the US. Voters did want trump to shake things up and this is a global geopolitical earthquake. But wait…there is more…
Egypt Government Stability
In 2025, Egypt’s government faces significant challenges that highlight its fragility and the ongoing repression under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule. Key issues include:
- Economic Pressures: The government’s economic policies, which prioritize large infrastructure projects often led by the military, continue to undermine people’s economic, social, and cultural rights. Skyrocketing prices of basic commodities, rising poverty, and reduced access to food and electricity are major concerns.
- Repression and Human Rights Violations: The government continues to systematically detain and punish peaceful critics and activists, effectively criminalizing peaceful dissent. Arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, and torture remain prevalent, with human rights defenders and journalists facing ongoing harassment and persecution.
- Urban Development and Forced Evictions: The urban development sector, a cornerstone of the government’s program, is undergoing rapid changes. Forced evictions of residents, often without reasonable replacement housing or just reparations, are a significant issue. The lack of clear legal frameworks for evictions allows for arbitrary interpretations and unfair practices.
- Legislative Changes: The government is expected to carry out extensive legislative amendments until July 2025, which require close monitoring from rights groups to ensure compliance with the constitution and the protection of rights and freedoms. Proposed amendments to the criminal procedures law threaten to impact the criminal justice system and citizens’ rights.
- Political Stagnation: The upcoming parliamentary elections at the end of 2025 are likely to result in a parliament lacking genuine representation due to the closed-list system. This further erodes the democratic process and political legitimacy.
- Military Involvement: The military’s role in the economy and governance continues to expand, with the government planning to sell stocks to civilian investors who act as fronts for the military or to companies partially or wholly owned by the military. This duality raises concerns about the balance of power and economic reforms.
- International Support: Despite domestic challenges, Egypt continues to receive significant financial support from international donors, including the United Arab Emirates, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. This support, totaling about US$57 billion, helps sustain the regime but does not address the underlying issues.
These factors collectively underscore the fragility of the Egyptian government in 2025, as it struggles to balance economic, political, and social challenges while maintaining a repressive grip on the population.
Jordan
Jordan faces several challenges as it enters 2025. One significant issue is the country’s heavy reliance on imported energy, with Jordan importing over 97% of its energy requirements according to government sources.1 To address this, the Jordan National Energy Strategy aims to increase the country’s renewable energy production share to 48.5% of national electricity production by 2030.1 However, achieving this goal may be constrained by financial limitations, particularly due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Another challenge is the issue of nepotism, known as “wasta,” which remains a serious problem in Jordan. Despite being illegal since 2006, members of parliament often use wasta to provide services and employment to their constituents, and no convictions for this practice have ever taken place.
Jordan also has concerns about the regional dynamics, particularly the outcome of the Syrian regime’s fall. The country has hosted hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, which has been a significant burden on its resources.2 Additionally, the new regional order may pose challenges for Jordan, especially if the new Syrian leadership aligns itself with Turkey or Qatar, potentially leading to instability.
Furthermore, job creation, a key goal of Vision 2025, has not been successful. The vision aims to boost local energy production, improve public transport, and enhance educational opportunities, but achieving these goals remains uncertain due to ongoing economic and political challenges.
In summary, Jordan’s path forward in 2025 involves navigating complex domestic and regional issues, including energy security, political corruption, and refugee management, while striving to implement its long-term national vision and strategy.
see also:
Jordan’s future in 2025: Challenges and opportunities
Analysis: Jordan faces ‘geopolitical blackmail’ after Trump Gaza demand
Panama
Panama wouldn’t even have become a country without the US, and the US did take over from France and finish construction back in 1914. OK, the original canal would not support today’s shipping, so it is no longer the original canal the US built, but what about the cost of the US being on standby to defend Panama from being invaded? What about protection money at least? Right now, Panama does seem to be facing some threats from at least one foreign power, even if that sounds like a protection racket.
Canal Upgrades.
In the first decade after the transfer to Panamanian control, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) invested nearly US$1 billion in widening and modernizing the canal, with the aim of increasing capacity by 20 percent.
Then in 2016, completed a new, 3rd set of pairs of locks, that revolutionised international shipping and giving rise to a new class of ships with double the carrying capacity:
- NeoPanamax ships.
The project also:
- – Excavated new channels to the new locks
- – Widened and deepened existing channels
- – Raised the maximum operating water level of Gatun Lake
Greenland and Canada
As for Greenland and Canada, hard to see Trump’s path to even Greenland, doubt about Canada, but both will at least remain a negotiation threat. Recall where the US was in 1824. Borders continue to change, and there has been little expansion since the Pacific and Caribbean expansion ended in1945. Trump does intend to shake things up. Plus, with all this global warming, being able to move North might prove very attractive, and Trump is particularly keen on real estate.
New Truth.
The trump administration also has control over “new truth”, for example banning AAP from white house briefings because they publish the international version of the Truth, and in international reports use the international name, “Gulf of Mexico” in keeping with the International Hydrographic Organization and used globally, instead of what is deemed to be the new truth within the USA. Perhaps a trivial case , but the message is, you must report what the white house declares is “the truth”, be it names, crowd sizes, who won past elections, or wins a future election, and perhaps even what the constitution means, or you will be sanctioned.
Or, if Elon Musk has his way, endure a “long prison sentence”. It seems being a free speech “free speech absolutist” doesn’t stop him wanting to jail people who say things critical of him.
Elon Musk has no power to put anyone in jail, but his fantasy about a “long prison sentence” for “60 Minutes” reporters is dangerous nonetheless.
If you want to know why, just ask Elon Musk.
He has repeatedly (and correctly) posted that “free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy.” In fact, those were among his first words when he took control of Twitter, now X.
Musk has described himself as a “free speech absolutist.” He has decried speech restrictions in other countries. Yet his recent statements about the American media contradict his self-image.
In a few short weeks, Musk has become the most vicious media-basher of the Trump administration, sometimes going even further than President Trump has.
CNN What Elon Musk’s dangerous war with ‘60 Minutes’ is really all about
Benevolent dictator?
And perhaps therein lies the clue: rules matter only when you want them to matter, and so far, voters are happy …. this is despite Trump appearing to ignore the constitution, so far with presidential immunity. Cutting departments that were established and can in theory only be abolished by congress, is ok if it saves money, and ignoring the constitution on birthright citizenship is because the rule was really designed for another time. The risk is, as Trumps establishes that the executive power of the president can control all means of blocking the power of the president, allows for ignoring the separation of powers and acting as a dictator, and means there may be no way to guarantee the dictator feels the need to remains regarded as benevolent by the majority of the population.
When the UN was established, a fundamental problem was the assumption counties would not change. Some counties should placed in special positions such as permanent members of the security council with right of veto, without identifying what qualified those countries or condition s required to remain in such positions. Asd global politics change, as the league of nations became outdated, one day the US will suffer same fate
