BYD now targets Toyota’s “step to EVs” as DM-i + DMO EV hybrids go global in 2024 with BYD Shark & Sealion 6.

Synopsis: BYD targets market leadership before EVs with DM hybrids.

In the future, EVs will be the lowest cost product, followed by hybrids, with ICE vehicles the most expensive of all. BYD stopped selling non-hybrid cars in 2022, with their hybrid technology already in China at a lower price than conventional ICE vehicles. BYD are on that path to that future.

In the last 3 years, BYD went from selling around 40% to 100% as many pure EVs as Tesla, and catching Tesla in EV sales, and not just because Tesla has some issues.

Now BYD is selling around 40% as many hybrids as Toyota and is way ahead of Toyota in plug-in hybrids. If BYD, who even Toyota seem to say make the best PHEVs, can provide DM-i at ICE vehicle prices and less than Toyota ICE based hybrid prices, then just maybe in another 3 years they can catch Toyota in hybrid sales.

Not all hybrids are the same. BYD hybrids are like EVs with a combustion engine added for better range, in contrast with hybrids are gasoline vehicles with electric motors added to reduce fuel consumption. Not only is the result an “EV first” hybrid that drives like an EV until extended range is needed, but they are also now extremely cost competitive and mature technology which may even be adopted by Toyota:

Toyota will introduce two or three new plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models in China in the next two to three years, most likely based on BYD’s PHEV DM-i platform, local media reports.

The Japanese auto giant will also no longer use the THS (Toyota Hybrid System) platform, which powers HEV models, for newly launched cars in China. HEV stands for hybrid electric vehicle, and it is basically an ICE car that can’t be charged, can’t get a green license plate in China, and doesn’t receive the same subsidies and treatment as BEVs or PHEVs.

“Under the pressure of the Chinese EV price war, the cost is an important condition that Toyota must consider. The core factors why Toyota prefers to use BYD’s DM-i technology are its low cost and the fact that the technology is relatively mature,” sources say to Caijing.

Toyota plans using BYD’s plug-in hybrid DM-i platform to launch 3 PHEV models in 3 years in China

Part of understanding BYD is understanding that the company is conservative and takes things in steps. Just like the Swiss saying that if they had designed the Alps, they would not have made them so high, BYD is the “softly-softly” compliment to Tesla’s bold “change everything” approach. BYD is a more nuanced company, and just as anyone who persists in claiming that BYD began as standing for “Build Your Dreams” clearly has not done much research, overlooking that EV based hybrids are part of BYD is missing the picture.

Instead of launching BYD launching the F3e pure EV BYD showcased in 2006, BYD stepped back and instead first released the plug-in hybrid F3 dm in 2008, having decided the market and infrastructure was not yet ready for pure EVs. Now in 2024 BYD has a long history with plug-in hybrids, and a long history of using plug-in hybrids as a strategy for achieving market leadership without needing to wait for pure EVs to dominate sales.

BYD Market strategy

Yet their market goals are not conservative. There are several reasons to believe that now in 2024, BYD is targeting becoming the no1 automotive brand in every market where BYD introduces their plug-in DM-i hybrid PHEVs. Rather than wait to be no1 brand in an EV future than many do see happening within decades, BYD is targeting becoming no1 automotive brand in many markets even before EVs approach 50% market share, which likely means before 2030. It means BYD is targeting not just Tesla but also Toyota.

This suggests even BYD, the BYD brand vying with Tesla for global EV sales leadership, accepts that not all EVs, consumers and infrastructure yet enables the majority of vehicles to become full EVs.

consumers does not believe EVs are yet ready for the majority of consumers nor all types of vehicles. If BYD believed pure EVs BYD would soon dominate international markets, it would make little sense to make the necessary investment to introduce hybrids with their increased support costs and more sense to just focus on their pure EVs.

This EV + hybrid strategy seems to be focusing first on markets without their own car industry and targeting automobile sales market leadership in those markets, with less aggressive goals in Europe, Japan and the USA where the presence of local manufacturers raises the threat of tariffs.

When I started tracking BYD sales in 2022, BYD sold just under half as many EVs as Tesla, but just two years later, BYD has basically caught up, despite Tesla also growing over those years. In 2023, Toyota sold around 3.5 million hybrids, which means BYD sold just under half as many hybrids as Toyota, putting BYD in 2024 in a similar position relative to Toyota with hybrids as BYD was relative to Tesla with pure EVs.

There are some big differences though. When the Atto 3 was about to be launched in Australia, BYD was a far smaller company that had sold just under 600,000 cars in the previous 2021 year, while now in 2024, BYD are targeting 4.2 million sales, have 90,000 engineers and a far more developed product portfolio.

BYD stopped selling regular ICE vehicles in early 2022 as its plug-in hybrids had reached price parity, and with DM models is targeting the not just the hybrid market, but the market for everyone not buying a pure EV. These BYD hybrids are based on EVs and significantly different from those of Toyota which are based on gasoline vehicles, but they can still be driven just like a regular gasoline or diesel.

With the introduction of hybrids, BYD moves from being a competitor in the smaller pure EV market, to being a competitor in the entire market.

In China, BYD overtook Toyota in total vehicles sold during 2022, and the Sealion 6, also known as the Song Plus PHEV or Seal U PHEV, significantly outsells the Toyota RAV4 in China. There is no reference for the pickup/Ute segment in China as these vehicles have limitations in China and the “Shark” Ute/pickup is an all-new vehicle, but the specifications are impressive and provided the price is right it could become a market leader in many key markets.

While in many markets at least some of the products BYD released prior to 2024 have become market leaders in their segments, the 2024 products from BYD are targeting far bigger segments in the target markets. Using Australia as an example, the “confirmed” new BYD products for 2024 are direct rivals to the 3 bestselling vehicles as per the most recent data at time of writing (April 2024):

1. BYD Shark Ute/Pickup: The similar sized Ford Ranger was the 1st bestselling car in March 2024.
2. BYD Sealion 6 Family SUV: The Toyota RAV4 hybrid was the 2nd bestselling car in March 2024.
3. BYD Sealion 07: The similar sized Tesla Model Y was the 3rd bestselling car and bestselling EV.

BYD introducing their hybrids is BYD stepping up strategy from targeting only those ready to buy EVs to targeting all car buyers. This would have little impact unless BYD hybrid products are very competitive.

It turns out the BYD “DM-i” hybrids do represent a step beyond what is previously on offer on the world stage, have played a very significant role in leapfrogging the likes of Toyota in China, and can now provide far better economy than other hybrids, a true EV experience most of the time for those with access to charging, and if they can match the relative pricing offered in China, all at a lower cost than cost than conventional gas-powered ICE vehicles.

It comes at a time when Tesla sales are likely to hit a difficult patch and globally EV sales are stalling particularly in markets with tariffs to protect against sales from China, but DM vehicles could herald a major step up in the BYD export push, particularly in markets without their own car industry.

BYD Market Strategy.

BYD Strategy: If people aren’t ready for pure EVs, give them EV based hybrids.

Instead of launching BYD launching the F3e pure EV BYD showcased in 2006, BYD stepped back and instead first released the plug-in hybrid F3 dm in 2008, having decided the market and infrastructure was not yet ready for pure EVs. Now in 2024 BYD has a long history with plug-in hybrids, and a long history of using plug-in hybrids as a strategy for achieving market leadership without needing to wait for pure EVs to dominate sales.

As 2024 still less than 20% of vehicles worldwide are pure electric, which suggest over 80% of car buyers are not ready for EVs or have questions about infrastructure being yet ready to support everyone owning EVs. Plus, while it may be the last stand of the anti-EV campaign, there are several factors leading to stalling sales of EVs in the USA and Europe, which creates global negative press.

The BYD philosophy has been EV technology can be used to make both pure EVs and EV based hybrids, so for when batteries with sufficient range are too expensive, offer EV based plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are basically a variant of “Extended Range Electric Vehicles” (EREVs) that they now call “DM-i” for “Dual Motor Intelligent”.

In Q4 2023, BYD sold just under 50% PHEV vehicles at 396,242 units, with the remaining just over 50% at 526,409 being the pure EV vehicles, and PHEVs sales are projected to grow faster than EV sales in 2024.

In 2024, sales of BYD pure EVs are similar in number to Tesla sales, and for Q4 2023, BYD became the world’s biggest seller of pure EV vehicles, but in plug in vehicles in total, BYD is way ahead as the world’s biggest seller of plug-in hybrid vehicles.

When I started tracking BYD sales in 2022, BYD sold just under half as many EVs as Tesla, but just two years later, BYD has basically caught up, despite Tesla also growing in that time. In 2023, Toyota sold around 3.5 million hybrids, which means BYD sold just under half as many hybrids as Toyota, putting BYD in 2024 in a similar position relative to Toyota with hybrids as BYD was relative to Tesla with pure EVs.

Will BYD also catch Toyota in hybrids during the next 3 years?

Over the next three years, BYD plans update all products with new even more cost-effective platforms as part of an offensive to “liberate” car buyers from conventional ICE vehicles and ICE based hybrids in the EV based hybrids and EVs:

BYD’s core management team said at a recent internal meeting that the company will mobilize all of its strengths in technology and upstream and downstream industry chains to fight a “liberation battle” over the course of 3 years, 36kr said in a report today that cited a number of people familiar with the matter.

In the move, the company will update its DM (Dual Mode) hybrid system, as well as its all-electric e-Platform, according to the report.

BYD to launch next-gen PHEV and BEV platforms to make further offensive against petrol cars, report says

Why does BYD still bother starting new export markets for PHEV hybrids in 2024.

Taking the step to introduce vehicles with internal combustion engines into a new market as an interim step until EVs take over, is a big commitment when considering all the related components and servicing requirements. Being able to service internal combustion engines in addition to EVs almost doubles the services facilities and ongoing parts support required. Why bother if the world is moving to EVs anyway, and BYD has previously said that PHEVs will become a niche market by 2030? The answer seems to be, that at least in markets lacking tariffs to protect their own automotive industry, BYD wants to move faster than possible with pure EVs alone. The EV market is only around 20%, and with their DM hybrids, BYD figures they can go for the other 80%, as their hybrids compete with conventional ICE vehicles, as well as all other hybrids.

BYD may in many areas have a conservative approach, but their goals are anything but conservative. In Australia, their goal is to first become a top 5 automaker, before then becoming the No1 bestseller. I believe it is a mistake to see these as just lofty aspirations rather than a concrete plan, especially since BYD has already overtaken VW and Toyota in the world’s largest vehicle market, despite VW and Toyota previously for decades having had a stranglehold on the top spot.

Now, as part of that plan, BYD is bringing that same plug-in hybrid “EV-first” approach to the pickup/Ute market, which is an application requiring another step up in scale in terms of the size of batteries required, and the locations where charging infrastructure is required.

This means first bringing BYD DM-i hybrids first to markets where pickups/Utes are one of the most popular vehicle segments in order to compete on price and practicality in markets where consumers and infrastructure may not be fully ready for EVs.

In these same markets, BYD will also bring other DM-i EV hybrids starting with a medium SUV known as the “BYD Song Plus Champion Edition” in China, but under the name “Sealion 06” or “Seal U” in many export markets. For one of the world’s top 10 Automotive brands by volume and the largest of all car brands in China outselling VW and Toyota, BYD have a wide range of models with very confusing names. The “Sealion 6” can be considered as a Toyota RAV4 rival, that significantly outsells the RAV4 in China.

Each of these vehicles is entering a segment more significant than previous releases.

Anywhere BYD introduces hybrids, the company is looking to become the number #1 brand even before pure EVs takeover. That goal does sound ambitious, but BYD came from outside the top 10 to overtake Toyota and VW in the Chinese market where the stakes for every automotive brand in the world the stakes are highest. Yes, in China perhaps a surge in nationalism and other unique factors helped take a Chinese brand to the top, but on the other hand, the BYD of today is much more capable and profitable company with a very complete product portfolio not in place at the start of the rise to the top in China.

BYD In Australia.

In Australia BYD first introduced the “Atto 3”: a small/medium all electric SUV which is competitively priced against similarly equipped rival internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. With only one highly optioned variant, the Atto can compete on price not with base models ICE alternatives by only with other well optioned small/medium SUVs. Still, as the only electric vehicle included in a “recent “megatest” of the 18 best small SUVs managing 2nd place indicates it is an EV that compares favourably to traditional cars segment leaders.

In late 2023, BYD released the Dolphin EV hatchback and the Seal performance EV saloon. Not only does the Dolphin have competition from similar priced comparable EVs, but it also does not really have the pricing that enables it to compete directly and tempt traditional small hatch buyers. Even in the UK where the BYD Seal can curiously be more expensive than the Tesla Model 3, it wins some and it loses some comparison reviews against the Tesla Model 3 in the UK where the Tesla is the lower priced vehicle, which means in markets like Australia where it is the Seal that has a significant price advantage, the Seal may be compelling for those in the market for a performance EV sedan. However, stealing sales from the Tesla Model 3 is hardly breaking new ground for EVs and sedans are not a very “hot” segment.

Prior to the BYD global export push in 2022 there were already a smally number of exports of BYD PHEVs, but from 2022 it at first seemed the big export push would be pure EVs only, avoiding the problem of maintenance of combustion engine vehicles in new markets.

Electrified vehicle manufacturer BYD has announced a stunning ambition to double its sales every year in Australia out to at least 100,000 in 2026, driven by the roll-out of as many as five new models each year.

The plan is to eventually have a BYD model on sale in every new-vehicle sales segment Down Under.

The incredible display of high-speed sales growth ambition and product muscle came from Australian BYD distributor EVDirect’s new CEO, David Smitherman, rather than his boss Luke Todd, who has often been prone to making bold – if not outrageous – claims.

BYD announces stunning Australian sales and new model ambitions – carsales.com.au

BYD Australia 2024 as an insight into BYD export plans & goals.

Follow the 3 EV only models, now information is that for Australia in 2024, BYD is introducing two DM-i models. DM-i is name BYD use for their most efficient Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), which they consider more advanced that PHEVs sold outside of China, as explained below.

These two new PHEVs will be a larger family size SUV and a Ute/Pickup, and as such are targeting some of the largest vehicle market segments.

So, what changed that has made BYD increase focus on PHEVs? One possibility that conservative approach meant launching a “Ute” or pickup in key export markets would require offering a PHEV in order to give appropriate range. The battery size needed to give the range needed for some applications of a Ute / Pickup is expensive. Realistically, even the Tesla Cybertruck does not have the range many pickup owners want. In fact, I suspect it could validly be said that current EV Utes are more suited to only city-based applications such as for tradesmen in cities, but otherwise, they only really cater for people who never really needed a Ute in the first place. Once you need to introduce one DM-i PHEV, then perhaps it makes sense to spread the support costs a little wider, so for most markets, it is either no PHEVs, or at the very least two?

But given BYD also seems to be increasing focus on PHEVs even in China, it could be that in Australia the plan may be more about targeting not just the around 10% in Australia and other lagging markets who buy EVs, but the 90% who still buy internal combustion engine vehicles or hybrids. appears to provide sufficient reason for BYD to move from an EV only strategy.

In China, latest March 2024 sales show a marked lift in the percent of PHEVs sold by BYD, reaching record numbers despite overall sales still below the December 2024 level.

All this is even before the latest generation of BYD DM-i (PHEV) vehicles have even been launched.

After declaring a “liberation battle” against gas-powered cars earlier this year, BYD, or Build Your Dreams, is putting pressure on overseas rivals.

During an investor meeting on Wednesday, BYD’s CEO, Wang Chaunfu, said it will launch its next-gen hybrid tech offering over 1,200 miles (2,000 km) range. We reported earlier this month that BYD looks to crush gas-powered car sales with its newest platform.

Its next-gen DM-i system will enable an even more range at a lower cost. According to a new Yicai report (translated), Chaunfu said BYD will launch its next-gen DM-i platform in May.

Electrek, March 2024: BYD says EVs have entered the ‘knockout round’ with next-gen tech rolling out

BYD is set to launch its fifth-generation DM system, with the DM-i branch enabling the vehicle to consume as little as 2.9 L of fuel per 100 kilometers, and drive close to 2,000 kilometers on a full tank of fuel and full charge, 36kr cited a source at the meeting as saying.

As a comparison, conventional gasoline cars typically have a range of only about 600 km when filled up with gas, the report noted.

Even models from local counterparts will struggle to compete with BYD’s latest DM technology, according to the report.

BYD to launch next-gen PHEV and BEV platforms to make further offensive against petrol cars, report says

Is there a market niche for BYD PHEVs? It all comes down to that critical element: price.

If BYD DM-i vehicles can compete on price with traditional internal combustion vehicles in terms of purchase price, then given the promised fuel economy and that the choice of electric or fuel for day-to-day driving will ensure the lowest possible running costs, they should do well.

Plus, 2024 appears to herald even more advanced DM-i “EV first” hybrids:

BYD continues its post-Chinese New Year model update move with refreshed versions of the Ocean series’ Song Plus, Seal DM-i priced significantly lower than previous versions.

BYD continues model update with refreshed Song Plus, Seal DM-i (note it is the Ocean Series Song Plus)

The new energy vehicle (NEV) maker will launch its fifth-generation DM (Dual Mode) hybrid technology in May, which will see fuel consumption drop to 2.9 liters per 100 kilometers on a low charge and give the vehicles a range of up to 2,000 kilometers on a full tank of fuel and full charge, said Wang Chuanfu, the company’s chairman and president. …

BYD will gradually make the switch to the fifth-generation DM technology in May depending on market conditions as demand for the current models exceeds supply, Wang said, adding that the popularity of models equipped with the next-generation hybrid technology is expected to continue for one to two years.

BYD investor event: 5th-gen DM hybrid tech, sales target, and more

DM-i / PHEV Hybrid export strategy and image challenges.

Of those 4.2 million sales forecasts, 2 million will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and another 2.2 million will be plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with lower-priced models dominating sales, the report said, citing another source close to BYD.

BYD’s initial plan for its 2024 sales target is 4 million units, report says

BYD has come a long way in recent years, from outside the top 10 in China in 2020 to no1 by 2023.

On one hand, they had help in China from a rise in Chinese nationalism and for a government who gave buyers an incentive to buy EVs and EV based hybrids in preference to ICEVs and ICE based hybrids.

On the other hand, they did not have their current product and technology portfolio, nor the 90,000 engineers.

To get a sense of scale: BYD employs more than 90,000 employees in its research and development departments, and more than 4,000 of them working on L2-level smart driving. BYD says it has 230,000 employees in total spread over 50 campuses across the world.

BYD’s cars are getting smarter, and its huge R&D staff could fill a city | Electrek

What may be missing, is marketing.

The PHEV hybrid problem.

The reality is plug-in hybrids allow quite effective cheating on all the standard EPA/WLTP etc fuel efficiency tests. These tests are also the flawed in the way they provide data for EV range specifications, but with PHEVs, it is even worse.

PHEVs can be seen as Dual Mode vehicles, as described by BYD, and really need separate test numbers for each mode, but efficiency tests provide one single number, which will normally make even the most inefficient PHEV look it consumes almost no fuel at all.

The problem is that fossil fuel consumed is measured over the standard test cycle, with the vehicle driven on an assumption of how the two modes will be used, that just does not match with the real world.

The result is completely unrealistic fuel consumption numbers, that people become aware are totally unrealistic, which creates bad press:

There are hundreds-of-thousands of plug-in hybrids on Australia’s roads, many of which are doing high milage as ride-share vehicles, however the EU real-world data shows that these vehicles aren’t really much different to regular petrol cars when it comes to fuel efficiency and vehicle emissions.

Toyota’s plug-in hybrids emit four times more CO2 than company claims

The lack of a meaningful test procedures for efficiency can allow lower quality vehicles to get to market, damaging the reputation of the segment. Even if BYD is bringing better efficiency PHEVs to the market, how can that be demonstrated given that it is well known that official figures can mean very little.

DM-i background: “EV first” hybrids, and why batteries matter.

Cost of high voltage battery aside, hybrids, and particularly EV first hybrids are much simpler with less parts than traditional ICE vehicles. From the video below on Toyota hybrids, it can be seen how the combination of E-CVT, which more like no gearbox at all than it is like a conventional CVT, and two motor-generators, are in fact less complex than a conventional gearbox, alternator and starter motor system. Note the conventional ICE system has two motor generators in the form of the alternator and starter motor, which can be more expensive than the motor generators in a hybrid. The goal of EV first hybrids, is to keep it even simpler than other hybrids, offsetting the cost of the high voltage battery.

In practice, there are many reasons why all hybrids should be less expensive than non-hybrids and can, surprisingly, have less to wrong. Blame the price on Wright’s law and that those non-hybrid systems have be the main product for over 100 years, while hybrids are still on the cost reduction curve. Or were, and maybe some are now just making more profit on hybrids.

BYD Super DM Technology differs from other PHEV technologies. At the heart of BYD Super DM Technology is an electric-based hybrid system. This hybrid architecture uses a high-power motor drive and large-capacity power battery as its primary power source, only using the engine for assistance. This innovative system focuses on efficiency, effortlessly adapting to different driving scenarios.

What are the benefits?

• With a fully charged battery, the vehicle becomes pure electric.
• When SOC is low, it transforms into an ultra-low fuel consumption hybrid vehicle.
• Prioritises electric power with minimal reliance on fuel.
• Kinder to the environment.
• Offers greater energy efficiencies and lower fuel consumption.
• Creates a quiet and comfortable ride.
• Supplies high-power performance and responsiveness.

BYD EU website.

Marketing talk side, that seems at least a reasonable overview, repeating similar terminology to my own analysis prior to finding this BYD version. It seems even Toyota have judged BYD hybrids to bring something new: Toyota plans using BYD’s plug-in hybrid DM-i platform to launch 3 PHEV models in 3 years in China

Initially the specifications of “EV first” hybrids seem crazy.

The BYD Bao 5 has 1.5 l engine, yet despite weighing 2,890 kg (6,371 lb.), does 0-100km in 4.8 second, because it is powered by 505kW courtesy of its electric motors. For comparison the Land Rover Defender V8 weighs 2,546kg yet its 5 litre supercharged engine takes 5.2 seconds from 0-100, and the Mercedes G500 weights 2.485kg comes with a 4 litre turbocharged V8 tuned by AMG takes 5.8 seconds and, as a reviewer puts it, the Bao 5 “smokes” them in performance. With a 1.5 litre engine. Oh, and 505kW of electric power.

Bao 5

With an EV first hybrid, it is the electric motors that reveal how much power there is when full power is needed, and the role of the ICE is to extend range. Even if not technically an Extended Range Electric Vehicle or EREV, the only role of the ICE is to extend range. Yes, in some circumstances with BYD DM systems the ICE as directly provide power to the wheels, but when this happens, it is only about efficiently extending range. When real power is required, that will still come from the electric motors. The most critical role of the ICE is to ensure than while ever there is fuel available to generate power, the batteries will be kept at the minimum level required to power the electric motors.

With a DM system, the “what happens when the battery is flat” is somewhat academic, as the battery will only get flat if the ICE either has no fuel or is broken and can’t generate power. Yes, when the battery is flat you are stuck, because the battery can only get flat with the internal combustion engine can operate.

There are still some questions about DM systems, like if even when the “vehicle becomes pure electric” because there is sufficient charge in the battery, are there still may when using the ICE for assistance will be required? On further reading, there is some vagueness on that BYD page linked about discussing those points, possibly resulting from the list being a description of the overall systems of DM-i, DM-p and DMO.

Aren’t BYD hybrids just ICEV hybrids with a plug like other hybrids?

Not all hybrids are the same. A hybrid is a vehicle somewhere between an ICEV and an EV. There are two basic ways to make one:

1. You can start with an ICEV and progressively modify it to more and more like an EV.
2. You can start with an EV and progressively modify it to more like and ICEV.

Hybrids are a continuum from mild hybrids little different to standard gasoline engine cars through to plug-in EVs with a large battery at a gasoline engine that it like carrying a generator for emergencies.

Moving from an ICE vehicle to an EV can be broken into 7 steps resulting in 7 different hybrid types.

One of the biggest differences between approaches to make a hybrid, is whether the vehicle design starts as an ICE vehicle and adds the EV features to produce the hybrid or starts as an EV with a gasoline engine added to provide extended range and moves backwards through the steps. Starting with an EV only really makes sense when taking every hybrid step, but it does result in the most “EV hybrid” possible, and “EV first” hybrid built on an EV platform

The reason most hybrids feel more an ICE vehicle is they are based on an ICE platform.

Almost all hybrids take the first 2 or 3 steps by adding a serial hybrid mode, simplifying the drive train using EV drive compatible units for the role of starter and alternator and using a higher voltage to increase electric drive power. The Mitsubishi Outlander and Nissan e-Power models take a 4th and add full serial EV power modes, but BYD make things very different by taking all 7 steps outlined, mostly because only BYD and Tesla have volume producing EVs to have a cost effectively EV as a starting point, and Tesla is not interesting in the “backward” step of adding a range extender.

The approach of starting from an EV is that you arrive at the final step at a lower cost, and the downside is you have no cost-effective conventional ICE vehicle or non-plug-in hybrid to sell to customers not wanting a full-on EV-first plug-in hybrid.

While a conventional plug-in hybrid built on an ICE vehicle platform keeps the same combustion engine centric design but adds the possibility of energy originally coming the electric grid instead of all coming from the gas pump but tends to be less drivable on electric power alone. Having another source of charge can make for a better “EV mode” experience, but not full EV experience of a vehicle with full serial EV power, such as a Mitsubishi Outlander or a BYD hybrid.

In the West, sales of conventional plug-in hybrids have been falling, and all evidence is that most were rarely even plugged-in anyway, which meant potential benefits over non-plug-in hybrids were rarely realised. In many countries, drivers have cars and car expenses as part of their salary package, and their fuel use is included provided they use their fuel card, but charging an EV at home would be at their expense, so even though charging at home should costs less, the system distorted the costs and meant the savings would all go to the company, not the driver. Often, the plug-in hybrid was chosen to qualify for governments incentives, not because the owner planned to plug-in.

Since regular hybrids get all their power from fossil fuels, “EV purists” see them as a step that is just too small towards eliminating use of fossil fuels to bother with. On the other hand, many of those happy to stay with fossil-fuel vehicles, view hybrids very positively.

But in practice, the problem with ICE vehicle based plug-in hybrids is they fail to deliver on the promise of being hybrid + an EV because:

1. They fail as an EV because the EV drive system is only a helper drive system that has too little power to provide a good experience when operating on its own.
2. They can be even more expensive than even quite expensive full EVs.

This leads to the question: “Can EV-first hybrids success where other plug-in hybrids have failed?”

In Chian, the answer is “yes”. Outside China, we are about to find out.

BYD DM-i vehicles are a form of EREV with a complete EV drive train and a simplified combustion engine drive train, and in fact EREV vehicles like the Mitsubishi Outlander have been on the market for some time.

What BYD brings to the table over and above the Mitsubishi Outlander, an “EV first” hybrid made on a true EV platform, from a company with a lot of EV experience, with a battery technology in LFP more suited to the task.

Sealion 06 DM-i and Shark DM-i/DMO (Ute/Pickup): Hybrids based on EVs.

It has been suggested that both BYD Sealion 6 and the BYD Shark (Ute/Pickup) vehicles for international release will be using DM-i platform, but while the Sealion 06 is DM-i, it is now confirmed Shark will the more off-road focused DMO platform. Regardless, both DM-i and DMO are both very interesting platforms.

The PHEV “Sealion 6” is already on sale in China as the Song Plus Champion Edition DM-i, and this is the newest refreshed version of what was the third bestselling car in China with 390,000 sales in 2023, although whether the model released will be the upcoming second-generation model is not yet clear.

While the BYD Shark (“Pickup” or “Ute”) is an all-new vehicle, based on the DMO platform, with it is claimed having a long range of around 1,000 kms and around 350 kW of power.

The Mitsubishi Outlander: Partly EV based, but not DM-i.

A diagram and explanation of the 2012 (released 2014 in Australia) show the Mitsubishi Outlander appears to take the exact same approach as BYD DM-i PHEVs. One key difference is that the Outlander is built on a traditional ICE vehicle platform, and even if it has an “EV first” drivetrain, building an “EV First” vehicle on an ICEV platform has had compromises and has generally resulted in vehicles more expensive than using “ICE First” hybrid drivetrains.

Released in Australia in 2014, just before the far more expensive Tesla Model S was launched Australia, at a time when almost no-one in Australia bought any form of EV, the Outlander PHEV could be said to be way ahead of its time.

The only problem for the Outlander is that, while it has evolved somewhat, competitors have evolved far more. In 2023 at A$58,000 dollars for base model and up to A$73,000 for fully equipped vehicles, Tesla now has better equipped Model 3s from A$61,000 which is competitive with the Outlander price while back in 2014 the lowest priced Tesla was over A$90,000 and the Outlander $47,000. Now BYD EVs and other full EVs are available for less 2/3rd the price of the Outlander, and a conventional Toyota RAV4 hybrid is less expensive. The Outlander is AWD and not all those rivals are, and even AWD rivals may be less off-road capable, but pricing just hasn’t kept up with EV pricing.

The pure electric “EV First” drivetrain is present, but savings from reducing the complexity of the combustion drivetrain are not realised. Plus, even though the Outlander PHEV is an EREV, which means it requires basically an EV platform, it is based on a combustion engine platform, and EVs on combustion engine platforms tend to be overprice.

As indicated in this article from January 2024: Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV U.S. Sales More Than Tripled In 2023, sales are rising, but Mitsubishi as a brand has not had a great 10 years since 2014, the company is now significantly smaller than BYD, with as of January 2024 BYD valued at around US$75 billion and Mitsubishi at US$4.5 billion. Mitsubishi just doesn’t have the budget to deliver the same advances.

Aside from being built on an ICE platform and not using LFP batteries, and having a slightly relatively more reliance on its Atkinson cycle gasoline engine, most other technical details are similar to those of the DM-i system described below.

Toyota “Synergy Drive” Hybrids.

Toyota have had hybrids since 1997 and have by now in 2024 produced more than any other company.

Currently “Hybrid Synergy Drive” Toyota produce mostly “ICE Based” hybrids with ICE-First drivetrains that implements steps 1,2,3 of those listed here, and ICE Based plug-in hybrids that also implement steps 5 and 6.

While Toyota is said to be planning to move to BYD technology for EV first hybrids, their ICE based hybrids are state of the art ICE based hybrids, cost effective and simpler overall than traditional ICE vehicles. So why does Toyota still have higher prices for hybrids than non-hybrids? The answer is to be found in Wright’s law and what I call the Psitechian corollary, and over time, these hybrids should being to be lower cost than traditional gasoline vehicles, at which point, Toyota, like BYD, will most likely stop producing traditional ICE vehicles that are not hybrids.

Toyota do use engines that have Atkinson cycle for efficiency but with ICE first hybrid drivetrains, Toyota hybrids all require a transmission which in the current range an “e-CVT”s as the transmission.

Toyota has experience with CVTs, and while previous Toyota CVTs had special features like an extra drive gear for low range, the e-CVT system uses electric power as the strategy to address limitation of a CVT or other gearbox, and results in a hybrid that overall has less parts than an a traditional ICEV.

The “self-charging” models without plug-in ability use NiMH batteries of lest than 2kWh that should allow EV level battery life provided they are in use around 1/10th of the time.

The “self-charging + plug-in” models use Li-ion battery of 8.8kWh in the Prius Prime or 18.1kWh in the RAV4 prime, that should allow being driven on battery power alone for around 1/7 or 1/3 of the time while maintaining battery life.

DM-i EV-First hybrids from BYD.

BYD DM-i vehicle of a least generation 4 are “EV First + plug-in” hybrids that require only a fixed ratio transmission and use LFP batteries to allow similar to EV battery life even driven on battery power 100% of the time.

DM-i hybrids normally operate conventional serial “EV first” hybrids, but can switch into hybrid into parallel mode engaging a direct drive from gasoline engine at speeds above around 60km/h depending on model, to, at least in theory, combine the best of both worlds.

For example, the “Sealion 06” 2WD model uses an 18.3 kWh LFP battery and the 4WD model uses a 26.6kWh LFP battery, which should provide similar battery life at least to equivalent full battery EVs with Li-ion batteries of around 60 to 75kWh, even when only driven on battery power alone.

Although DM-i vehicles deliver full power from electric motors alone, since no electric motor is the source of power, something has to supply that full power to the motors. Vehicle batteries on DM-i vehicles cannot alone deliver enough power to the electric motors for their maximum power, so for maximum power, the gasoline engine must function as generator providing extra power.

For the reason that Qin Plus adopts the series-parallel hybrid structure, which has only one transmission ratio for parallel mode drive, this mode operates when the velocity is higher than 60 km/h. This is very distinct from Qin Pro. The previous generation powertrain is equipped with a DCT (Dual Clutch Transmission) gearbox so that it can complete the direct drive of the engine to the wheel end in any state.

Multi-System Coupling DMi Hybrid Vehicle Modeling and Its Performance Analysis Based on Simulation

The takeaway is that whilst previous generations of BYD PHEV were more like Volvo or other PHEVs on the market, this latest DM-i has only a single transmission ratio, and can only provide ICE power to the wheels at speeds over 60km/h.

These vehicles always start in pure EV series hybrid mode, with the internal combustion engine only being able to take a role in providing power to the wheels at speeds over 60 km/h. In urban conditions, the vehicle is restricted to being an “EREV”, and with typical range of at least 100 km on battery alone, could go months and months without use of the ICE, provided the reduced power available is sufficient.

As outlined below, I am not a fan of hybrids, but if these are priced right, and the “Sealion 06” is priced below the Seal sedan in China, then they could be very successful even outside China.

DMO: Dual Mode Offroad.

It is still hard to obtain full details, but it appears DMO retains a CVT transmission, as do BYD DM-p hybrids, which will make the vehicles more expensive, and potentially less efficient when driven in modes where the CVT is engaged.

This raises the question as to why DM-i is less suited for off-road driving. Interestingly, the only DMO vehicle released so far, the Bao 5, has a 145kW Xaioyun Atkinson cycle gasoline engine and a 200kW and 285kw motors than can somehow combine for a total power output of 505kW, which would require the 360 kW of power to be sourced from the 31kWh battery.

First consider when parallel modes where the wheels are driven using mechanical power from gasoline.

In conditions where loads and engine speeds of a gasoline engine continually vary, then using the engine as generator will almost always be more efficient than mechanical drive from the engine to the wheels. However, when driving and maintaining a constant speed, and often happens with highway driving, then with an appropriate gear ratio, the gasoline engine could be at optimum load and RPM while mechanically powering the vehicle, and this would avoid the losses from converting energy into electricity and back.

DM-i and the Mitsubishi Outlander rely on the speed and load from highway driving being within a relatively narrow band. Off road vehicles may need a much wider band, as they may be towing, driving on sand, mud, or snow, to some other reason. However, this is really at this stage just a guess.

DM-i & DMO: It is all about price and efficiency.

So, what does BYD DM-i offer in comparison to the Toyota hybrids and the Mitsubishi Outlander?

Firstly, the move to LFP batteries can address step 5 the “small battery equal short life” questions, plus with BYD making their own low cost LFP battery, the keep the cost of the battery low. Next, unlike the Outlander, the Sealion 06 is a ground up EV, as per step 7, which has a significant impact on cost and packaging. However, they are not directly comparable vehicles, the RAV4 being a more direct rival.

After that, it is all details to improve efficiency and reduce costs for a given level of performance. The goal of BYD is to have sufficient cost savings from reducing the internal combustion power needed and removing the transmission of a regular ICE vehicle conventional hybrid/plug-in hybrid to more than offset the cost of the battery and recharging system. If BYD succeed in that goal, then they produce vehicles with a least equal specifications for a lower cost. Which, judging by their meteoric rise in market share in China, they can at least manage at home.

In practice, people tend to be either committed to pure EVs or hesitant about them, with those not committed happy to stay with ICE vehicles. Those looking to the future want some form hybrid, but the story that DM-i will be “more an EV” than other PHEVs will probably be no easier for BYD to sell than it was for Mitsubishi with the Outlander, which Mitsubishi seemed to give up explaining did not have a CVT or normally drive using gasoline after around 2014. If the Sealion 06 is rated as more efficient than competitors, that could help sales, but people buying for efficiency will normally also focus on price. So, again, the bottom line will be price.

EV fans and those happy with hybrids both see most plug-in hybrids as still just hybrids, with few seeming to see the plug as major advantage. Those who do evaluate the plug-in aspect may appreciate the battery size and electric motor power of DM-i vehicles, but 0-100 times may be most important. For EV fans any hybrid is still suboptimal even if driving as an EV, and to those still buying ICE vehicle, they are most likely only going to move when there is no cost penalty and won’t necessarily pay more for one type of hybrid rather than another.

This page will be updated as prices are revealed, but the basic premise of DM-i Song Plus in China is less than the price of a BYD Seal in China, and the Seal in Australia starts from just under A$50,000, so the “Sealion 06” could be very competitively priced. Given that the similarly sized pure EV BYD Sea Lion 07 is also now scheduled for Australian release, and the given the “Sealion 06” is really the Chinese Song Plus which is now scheduled to be updated to a 2nd generation vehicle later this year, the picture becomes more complicated.

For the Shark, the price will probably be announced by June 2024, as there are several markets where prices could be revealed.

Technically: Seven different steps to levels of hybrid.

There are several areas where gasoline hybrids can provide improved fuel efficiency and reduced running costs compared to traditional gasoline powered vehicles.

Ways to gain efficiency:

1. Regenerative braking: Reducing the amount of fuel used in acceleration by recovering up 50% of that used in the acceleration when the vehicle decelerates.
2. Use of electric power in circumstances when gasoline engines are less efficient, such as when outside ideal RPM and load, and allowing the use of combustion cycles such as Atkinson cycle that have increase efficiency but result in narrow powerbands.
3. Allow use of less powerful gasoline engines, which due to natural of gasoline engines, are more efficient when maximum power is not required through the use of electric to power to produce maximum power.
   • Note this comes at the cost of limiting the time maximum power is available, making some hybrids less suitable for long periods of driving at maximum possible speeds such as may be desired sometimes on German Autobahns, but bring significant gains when maximum power is required only for acceleration, and long periods are normally at 130km/h or less.
4. Allow use of other energy sources by enabling battery charging.

Starting from the basic parallel hybrid “gasoline engine with an added electric motor”, here are the key steps to arrive at the “EV first hybrid with a gasoline engine as a range extender”:

1. Add serial hybrid mode, aka EV mode, to an ICEV to make a hybrid.
2. Mild hybrid: Simplify drive train by using EV components for starter, alternator etc.
3. Add high voltage as an “ICE First” full hybrid with more significant electric motor power.
4. Full serial EV power as an efficient “EV First” hybrid with a reduced ICE drivetrain.
5. Increase battery size and cycles and further decrease ICE for EV battery life and power.
6. Add on-board battery charging to “Self-charging” providing an alternative to gasoline power.
7. Build the hybrid on a ground up EV platform.

At step 0, the vehicle is an ICE, and the 8th step, removing the ICE and further increase battery size, results in a full EV.

These steps are numbered in the order if starting from an ICE, but in reality, the more steps to be taken, the more sense it makes to start from the bottom and work backwards.

There are two reasons to include all of these steps:

• Cost reduction.
• Fuel economy.

Every step from the conventional gasoline engine to a hybrid further enables some combination of cost reduction of the steps and more fuel economy but each further step can make it better to go back and redo previous steps differently, armed with the knowledge of what comes next. The cost reductions come from the fact that knowing in advance how much of powering the vehicle will end up being reliance on electric power allows lower cost solutions to all else.

Most brands start with an ICE vehicle, because that have that ICE vehicle already on sale, which makes producing vehicles all the way to step 1 expensive.

BYD gave up making ICE vehicles, and even step 1, 2 or 3 hybrids that other brands make, because when, like BYD, you start with an EV and work backwards, it is the top items on the list that are least competitive.

The other “secret sauce” of BYD hybrids has been LFP batteries, and conventional lithium-ion batteries don’t give poor battery life when a vehicle with a small battery is mostly driven on battery power.

Make a hybrid by replacing starter and alternator to add serial hybrid mode.

The goal with any hybrid is to minimize fossil fuel consumption, and key to achieving many of the possible hybrid gains is to power vehicle as much as possible from electric power alone in serial hybrid mode.

What all hybrids require, is a way to add electric drive and integrate “regen braking” by brake by wire and/or lift of regen, and the battery capacity to store electricity. All hybrids have a serial hybrid mode, and most also have a parallel hybrid mode, and adding either of these capabilities to modern car is easy, as most modern vehicles have already replaced hydraulic powered components with electric powered component.

While this first step of adding a serial hybrid mode or serial/parallel hybrid mode may sound like a big step, apart from an additional battery and wiring for the higher voltage circuits, there no other extra components, and with less stress on the ICE power unit, no reason why overall the vehicle need be less reliable vehicle than non-hybrid vehicles.

The changes to components for this a serial or serial/parallel hybrid are:

1. The ICE can be reduced in power, and particularly in low down torque, since both can be assisted by electric drive, allowing lower cost and more efficient ICE engines, and use of the more efficient Atkinson cycle.
2. The starter motor can be swapped for an electric motor/generator which effectively replaces the starter motor, which in a hybrid can be configured to start the ICE, generate high voltage power, and provide a simple replacement for gearbox and provide variable gear ratios from the ICE, as explained below.
3. A second electric drive motor/generator, effectively replacing the alternator, which can provide the main electric drive motor and regenerative braking.
4. Either just eliminating the gearbox for a serial only hybrid or replacing the gear box with a simplified planetary gear set, acting as the electrically powered equivalent of a far more complex and less reliable CVT, with the planetary gear set driven by the first electric motor.
5. Either the existing low voltage battery, or an additional high voltage battery, capable of being charged by the generator and braking, as well as providing power for electric drive.
6. Optionally switching from radiator + air conditioning to a single unit that functions as both heat pump and air conditioner avoids the need for auxiliary heating when driving without the heat from the ICE.

Apart from a high voltage battery, every ICE vehicle already has components matching everything necessary to be a hybrid, and in some ways can even have more than a hybrid requires.

The motor generator replacing the starter motor can typically be smaller and simpler than a traditional starter motor system, due to the use of higher voltages, as motor windings for higher voltages can be thinner.

Upgrading the alternator to be the main electric drive motor need not be really incurring any extra cost, particularly when factoring in the fact that a traditional alternator needs drive belts and can need to produce between 40 and 200 amps, while an EV motor generator handling 200 amps per phase can be sufficient for a 240kW motor/generator working at hybrid voltages.

As for the gearbox, a complex, potentially 10 speeds + reverse gearbox, can effectively be replaced by just a planetary gear set, as explained by Professor John D. Kelly as embedded in the explanation of Toyota hybrids above, and again linked here.

Not all hybrids can take advantage of that ability to basically eliminate the need for a gearbox. The smaller the internal combustion engine, the more efficient solutions such as the planetary gearbox become, which means this most desirable solution works best with either vehicles that have moderate total power, or are EV first hybrid where most power comes from the electric motors, such as the 505kW Bao 5 that uses only a 1.5 litre ICE or BYD U8 with 880kW of power despite only having a 2.0litre gasoline engine.

While limiting to a serial only hybrid slightly eliminates the need for planetary drive, modern hybrids have reduced this to being the only saving over having a hybrid also capable of parallel hybrid mode under some circumstances, as with BYD DM-i or the Mitsubishi Outlander style hybrids, or with just a few added components, having parallel mode under wider circumstances such as with BYD DMO or Toyota hybrids.

Taking the first steps overcomes key weakness of all internal combustion engines, the minimum “idling” RPM for operation, and very low power available until engine speed increases even further above the minimum. By contrast, an electric motor has maximum torque at zero RPM, so using “best of both” will mean using the electric motor for starting off and at very low speeds whenever possible. Even a 20kW electric motor can be better for the first few moments from a standstill from a standstill than a 150kW gasoline engine.

Mild hybrids and beyond: the simplest serial/parallel hybrids.

The logic behind a mild hybrid, is to take advantage of electric motors having maximum torque at zero RPM, and thus providing the greatest benefit over ICE when accelerating from rest and at very low speeds. Fuel economy can be improved by stopping a gasoline engine any time a vehicle is stopped, but then there is the problem of starting again. Using an electric motor stronger than a typical starter motor allows starting in gear and still having the boost of electric power as gasoline engine RPM increases.

The typical acceleration is use when starting from the traffic lights will ensure most mild hybrids only operate in serial hybrid/EV mode for seconds before activating the gasoline engine, but the far gentler acceleration required to crawl forward in a traffic jam can be in many cases be powered in EV mode without starting the gasoline engine.

The result is a noticeable gain in efficiency and potentially the same total power without any increase in costs.

Like all steps towards an EV, the limitations are set by the batteries in use. Mild hybrids use a battery of no more than 48 volts, as this voltage is just safely below the limit of high voltages that are dangerous to humans. Avoiding voltages that are dangerous to humans means avoiding safety systems needed isolate the high voltage systems for safety reasons. Every car, even high voltage EVs need voltage system of 48volts or less in order to provide safe power available even when high voltage systems are shut down, so not only does keeping power at maximum of 48 volts save on the safety systems, but it also means that the entire car can have extra battery power but still one need one battery. Sadly, some mild hybrids have both a 12v and 48v battery, but hopefully that is just an interim step.

The use of 48V architectures is on the rise because the electrical consumption of cars has gone up due to more complex infotainment, connectivity and navigation systems and the dozens of driver assistance systems emerging. Cameras, radar, sensors and controllers plus the electronic systems to go with them all need more power than a 12V system can deliver. A 48V set-up also allows jobs normally done by the engine – such as powering electric water pumps, air conditioning compressors, oil pumps and heating – to be offloaded to electrical power, saving fuel.

Under the skin: Why modern cars need 48V electrical systems

As well as providing for enough power for mild hybrids, switching to 48v electrical systems saves wiring costs since high voltages allow the same power on thinner wires, so it is very likely that in future all internal combustion vehicles will be at least mild hybrids.

Use a high voltage ICE First hybrid drivetrain: Higher voltages, more electric motor power.

While 48-volt systems now support 30kW motors, the more power increases, the more expensive keeping voltages low becomes, and even Toyota hybrids with NiMH batteries all use voltages over twice that of 48-volt systems.

Upping the voltage brings things to the level normally seen as a “full” hybrid. Also, somewhat confusingly, sometimes described as either parallel hybrid, sometimes a serial/parallel hybrid, sometimes a serial hybrid, and even more confusingly “self-charging hybrid”.

Maximum power is usually results from a combination of gasoline and electric motors operating together.

What defines this type of vehicle beyond the use of a high voltage battery is that maximum power still comes from maximum power of the gasoline engine together with an extra boost of power from electric motor(s) when both drivetrains operate in parallel. This characteristic of the reliance on parallel drivetrains is why these vehicles are often, but not always, defined as parallel hybrids.

The parallel vs serial/parallel ambiguity arises because since hybrids offer a serial mode, then technically all parallel hybrids can also be described as serial/parallel hybrids, but normally “serial hybrid” is only used for vehicles that where lack of a gearbox connection between gasoline engine the wheels make parallel hybrid mode impossible. The “self-charging” hybrid is a more deliberate confusion by marketing to try and make absence feature into a positive, as all hybrids are equally self-charging, and this label only indicates the absence of any alternative to self-charging that all hybrids do equally well.

These high voltage hybrids are the most common hybrids, like those made famous by Toyota, including the Toyota Prius and Toyota RAV4 hybrid. Confusingly some articles suggest the Prius is a serial hybrid, and sometimes a serial-parallel hybrid, and some of that is more Toyota marketing speak and by industry agreed definitions, the Prius is clearly a parallel hybrid, although as already explained, all hybrids do offer a serial hybrid mode, and with 4wd hybrids, almost always drive to the rear wheels is exclusively by electric power and thus that of a serial hybrid as with the Volvo XC60 PHEV.

This type of hybrid is still more ICEV than EV, and this is usually made clear by the power of the gasoline engine being greater than that of the electric motors, and the power available without using the gasoline engine being restricted by the power available from the quite small battery.

Take for example the RAV4 4wd hybrid where the two electric motors have combined power of 88kW, and the gasoline engine has 131kW of power and all motors can be combined for 160 kW of power.

This contrasts when compared to an “EV first” hybrid like the BYD Sealion 06 which in 4wd form has total electric power of 270kW and lower gasoline power of only 96kW and only produces total power of 238kW which is less than electric power alone.

With the “ICE first” drivetrain most power comes from the gasoline engine, and combined power is greater than that of either drive system alone: a true parallel hybrid, where optimum results are from both systems operating in parallel.

In contrast, the in “EV First” vehicle maximum power is determined not be the motors, but by the power the electrical system can provide.

Although at this time the Wikipedia page for Toyota Synergy drive has some misleading comments on rival products like “HSD technology produces a full hybrid vehicle which allows the car to run on the electric motor only, as opposed to most other brand hybrids which cannot and are considered mild hybrids“, it does still contain interesting information, such as that excluding plug-in hybrids, the largest battery capacity as used in the RAV4 Hybrid is rated at 1.6kWh, and has a maximum discharge rate of 24kW.

Although RAV4 motors can deliver 88kW, those motors do not produce any kW, and can instead only deliver the number of kW supplied to them by the battery and/or by the gasoline engine acting as a generator.

Clearly battery power alone cannot provide the 88kW the electric motors can deliver, and power in pure EV mode would be very limited. Plus, drawing the lower maximum of 24kW from a 1.5kWh battery will flatten that battery in just 4 minutes.

These are limitations to this “ICE first” hybrid drive system, but in practice the limitations are less significant that it may sound, because those peak power levels are only normally only needed for brief bursts of acceleration. Keeping a vehicle like a RAV4 at a constant speed, which is what is required over longer periods of time, even at highway speeds requires typically less than 24kW, and at 30km/h common in zones requiring emission free motoring can require closer to 5kW.

This system substantially increases the ability to use gains in efficiency that from having a combustion engine that does not need to alone produce full power, nor provide full torque, which allows use of more efficient engine cycles such as the Atkinson cycle.

In fact, many original Toyota hybrids use Atkinson cycle engines, however since these reduce drivability when electric power is not available, Toyota now uses engines which can vary between Atkinson and the more common Otto cycle.

Even if most of the electrical power cannot be driven for long by a small battery, it is still useful for operation as a serial hybrid when peak power is not required. For example, a modified “e-CVT” gearbox can be simplified by use EV power alone for reverse, and simply spinning the electric motor in reverse and eliminating the complexity of adding reverse to a conventional CVT.

Full EV power as an efficient serial “EV First” hybrid with a reduced ICE drivetrain.

The next step is to allow full power operation by electric power alone. Even formula one race cars are headed in this direction, even though proposed 2026 rule changes still don’t really mean the ICE is yet just in support of the battery:

“So, the prospect of the engine working hard in the middle of Loews hairpin is going to take some getting used to.”

Up until now, the battery has been used to accompany the combustion side of the engine but Newey is suggesting that from 2026, the ICE will be there to support the battery.

Planet F1 April 2024: Adrian Newey’s ‘strange’ warning should prompt F1 into 2026 rethink

This is the level electric power needed to enable vehicles to be considered a fully serial hybrid because drive from the conventional ICE drivetrain is not required for the vehicle to produce full power.

Vehicles incorporating this step include BYD DM-i hybrids, the Mitsubishi Outlander Hybrid, Nissan e-Power vehicles, range extender EVs such as the BMW I3, and most “diesel locomotives” as most are diesel-electric locomotives.

Why bother? The first key reason is this the electric motors can provide the perfect transmission without the need for, or losses from, any form of CVT or conventional gearbox.

The efficiency of combustion engines is highly variable and results in real world use is typically averaging around 25% despite engine with over 43% efficiency being possible, so a key to fuel efficiency is using the engine produce at its highest possible efficiency as often as possible.

The electric motors being able to provide full power alone, allows for near perfect transmission of power from gasoline engine + battery to the wheels, with the gasoline engine generating power for the electric motor(s). Where battery capacity is able to provide a sufficient buffer, then the gasoline engine need only provide enough power maintain the battery as buffer over the longer term, enabling use of an engine of significantly lower power than vehicle peak power, and as operation of the engine is independent of driving conditions, the engine can be only operated at optimum load and optimum RPM.

The 4WD BYD Sealion 06 DM-i with 26.6kWh battery and a 96kW of gasoline power being able deliver peak vehicle power of 238kW provides an example of this in practice. The 2024 Mitsubishi Outlander with 98kW of gasoline power and peak vehicle power of 185kW comes close even with a smaller 20kWh battery capable of less cycles, while the Nissan X-Trail with only a 1.8kWh battery and a 115kW gasoline engine is delivers maximum power of 157kW.

The larger the battery the greater the cost, but also the greater the reward.

Increase battery size and cycles and for EV battery power and lifetime.

Small batteries provide only a short life battery in terms of kilometers driven on battery power.

While attention is often focused on battery life with pure EVs, this is in practice a far bigger risk for hybrids with smaller batteries as all else being equal, battery life depends on battery size.

All else being equal, doubling the battery size allows doubling the maximum battery power and doubling the expected lifetime of the battery.

Consider that the battery determines the maximum possible power available to the motor. Just as batteries have a maximum charging speed, they have a maximum discharging speed, which determines the maximum possible vehicle power.

The Battery Of An EV Is Many Ways the Equivalent to the Engine of Combustion Vehicles.

Battery lifetime distance potential, or the total distance a vehicle can be driven using battery power during the lifetime of the battery, is a very often overlooked critical factor for an efficient hybrid.

The more use you can make of battery power, the greater the potential for increased efficiency since most of the factors that allow hybrids to make efficiency gains over regular gasoline vehicles depend on the charging the battery and then reusing that stored charge for energy.

Avoiding the battery needing early replacement requires avoiding too driving too often on battery power alone. If a hybrid has a battery 50% the size of a similar pure EV, then by ensuring 50% of the time driving 50% ICE battery life can be comparable to the pure EV. Even many plug-in hybrids have batteries more like between 20% and 33% of the capacity of an equivalent EV, which means unless something else changes, then should not be driven more than 20% to 33% of the time on battery power! Toyota “ICE first” hybrid drivetrains typically have more like 2kWh or perhaps 1/30th of capacity of comparable full EVs, so unless something else changes, should be restricted to 1/30th of the time on battery power!

There are other changes that can be made. Toyota uses NiMH batteries which can have around 3x the rated cycles of typical lithium-ion batteries, which can enable a vehicle with 1/30th of the battery power to be driven up to 1/10 of the time on battery power alone. For larger batteries in plug-in models, Toyota, BYD and other brands use LFP batteries to provide similar or greater cycle numbers than NiMH, with the result that a batter 30% of the size of a comparable EV could be driven almost entirely on battery power and still have similar battery life to a typical full EV.

However, if selecting a hybrid, check battery size and chemistry.

Plug-in hybrid by adding on-board charging alternative to “Self-charging” + gasoline power.

For vehicles that have increased battery size, adding a plug and on on-board charging earns the label “plug-in hybrid”, and this is the step that can provide an alternative source of electricity than it being derived from power generated by the gasoline engine.

Some see vehicle with a large battery and a plug as the requirement for true “dual mode” vehicles that can be driven as either EVs or very efficient hybrid ICE vehicles.

As previously discussed, all hybrids not only have gasoline generated power and can “self-charge”, but even with “self-charging” still all electrical energy still originates from gasoline. While energy recovered through regen braking would in non-hybrid gasoline vehicles simply be converted to heat by friction brakes and then dissipated, that energy is still only the recovery of a percentage energy previously produced from gasoline and used to accelerate the vehicle before then applying braking to slow it down again. Regen can provide the ability to reuse a fraction of the energy previously extracted from gasoline, but ultimately gasoline is still the only source of energy until a plug is added.

Although some vehicles have made some use of solar, adding a “plug” and “on-board charging” is so far the only way to add the potential from significant energy not sourced from fossil fuels.

Adding a plug and on-board charging enables a vehicle to technically be called a “Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle” or PHEV but will not always automatically allow a vehicle to officially be called a PHEV in some countries where criteria must be met to qualify for concessions or rebates that can apply to PHEVs.

Generally being a PHEV is the level of hybrid that also can be counted as a “plug-in vehicle”, in many countries as an “EV”, and in China as “New Energy Vehicle” or NEV. Although many people reserve the label EV for a vehicle that has no fossil fuel engine at all, in some situations “EV” can also include hybrids meet sufficient levels or reduced emissions the term “Battery EV” or BEV used to describe vehicles completely powered by battery power. In China, BEV includes BEV, PHEVs that demonstrate to in actual use run sufficiently often on battery power alone, and in theory also “Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles” or FCEVs although FCEVs these represent less than 0.1% of NEVs in China, hydrogen vehicles are not yet quite as dead in early 2024 China as most other markets and are still in use for a few buses and some other special purpose vehicles.

The ability to source power from both potentially green electricity in addition to from fossil fuels enables cars with a plug to be seen as part efficient gasoline hybrid and part full EV. Just how practical use as an EV on power from the plug is very much determined by the electric only range available from a full battery, which is in turn determined by battery size and efficiency.

Adding plug-capability makes little sense unless the battery is optimised to allow long battery life even if the vehicle is often driven on battery power.

Vehicles with “ICE First” plug-in hybrid drivetrains, such as in the Volvo XC60 PHEV typically have promised 30km to 70km EV range and saw some initial success in Europe but fell from favour because early versions qualified for EV concessions, but:

• Had only very low EV mode battery ranges and limited total battery driven distance potential.
• were often purchased on company leases where vehicle owners had to pay to charge at home but had company paid fuel cards for gasoline.

Then end result was many PHEVs mostly expensive ICE based hybrids with less efficiency that were almost never plugged and failed to justify the tax concessions that made them popular with fleet buyers.

“Ground up” EV architecture: EV Based Hybrids.

A fully EV based hybrid uses an EV-first plug-in powertrain and is built on a dedicated EV platform, while a fully ICE based hybrid uses an ICE-first powertrain and is built on platform designed for an ICE-first powertrain and optionally add plug in capability.

Not every hybrid is fully EV based or fully ICE based. It is also possible to have an “EV first” drivetrain in a vehicle built on an ICE based platform, and while it does seem to be problematic to put an ICE first drivetrain into a pure ICE platform, BMW does have platforms that are themselves a blend of “ground up EV but accommodates building an ICE vehicle” platform, so this last combination may also be somewhat possible.

Many reviews highlight how full battery electric “pure-EVs” or BEVs, when built on vehicle platforms designed with ICE power in mind tend to be inefficient and expensive in comparison with battery electric BEVs build on purposed designed and build EV platforms.

So should a hybrid be built on an ICE platform or an EV platform?

With a hybrid, logically it depends on how “EV” the hybrid seeks to be, and generally, the hybrid needs to at least use an “EV first” drivetrain before benefiting from being on an EV platform.

On the flip side, putting “EV first” hybrid powertrain in vehicles build on ICE platforms does tend to remain expensive and often fails to deliver the efficiency levels that can be expected from an “EV first” hybrid powertrain.

FAQ and Miscellaneous information relevant to hybrids.

Batteries are the key.

Consider that the battery determines the maximum possible power available to the motor. Just as batteries have a maximum charging speed, they have a maximum discharging speed, which determines the maximum possible vehicle power.

The Battery Of An EV Is Many Ways the Equivalent to the Engine of Combustion Vehicles.

Since motors are not a source of power but only a way to transmit power to the wheels, the only two possible sources of power are ICE as a generator, and the battery.

Clearly, moving away from reliance on the ICE, means increasing the importance of the battery, while paying attention to the issue of increased battery use requires a battery that will have sufficient battery life under that increased usage.

Optimum benefit from a hybrid is about getting the greatest efficiency and power delivery from as small as possible ultimate efficiency “peaky” gasoline engine, by using the battery to deliver peak power when more power than average power required and using the small hyper efficient gasoline engine to continue to deliver that average level of power.

What makes a serial or parallel hybrid?

When you analyse the technology, every hybrid can be driven as a serial hybrid or in “serial hybrid mode“, and since all it takes as a planetary gear set and in some cases a clutch to add a parallel mode, most also include a parallel mode.

What varies, is how much driving can be done in serial hybrid/EV mode. Some mild hybrids only drive in serial hybrid mode for a few seconds until the gasoline engine starts up, but many now can also crawl along for a few minutes as traffic jam speed without needing to start the gasoline engine. Most “full” hybrids can now be driven for a few kilometres in EV mode, and plug-in hybrids can be driven for 10s of kilometres in full EV mode, with the goal of enabling a day-to-day commute in full EV mode.

There are even hybrids that can only be driven in serial hybrid mode, and these are the ones called serial hybrids. These fully “serial hybrids” are the last step from ICE to EV and because a hybrid that can only be driven in serial mode requires so much change from building an ICE vehicle, most serial hybrids, like the range extended versions of the 2013 BMW i3 EV are built on an EV platform and are just EVs with an added range extended. But not all. Some serial hybrids, such as 2023 Nissan e-Power X-Trail do seem like the company started with an ICEV added the hybrid parts and removed the ability of the gasoline drive train to power the vehicle making a serial hybrid from an ICEV. The Nissan is rather unusual in that, while like all serial hybrids the result is a vehicle very much like an EV, it cannot be plugged in.

Marketing aside, most people feel prefer to restrict using label “serial hybrid” to vehicles do not even have any mechanical transmission that can transmit mechanical power from the ICE to the wheels and can only ever use the ICE as a generator, but not everyone adheres to that as a rule.

Serial Hybrids or “Serial Hybrid Mode” or “EV Hybrid Mode”.

A serial hybrid is best defined not by what it does, but by what is does not do. Simplistically, a serial hybrid vehicle is a vehicle that never uses the ICE to directly send power to the wheels and only operates in serial hybrid mode. In serial hybrid mode, the sole role of the ICE is to generate electricity.

Confusingly, virtually all hybrids have a serial mode where they can operate as serial hybrid, which means using only electric motors to power the vehicle. The power for the electric motors could come from the battery and/or the ICE being used only as a generator, but only the electric motors power the wheels in serial hybrid mode.

This being driven by the electric motors alone can be called “Serial Hybrid Mode” or “EV Hybrid Mode” by different brands, but is the same, and is a mode that any modern hybrid can utilise.

In this mode, there is no use of a transmission to provide power from the ICE to mechanically power the wheels.

In serial hybrid mode, the vehicle is basically an EV with a gasoline motor added as an onboard generator as an additional way to provide electric power.

As shown in the e-Power graphic, the simplest serial hybrid is a battery powered vehicle, with the addition of an internal combustion engine generator that can charge the battery.

This means that while the power from the generator and the electric power from the battery can combine to send more kilowatts to the motor(s) than either battery or generator can deliver alone, all power gets to the wheels only via electric motor(s).

With serial hybrid vehicles, including the e-Power Nissans and 2025 Ram 1500 Ramcharger Hybrid, the gasoline engine never directly drives the car through a mechanical transmission, but instead the ICE is just a generator providing power to the battery and/or the electric motor.

Since the combustion engine never directly powers the drive wheels, the drive system is purely that of an EV. All power to accelerate, and drive the vehicle is provided by the electric motor(s).

Serial hybrids, as opposed to hybrids with a serial mode, are always driven as an EV. Replace the combustion engine with a bigger battery, and you have a pure EV. In these vehicles, but not using the combustion engine at all, or if the combustion engine fails, you still have a limited range EV.

Parallel Hybrids or Parallel Mode or ICE Mode.

Parallel mode is when a vehicle is driven as a conventional ICE vehicle, with the ICE unit sending power to the wheels via a mechanical transmission, while simultaneously extra power is sent “in parallel” to the wheels by electric motor(s).

In some vehicles the same wheels can simultaneously receive power from both ICE via a transmission and from the electic motors, in others that are sometimes called a through the road hybrid, one set of wheels, usually the front wheels, are driven as a conventional front wheel drive ICE vehicle, and the other set of wheels, usually the rear, are driven by electric motor(s).

While all hybrids have a serial mode or EV mode where there is not mechanical transmission of power to the wheels and use the ICE only for generating electricity, not all hybrids have a parallel or “ICE hybrid mode” where both a mechanical transmission and electric motor(s) simultaneously power the wheels.

When a vehicle has a parallel mode, then it could be called a “serial hybrid” or a “serial parallel hybrid”, depending on what the marketing department decides is best. Most independent observers regard a vehicle as a “parallel hybrid” when full power requires both mechanical power from the ICE by the transmission as well as power from the electric motor(s).

While the term “parallel hybrid” could be used for all vehicles that do have a mechanical transmission able to send power to the wheels, there are some vehicles that have only a very limited mechanical transmission that is not normally in use and these are really best called “serial parallel hybrids” or “EV first hybrids”.

If a hybrid produces full power in parallel mode, then this power can be the addition of the power of the ICE + the power of the eclectic motor(s), but it is a mistake to assume all hybrids work this way as hybrids that are “EV first hybrid” develop full power using electric motors alone, so the power is never more than the power of the electric motor(s), and adding the power of the ICE will over estimate available power.

The best description of an “ICE First parallel hybrid” is: “a vehicle where maximum power results from combining the mechanical power to the wheels from the ICE with electric power to the wheels.

While “ICE First parallel hybrids” do provide a lesser experience when driven as an EV than when on ICE power, they can provide their best driving experience even when the battery is flat, which is not true of EV First hybrids.

Vehicles like the Mitsubishi Outlander has from as early as 2012, and those with the BYD DM-i system, have limited parallel hybrid systems and while they in a limited range of conditions drive on mechanical power from the ICE alone, at almost all times when they need full power, it must come from electric motor(s) alone, and full power is not available using the mechanical transmission. These are ICE first hybrids, but not fully serial hybrids, nor fully parallel hybrids.

Which is best, serial or parallel hybrid, and what is an “EV first” hybrid?

As outlined above in the “technically the seven steps“, the reality is hybrids can’t easily be divided between serial and parallel hybrids in a way that everyone agrees upon, in part because every hybrid has some form of “serial mode”, so all hybrids could claim to be serial hybrids.

While not all hybrids have a parallel mode, the presence of a parallel mode alone doesn’t not make a parallel hybrid, and different people even assign different serial or parallel labels to the same vehicles.

I feel one clear distinction is between hybrids that can provide their full power using only electric motors, which makes them EV first hybrids, while those that require drive from an ICE engine are more ICE first hybrids.

Which is best depends on criteria. I feel it would be hard to argue that there are no criteria under which the Ferrari SF90 PHEV could be seen as the most desirable PHEV, making the case for EV first hybrids.

But on the level of powertrain performance relative to cost, it would also be hard to argue against the BYD Bao 5, and for economy, against the BYD DM-i drivetrains, in both cases making the case for EV first drivetrains.

EV First hybrids do offer a better solution for people who want to be able to drive on electric power alone as much as possible, but otherwise, it really comes down to cost, and the value for money that brand can produce using the technology they choose.

History of BYD plug in hybrids.

Although it was the US congress with the “Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976,” the kick off the push for modern hybrids and Honda who first released a modern hybrid in US, Toyota did launch the Prius in Japan before Honda and has since become synonymous globally with hybrids.

OK, hybrids go back a long way, but Toyota released the Prius in 1997 and is currently the world leader in parallel hybrids, selling around 2.6 million per year, which compares with BYD who launched their first plug-in hybrid in 2008 and had sales in 2023 of approximately 1.5 million plug-in hybrids, which in 2023 were almost entirely DM-i hybrids.

So, BYD are not yet at Toyota volumes, but with their faster growth, they could get there. And, clearly in China, BYD DM-i hybrids are now outselling Toyota conventional hybrids, just as BYD the brand now outsells Toyota overall.

It has been noted on some websites than in China in 2023, DM-i hybrids received the most complaints of all vehicles. This is real, however, there are two important facts to consider when assessing this information. Firstly, he fact that the vehicles in questions were the most popular vehicles on the market in China in 2023, and secondly, that all complaints are not equal, and these were predominantly very minor complaints. Specifically, almost there were almost zero complaints on reliability and almost all complaints were either the vehicles were priced higher than people wanted, and that the ICE would sometimes activate when the driver did not expect to because they wanted to drive as an EV all the time. Modifications have since been made to allow longer periods between it being necessary to activate the ICE to flush fuel lines and ensure all is in working order.

BYD PHEV vehicles have formed the backbone of the taxi industry in Shenzhen for decades now and have proven extremely reliable.

Technical resources on DM-i and Xiaoyun engine.

The DM-i platform utilises the naturally aspirated or turbo charged 1.5 litre Xiaoyun engine, which at the time of introduction, at 43% had the highest thermal efficiency of any internal combustion engine globally. Although more recently possibly eclipsed by a similar engine from Geely with 43.32% efficiency, only these two engines are recorded as reaching levels beyond the 41% thermal efficiency of the Toyota “Dynamic Force” 2.0 litre engine. It should be no surprise that all these super-efficient engines are designed for hybrids, as use in a hybrid frees engine designers from the need for low down torque that produces drivability and the early acceleration needed for performance engines since EV motors totally blitz even the best internal combustion engines for low down torque anyway, allow full focus on efficiency. This is why it is not Mercedes or BMW etc with the crown for most efficient internal combustion engine.

The “World Electric Vehicle Journal” paper is available as here as a pdf, but most material can also be found through these links:

• BYD hits efficiency target with hybrid-specific engine
• BYD presents new hybrid powertrain DM-i

ICE, Hybrid or EV?

The Future of vehicle pricing low to high: EV, Hybrid/PHEV, ICE.

Whether BYD DM hybrids are seen as price competitive with traditional ICE vehicles will depend on brand perceptions. Some will see any competitive pricing as being because “Chinese cars have to be cheaper” and compare prices only to Chinese traditional ICE vehicles which have lower build quality, materials and less equipment, but there is a reason BYD comprehensively outsells those same Chinese traditional ICE vehicles in China.

Analysis suggests that provided battery prices continue to fall, the future of relative prices of EV, hybrids and traditional ICE will become the reverse of what it is today, that is it will become:

1. EVs: The lowest price vehicles.
2. EV first hybrids: A premium over pure EVs allowing refuelling flexibility and range.
3. Traditional ICE vehicles: The highest price, and justifiable only by tradition or political stance.

The first step is easy to predict as ultimately the simplest vehicle to build is a pure EV. Clearly there are less parts, but two things up until around 2022 to 2024 prevented most EVs matching ICE vehicles on price:

• The cost of batteries.
• Wright’s law.

While a more complete explanation of Wright’s law is available here, the principle is that any new technology will cost far more when first introduced than it will when it has achieved significant sales, which means even lower cost new technologies will initially usually be more expensive than more established higher cost technologies. At first the new product will require a unique selling proposition to sell to a specific group of customers despite the high price, and with EVs the initial proposition was “being green” until Tesla added “faster acceleration”, and EV had to sell in sufficient numbers based on these propositions to get the price down to where they could reach larger markets.

It is clear EVs are moving to position 1 on that future price order list. Some BMW models EV models already at the same price as their ICEV version, which highlights the direction of relative pricing. Then consider EVs like the BYD Seagull, and it’s clear that EVs can already even be great value at lower prices.

What is not as obvious is how hybrids get to position 2. With hybrids, the strategy was remarkably similar. The Prius was economical but boring and with low performance, the first Lexus high end hybrid had higher performance but was not that economical. But despite the Wright’s law, early hybrids were not extremely expensive.

While it is clear and well documented that an EV requires less parts that a traditional ICE vehicle, it seems counterintuitive that a hybrid can actually be simpler and lower cost than an ICE vehicle, yet it turns out that hybrids, and particularly ICE first hybrids can also be simpler.

How? In overview, the reasons are:

• Any ICE vehicle already has two electric motor/generators, the same number required for a hybrid.
• Making an ICE engine smaller creates more savings even when increasing electric motor power.
• Hybrids don’t need a conventional gearbox.

The full details and a more technical view can be found here: “Technically: Seven Different Steps To Levels Of Hybrid.“, but in summary, yes, a hybrid can cost less than a traditional ICE vehicle. The savings are even greater for a 4WD hybrid over an ICE vehicle, but the main point is that the cost is less, not more, and there are also benefits.

BYD dropped making conventional ICE vehicles in 2022, and it makes little sense to drop products if there is still a market. BYD has made several statements declaring DM-i models can compete on price with traditional ICE in China, but there is an EV incentive for qualifying hybrids still in place in China. However, in 2022 when the decision was taken to end regular ICEV production, BYD themselves predicted EVs and pure EVs would exceed 50% of the market during 2024, and incentives were coming to an end.

The volume of production of BYD DM vehicles has grown over 100% since the end of ICEV production, and with the 5th generation DM platform being released, BYD hybrids and better placed to outsell ICEVs than ever before.

Why, or why not, choose a hybrid over a traditional gasoline vehicle?

So far, the biggest reason “why not” choose a hybrid at all, has been price.

Almost everything is becoming a hybrid. Even the Porsche 911 becomes a hybrid in 2025, and F1 cars have been hybrids for years now. But neither of these hybrids is really about saving money.

Price is still a genuine issue, and while BYD has introduced “EV first” hybrids with improved performance and economy for a lower price than a similarly equipped traditional ICE vehicle, BYD is only one brand, and outside China, not a very established brand.

Given that you don’t need to plug-in to get better fuel economy and can drive on gasoline all the time, the only possible objection remaining is whether these the retain the feel of a traditional ICE vehicle.

Some argue that a hybrid can’t be a true sports car, but while the choice of true sports car hybrids is limited, as even Ferrari makes a plug-in hybrid, there is a very strong argument you can get all the feel of a sports car in a hybrid, as long as people sell them.

There is of course tradition, but at that exotic sportscar end of the market, even the hybrid Ferrari can’t match a 2024 Porsche fully electric Taycan around the Nürburgring, so if you want pure performance a pure EV such as even the BYD U9 will win every time, but there is still a place for the special feel of the admittedly slower ICE sportscars.

The EV based hybrid vs ICE based hybrid?

If choosing a hybrid, why choose an EV based hybrid over a traditional ICE based hybrid?

Power, price and efficiency. Currently EV based hybrids completely outsell ICE based hybrids because of those three factors, and if that is repeated internationally, then EV based hybrids will be what most people choose in the future. Although usually providing less performance, ICE based hybrids can still sound and feel more like a traditional ICE vehicle, so it can depend on priorities.

Why choose an EV over a hybrid or EV based hybrid?

Full reveal: I drive an EV. I have not regularly driven an ICE since 2022 and imagine never having to visit a “gas-pump” ever again.

Over than avoiding every again refuelling gasoline, the other reason to buy an EV is, strangely enough, price!

BYD makes a similar number of EVs and EV based hybrids priced from around US$10,000-dollar Seagull to the US$238,000-dollar U9. That the most expensive vehicle is an EV is less of a surprise to many than that the least expensive vehicle is an EV.

The BYD Seagull (aka Dolphin Mini), provides amazing value for money that ICE vehicles cannot match, and increasingly there will be EVs available at a lower price than equivalent ICE vehicles. While the Seagull provides better quality space and equipment then ICE vehicles near the price point, it still lacks the range, which, for people who need the range, can be the reason to spend more on an ICE or hybrid.

Road trips: Why choose an EV based hybrid over EV?

With an EV on road trips, the low-cost, or even free, charging options that make EV such low-cost motoring are no longer available. Even if the charge costs are the same, EVs can at freeway speeds can use up to double the kilowatts per kilometre they use in urban/local driving and recharging on the highway can be comparable to gasoline prices for an ICE vehicle. With promised highway consumption of around 3km/litre, an EV based hybrid can cost less than an EV for highway driving.

Plus, I think of my most recent EV road trip, and I have to admit a DM-i EV would have made sense for that trip. During this trip there were 4 DC charging stops, and for each one there was the threat of busy or broken chargers. Whilst as an actual EV owner there is no “range anxiety”, there is some degree of “charger anxiety”. During this recent road trip, there was no “waiting for charging”, the vehicle did not need charging at every stop, and on stops when the EV was plugged in, there was no waiting for charging as when we were ready to leave, we left. These was a wait of 5 minutes for someone to finish charging on one occasion, but at that same location there was also quite a queue for the gasoline pumps. We did waste time at one stop because the chargers were broken, but as it was not essential to charge, we just took our rest stop, and then left the charging for our next rest stop.

But not all trips are like that.

While a queue at a gasoline pump can take 15 minutes, a queue at a charger could take and hour! For trips to remote locations, while there is in reality always electricity, at the extreme it could mean charging at home wall sockets speeds that can take a day to get a full charge.

At the other extreme, a 5th generation DM-i hybrid with nearly 2,000 kilometres of range would mean being able to drive practically all day and never needing to refuel or recharge.

Then there is the pickup to consider. In the US there is the Rivian R1T, the Ford F150 Lightning, and now the Cybertruck as major contenders. But they are all very expensive, lack the range required for off road trekking, long distance haulage or towing and none of them is yet on sale in Australia. With the current cost of batteries, if a PHEV could function as an EV when used by a tradesman in an urban environment and have the range to take long distance travel to remote locations, off roading and long-distance towing….

The case for EVs over even EV based hybrids: the dream is not yet real.

It can sound perfect. Drive on electricity whenever charging is available, and longer distance highway speed driving can provide even lower cost driving than with an EV and total freedom as to if and when to take any breaks.

Except with all versions of DM-i seen so far, even in around town urban driving, the gasoline generator can be needed in some situations. There may be very little gasoline usage, but it so far it seems zero gasoline usage is not possible.

Plus, while worry free pure electric motoring can be possible in scenarios where charging is available at stopping points for those who take a rest stop every two hours on long trips, no DM-i vehicle so far has sufficient range for two hours of pure electric highway driving.

The dream would be never needing the gasoline engine when charging is available, but that dream is not yet real. Plus, there is the addition of a gasoline engine to the parts that must be maintained.

Market prospects for Sealion 6 and BYD Ute / Pickup in Australia.

My first thought is that I personally would not be interested in a PHEV. For the next SUV from BYD, I would prefer the Song L. Or the Sea Lion 07, or the Denza N7. They have a wealth of really appealing SUVs, but for me the Sealion 6 is not one of them, and it is just not going to win over many EV buyers, the Sealion 6.

In Australia in 2023 EVs reached a market share for new car purchases of around 10%, fairly in line with my own projections of 11% by February 2024. Even my own market projections for Australia are for EVs to only reach 18% during by early 2025, which means over 80% of people buying a new car in 2024 will still choose some form of ICE vehicle. So while the Song L could do very well in the less the 20% new EV buyer marketplace, and the “Sealion 6” has a more chance of earning sales in the over 80 ICE vehicle marketplace.

A PHEV SUV can provide potential RAV 4 buyers with a far truer EV like alternative, and that is a large market. For me, and there are already true EV SUV alternatives.

But a Ute (pickup)? There is nothing yet, and while there are vehicles stated as “coming”, globally there is no EV pickup that really can do everything a pickup might need to do.

DM-i and the LFP solution to hybrid smaller battery equals short life problem.

Every battery provides a number of cycles before degradation and multiplying the electric range by the number of cycles of “battery life” provides the total distance that can be driven on battery power before battery degradation.

Clearly conventional hybrids, such as the Prius with the current 4.08 Ah lithium-ion battery would expect provide a totally unsatisfactory performance battery life if the vehicle is was driven solely on battery power. The reality is hybrids like the Prius use the battery only to gain more efficiency as an ICE vehicle, and as negligible distances are normally driven on battery power alone, battery life is usually more than satisfactory.

But with even recent plug-in hybrids typically having less than 1/3 of the battery size of a dedicated EV, then if someone does manage to drive solely on battery power, they could then expect only 1/3 the battery life of a modern EV, and for PHEVs of just a few years ago with batteries smaller than the original 20kWh of the first Nissan Leafs, less battery life than those Nissan Leafs.

The solution from BYD is twofold: avoid very small batteries and use LFP chemistry for around 3x the battery life of more common ternary batteries. Still, the 18.3kWh or 26.6kWh of the Song Plus DM-i in China are not that large.

International Price: The big question.

The “Sealion 6” pricing for the DM-i in China was recently updated in February 2024:

The hybrid Song Plus DM-i Glory Edition is offered in five options with starting prices of RMB 129,800 ($18,040), RMB 13,98, RMB 14,98, RMB 15,98, and RMB 16,98 respectively.

The all-electric Song Plus EV Glory Edition is available in four options with starting prices of RMB 149,800, RMB 159,800, RMB 169,800 and RMB 189,800 respectively.

The all-electric Seal has yet to receive the Glory Edition update, with the Seal Champion Edition currently on sale offering five options at a starting price of RMB 189,800, RMB 202,800, RMB 222,800, RMB 239,800 and RMB 279,800.

BYD continues model update with refreshed Song Plus, Seal DM-i

This means the “Seal U DM-i” starts at over 30% less than the Seal right now. Prices do not directly translate for other markets as some fixed factors such as freight will usually mean prices are closer in other markets, but there is room for a significant difference.

For comparison, current pricing on the “Atto 3” or Yuan Plus mean current pricing of the Atto 3 in Australia would have been set at a time when the Atto 3 in China was priced higher than the Sealion 6 is now priced in China:

The new energy vehicle (NEV) maker today launched the Yuan Plus Glory Edition, with a starting price of RMB 119,800 ($16,650), which is RMB 16,000, or 11.78 percent, lower than the RMB 135,800 starting price of the previously available Champion Edition of the model.

BYD launches updated Yuan Plus with 12% lower starting price

Future vehicle pricing low to high: EV, Hybrid/PHEV, ICE.

Analysis suggests that provided battery prices continue to fall, the future of relative prices will become the reverse of today.

Ultimately the simplest vehicle to build is an EV. Clearly there are less parts, but two things up until around 2022 to 2024 prevented any EVs matching ICE vehicles on price:

• The cost of batteries.
• Wright’s law.

While a more complete explanation of Wright’s law is available here, the principle is that any new technology, even if it will ultimately result in cost savings over previous technology, initially will be more expensive. At first the new product will require a unique selling proposition to sell to a specific group of customers despite the high price, and with EVs the initial proposition was “being green” until Tesla added “faster acceleration”, and these had to sell in sufficient numbers to get the price down to reach the main market.

With hybrids, the strategy was remarkably similar. The Prius was economical but boring and with low performance, the first Lexus high end hybrid had higher performance but was not that economical.

While it is clear and well documented that an EV requires less parts that a traditional ICE vehicle, it seems counterintuitive that a hybrid can actually be simpler and lower cost than an ICE vehicle, yet that turns out to be true.

How? Simplified, the reasons are:

• Any ICE vehicle already has two electric motor/generators, the same number required for a hybrid.
• Making an ICE engine smaller creates more savings even when increasing electric motor power.
• Hybrids don’t need a conventional gearbox.

The full details and a more technical view can be found here: “Technically: Seven Different Steps To Levels Of Hybrid.“, but in summary, yes a hybrid can cost less than an ICEV. The savings are even greater for a 4WD hybrid over an ICE vehicle, but the main point is that the cost is less, not more, and there are benefits.

Updates:

• *2024 May 28 : More on Sealion 7.
• 2024 May 19 : More detailed “make a hybrid” and added Sealion pricing.
• 2024 May 15 : Ford Ranger Rival: Faster than Ranger Raptor, Economy of a small diesel Ranger.
• 2024 April 23 th: Updated to second edition, with some fixes and completions.
• 2024 Feb 29 th : Minor update with Seal U pricing and upcoming second-generation Song Plus.
• 2024 January 19 th : Updated with initial conclusion now reached.
• 2024 January 14 th : First draft version as research began.

this page will be updated with links to reviews and more specifications as they become available.