One Finite Planet

Battle for No1 Carmaker: Tracking Tesla and BYD.

Table of Contents

I have already have a page tracking the fall of current leaders Toyota, VW etc, and this page tracks the rise of the new contenders for the worlds number 1 carmaker: Tesla and BYD.

These two are the current EV market leaders, and as EVs gain market share, these two are on trajectories to become no #1 and no #2 car carmakers world wide. But will either of them ever reach true #1?

I have excluded Tesla and BYD from the 'new kids on the block', page tracking the rise of new EV companies as the race between these EV heavyweights warrants its own page.

This page will be periodically updated to track the rise of Tesla and BYD in their race to become king of EVs, and the overall car market.

draft.

The Big Picture: The Factors That Determine Who Will Win?

A time of writing, Tesla is the just ahead as the producer of the most electric vehicles, and is the most valued of all car companies, with Toyota 2nd, VW Group 3rd and BYD 4th. Despite some evidence to the contrary, stock market valuations are not completely crazy, so there are reasons two companies not even in the top 10 producers of cars are two of highest value car companies.

On current trends, as will be explained, and Tesla will take over, and the stock market valuation is the finance industry prediction of the future. How far into the future varies for every stock, plus not everything is perfect, so while the valuations give a hint as to what will happen, and credibility to the idea these companies will be big one day, this s not the complete picture.

It can seem crazy to value Tesla and BYD who both produced less than 1 million vehicles each last year, are up there in value with Toyota and VW who each produced almost 10 million vehicles, until you look at trends.

Toyota and VW sales fell last year, while Tesla and BYD sales rose dramatically. If that keeps happening, Tesla and BYD will one day pass Toyota and VW. In the next year, both Tesla and BYD will pass the rate of sales and production of established companies such as Mercedes, Mazda and Honda who have all been in the top 5 volume producers of vehicles at some point in the past. If the trend continues long enough, they would overtake Toyota and VW.

So the question is, how long will current trends continue, and what are the factors that can limit or alter those trends?

How many cars will be produced and sold in future, is determined by factors including:

  • production capacity.
  • product and market plans.
  • brand recognition.
  • external factors
  • political decisions.
  • technology and market shifts.

Each of these needs to be examined.

Race Starting Positions: Status January 2022.

Tesla.

Tesla is currently, and for the foreseeable future, the worlds most valuable car company. The CEO, Elon Must, has predicted Tesla to achieve within a decade sales that represent around 25% of the world car market, or around the combined volume of both Toyota and the VW group today in early 2022. No car company has ever sole that many cars, and Tesla will need to grow sales and production just of 20x from the current level of just under 1 million cars per year in 2021.

For much of the world, Tesla is synonymous with electric vehicles, and total dominates electric vehicle sales. Teslas lead in brand recognition in the EV (Electric Vehicle) market, is boosted by the fact that the two biggest rivals for Tesla’s 936,172 sales in 2021, BYD at 593,878 and SGMW at 456,123, had no market presence outside China.

Last year [2021]=was the automaker’s best in terms of sales volume, since it was able to sell nearly one million vehicles – 936,172 to be precise – marking an almost 90 percent increase year-over-year compared to 2020 when the company just missed reaching the 500,000 sales mark; that was again a significant improvement over 2019 when 367,500 units were delivered.

The 20-million sales per annum by the early 2030s seems like a big number, but it is what Elon Musk stated on the sidelines of the first Giga Berlin deliveries. 

Inside EVs – Elon Musk: Tesla Aims To Sell 20-Million EVs Annually By The Early 2030s

BYD.

BYD, which built the battery in your ’90s cellphone, now produces more EVs than anyone—and it wants to sell them to you, soon…. Americans associate electric cars with the luxury of Tesla, the unrivaled conveyance of choice for the Sand Hill Road set. But these newly assembled vehicles, part of a family of SUVs called the Tang that retails from about 240,000 yuan ($35,700), are aimed squarely at middle-class drivers in the world’s largest electric vehicle market, China. Their manufacturer, BYD Co., is in turn the No. 1 producer of plug-in vehicles globally, attracting a tiny fraction of the attention of Elon Musk’s company while powering, to a significant extent, a transition to electrified mobility that’s moving faster in China than in any other country.

Bloomberg 2019: The World’s Biggest Electric Vehicle Company Looks Nothing Like Tesla

Although way behind Tesla in valuation, BYD is the already the worlds 4th 3rd most valuable car company, and also on the rise. But valuation is not the only measure of size. Who makes the most cars is another measure, and one where both Tesla and BYD have a long way to go to reach the top. While BYDs 2021 electric vehicle sales were only 63% of Teslas sales, which sounds like a long way behind, up until March 2022, BYD also produced internal combustion vehicles, and total vehicle sales for 2021 over 730,000 which is getting closer at 78% of Teslas sales. Although that figure includes non-EV sales which BYD has since switch to EV production, it does hint at production capacity. BYD spent 2021 transition production to all plug in vehicles, so 730,000 better represents production capacity, and with over 400,000 EVs on back order, production capacity is key for BYD, just as it is for Tesla right now.

In total electric vehicles produced per month, BYD was almost level with Tesla by the end of 2021.

As of the the end of 2021, BYD was in the race, although their numbers still include plug-in hybrids and range extended vehicles. BYD plug-in hybrids have normally have over 125 miles or 200 km of electric only range, so they are more ‘real electric vehicles’ than most, but still, the sales numbers are not all pure EVs like Teslas.

Is BYD a genuine Tesla Competitor?

The claims and ridicule.

Elon Musk laughed at the suggestion BYD was a competitor back in 2011, and there are claims now in 2022, including those made in the video here, that BYD is not a serious competitor to Tesla, and in reality BYD incurs a loss on each electric vehicle. There are key errors in the video, firstly suggesting BYD makes very few BEVs, which sales data clearly disproves, and secondly, the suggestion BYD is unable to make BEVs at a profit. More to the point, you have to wonder why a Tesla site is so specifically targeting BYD to criticise. Even if the video maker is convinced Tesla is far superior to BYD as a company, the fact that he bothers to make a video suggests he does see BYD as a competitor

Does BYD make a loss on BEVs? No.

This is the claim that the worlds 3rd highest valued automobile maker, who produces predominantly BEVs makes a loss on BEVs. The suggestion even hints BEVs from BYD cost per unit more to make than their sale price. Firstly, even if you do make an overall loss on sales of a product line, this does not mean you make a per unit loss. For any automobile maker, there are two types of production:

  1. Show cars and compliance cars, made in strictly limited numbers as there is a per vehicle loss.
  2. Mainstream production cars, where insufficient sales may result in a loss, but every extra sale helps profitability.

Since BYD continually building more factories, ramping up volume and focusing only on BEVs going forward, it is quite clear BEVs from BYD are not show cars or compliance cars made in strictly limited numbers. If they are making a loss on BEVs overall, it is only because they are not yet making enough, a problem Tesla had prior to 2019 when it first made a profit, but it does not mean the business model does not add up when production reaches scale.

So there is significant evidence BYD does not make a per unit loss, but this does not reveal whether the overall activity of making BEVs is yet profitable for BYD. BYD could be a few years behind Tesla in reaching profitability from BEVs, but if so, how is it that BYD is building so many new factories, and still making a profit. Granted, a smaller profit than Tesla, but accounting is complex, and the faster you ramp up, the more it delays profits, and BYD is ramping up faster than Tesla right now.

BYD has been worlds biggest EV maker before.

Initial Trend Comparison.

The clear trend is that lately, BYD(orange) is catching Tesla(red). BYD sales from Q1 2021 to Q4 2021 increased 5x, while Tesla increased 1.6x. Obviously if those growth rates were to be repeated, BYD would be well ahead. However, trends are impacted by the releases of new models, new technologies, and the opening of new factories.

Note that back in early 2018, prior to the Tesla Model 3 having had a full year of sales, BYD was ahead of Tesla, which clearly illustrates that the picture fluctuates on specific events.

Inverstor.com has also taken a look at these two ‘contenders for the crown‘ and come to many of the same conclusions I have, although they not trying to look as far ahead as I am.

Company History Summaries.

Telsa.

Tesla has origins on the General Motors EV1 project dating back to 1996, as the engineers who initially founded Tesla, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning had worked on the EV1 and inspired to make a company to go further. Elon Musk came onboard as an investor and eventually the original founders left, but logically it would likely have also played a role in the original ‘stage 1’ master plan.

Tesla began exports around one year after production of the roadster started, and has long had a global presence.

BYD.

BYD started back in 1995 with idea of making electric cars, but with the plan that first, they needed to make batteries. Then they needed to learn how to make cars so they purchased in a car maker in 2003 and took over production of those cars, gradually adding electrification to the range.

BYD has long had a global presence in batteries and electric busses, but by 2021 had only very small projects testing the waters with consumer vehicles. For BYD 2022, will be the start of getting their name known by consumers.

Production & Outlook 2022.

Tesla Production.

Cars ( and eventually trucks and semi-trucks).

Tesla started 2022 with 3 operating factories:

  • Operating Jan 2022.
  • Opening/Opened 2022
    • Giga Texas, listed as 2nd largest building in the world by volume, and an area of 929,000 m2.
    • Giga Berlin, with production capacity to reach 500,000 / year.
  • Beyond 2022:

With two new factories operating in 2022, just maybe production could reach 2 million vehicles per year in 2022, even though it is the first year of operation for the new factories. It would seem to be a challenge, and is well beyond analyst expectations of 1.3 to 1.4 million , but the capacity of Texas is not clear, and is expected to be significantly beyond that of previous factories.

For Tesla, all indications are that it will be production, not sales, that limit car ‘sales’ for 2022. There are over 1 million pre-orders for the Cybertruck alone, although this is global data, and there are many steps to shipping the Cybertruck globally.

Batteries.

Despite the existence of Tesla home batteries, and Tesla battery technology, Telsa makes battery packs, but no the cells of the batteries. For the cells, Tesla works with Panasonic, now globally 4th largest battery supplier) and now also CATL, the worlds largest battery supplier and even to a lesser extent, BYD, the worlds 3rd largest battery company.

This means there are additional factories by battery partners Panasonic and CATL just to supply batteries to Tesla.

While Tesla has taken steps to secure lithium and cobalt, nickel and lithium supplies, Elon Musk has declared LFP batteries which do not require either nickel or cobalt, are ‘the future‘, has started a shift, and has already moved powerwalls and some cars to LFP, reducing the need for the most problematic ingredients.

BYD Production.

Cars ( and busses, trucks and semi-trucks)

BYD has had factories for some time, but many were originally producing internal combustion engines as Tesla Freemont was for GM.

BYD City Shenzhen
  • Car production operating Jan 1 2002:
    • Shenzhen – more a city than a factory.
    • Xi’an
    • Changsha
    • Changzhou
  • Car production opening/Opened 2022
    • Fuzhou, started April 15, 2022 with 600,000/year capability
    • Hefei, scheduled June 2022 (no numbers yet, but it is HUGE)
  • Car production date not known, but already under construction
    • Zhengzhou
    • Jinan
    • Xiangyang 
    • Thailand
  • Buses/Trucks
    • Shenzhen/USA/Canada/Hungary/Brazil etc

Batteries.

BYD was one of the first to bet big on LFP batteries. BYD is likely to be the only automaker who is more vertically integrated than even Tesla. BYD not only make their own batteries and are currently 3rd, but soon to be 2nd biggest battery maker in the world, they also have an integrated circuits division which makes the ICs the need in their products.

I will update this section to list battery production facilities in an upcoming edition.

The company currently has 19 completed and planned battery production bases, with a combined capacity of 421 GWh, including five new projects announced this year, according to previous public information.

Last year, a total of eight battery projects were added or expanded, located in Wuhan, Hubei; Wuhu, Anhui; Chuzhou, Anhui; Xi’an, Shaanxi; Jinan, Shandong; Shaoxing, Zhejiang; Bishan, Chongqing and Fuzhou, Jiangxi. The combined capacity of these plants will exceed 154 GWh when they are all in operation.

Previously, BYD had six battery plants in Xining, Qinghai; Bengbu, Anhui; Ningxiang, Changsha; Guiyang, Guizhou; Pingshan, Shenzhen; and Huizhou, Guangdong, with a combined capacity of 95 GWh.

BYD plans to build $2.2 billion power battery project in Guangxi

I added the boldface, to highlight the move from 95GWh to 421GWh within two years.

Product and market plans.

Tesla.

Tesla Master Plan Phase 3

One of the bolder and perhaps more surprising targets announced by Tesla CEO Elon Musk last year was the target of reaching a 20 million-vehicle-per-year production capacity before 2030.

Cleantechnica: Feb 2021.

Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI.

Elon Musk on Master Plan Phase 3.

Elon Musk has apparently operated on a master plan, and has announced phase 3 of that plan, is to create massive scale. This makes it clear that growth through scale is the plan. Whilst current sales exceed production capability, it will take more than simply scaling up to achieve a target of 20 million vehicles per year, which no manufacturer has previously achieved.

But first, to recap on phases 1 and 2.

Recap On Master Plan Phases 1 and 2.

Phase 1.

So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

Don’t tell anyone.

Elon Musk blog post.

Elon Musk has spoken at length about the difficulties Tesla faced in getting the Model 3 into production and how close they were to failure, and how with even the smallest outside factor going wrong, the plan would have failed.

However, regardless of whether it required luck or not, or whether the model S is seen as an affordable car and the model 3 as an even more affordable car, stage 1 should be seen as having been completed. Sometimes, business success can be a little like winning the lottery. It may be that the winner is no more capable than other ticket holders, but they did need to have “a ticket”, or the ingredients for success. It does not guarantee repeatable success, but I regard phase 1 as an impressive success story, conducted in the face of adversity, where failure of the plan would mean death of Tesla and financial ruin of Elon Musk.

Phase 2.

Phase 2 was to transform the car ownership experience though self driving technology. Again, Elon Musk was not the first person with the idea. Looking back to the 1980s:

In the 1980s, a vision-guided Mercedes-Benz robotic van, designed by Ernst Dickmanns and his team at the Bundeswehr University Munich in Munich, Germany, achieved a speed of 59.6 miles per hour (95.9 km/h) on streets without traffic.[5] Subsequently, EUREKA conducted the 749,000,000 Prometheus Project on autonomous vehicles from 1987 to 1995.

In the same decade, the DARPA-funded Autonomous Land driven Vehicle (ALV) project in the United States made use of new technologies developed by the University of Maryland, Carnegie Mellon University, the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan, Martin Marietta and SRI International. The ALV project achieved the first road-following demonstration that used lidarcomputer vision and autonomous robotic control to direct a robotic vehicle at speeds of up to 19 miles per hour (31 km/h). In 1987, HRL Laboratories (formerly Hughes Research Labs) demonstrated the first off-road map and sensor-based autonomous navigation on the ALV. The vehicle travelled over 2,000 feet (610 m) at 1.9 miles per hour (3.1 km/h) on complex terrain with steep slopes, ravines, large rocks, and vegetation. By 1989, Carnegie Mellon University had pioneered the use of neural networks to steer and otherwise control autonomous vehicles,[34] forming the basis of contemporary control strategies.

Wikipedia on history of self driving (from 1920s).

Realistically, it is too early to say how significant the Tesla is in the history of self driving cars, despite Teslas labelling of their technology, many see either Waymo, or XPeng, or others as ahead of Tesla.

This phase has faced less pressure, and without yet claiming success, Tesla has risen to be the most valuable car company the world has ever seen, and 6th most valuable company in an era (1st April 2022) when the top companies have risen further than any time previously in history. Plus, Elon Must has risen to be the worlds richest individual. Not only has the pressure been different, but the starting point was not build in part by original company founders. Times are different.

The Tesla Product Portfolio.

Currently, there are four vehicles in production. As the Wikipedia page describes them well, I will not repeat it here.. Each vehicle has been arguably more marketable than the all prior vehicles, but that at least pauses now. The new roadster is pure halo car, and while the Cybertruck could potentially one day become the top selling vehicle in the USA, it is not sufficient to catch Toyota, doubt about reach double their global sales.

The portfolio will soon need the ‘model 2’ or “$25,000” car. In fact to achieve the final goals, it will need a range of them, and even if there as many models as Toyota and Lexus have today, they will need to on average sell at around twice the numbers each model of Toyota and Lexus do today.

BYD Product and Market Plans.

Market Plans

We have less insight into the thoughts of BYD founder Wang Chuanfu, but some things are clear anyway.

BYD was waiting until the right time to pivot away from internal combustion vehicles, with production formally ending in March 2022. The shift was dramatic during 2021, with the brand becoming ‘new energy’ only from around 50/50 in just one year. However, it is still not a ‘pure EV’ brand, with several plug in hybrid still in the mix, but they can be expected to be almost gone by the end of 2022.

The range for export is all based on the BYD platform 3.0 and beyond, all made with the BYD blade LFP batteries. BYD now has to transition from a Chinese market consumer brand, to a global market consumer brand. So far the biggest pushes seem to be in left traffic countries (wheel on the right), but this is likely test markets for quickly gaining strong positions before the bigger global push a year or two later.

Plugin-Hybrids.

BYD, having stopped selling pure internal combustion engine vehicles, sells a number of plug-in hybrids in China, however there is no plan for export and production will eventually transition to pure EVs only. However, BYD hybrids are quite different. Firstly, the incorporate the world’s most efficient gasoline engine, even more efficient than the previous record holder from Toyota, and secondly they have sufficient battery power for a range of over 125 miles (200 km), which is greater than the range of Honda and Mazda pure EVs at the time of writing (March 2022). Thirdly, they supply other brans with the technology.

These plug hybrids deliver strong acceleration on electric power alone, and one key configuration is the rage extender where all power to the wheels comes from electric motors. As cars with this range and electric power incorporate all of the components of a ‘pure’ electric car, BYD will likely switch their production to pure EV as soon as the market is ready.

BYD Products.

Again there is a Wikipedia page, but this time it is less helpful in putting things in perspective. Products are:

  • International Products:
    • Dolphin/EA1/Atto 2(Q4 2021): The ‘Corolla’ competitor.
    • Yuan Plus/Atto 3(Q1 2022): An improved, but lower priced Chevrolet Bolt EUV
    • Seal (Q3 2022): Model 3 competitor
    • Han: Model S competitor
    • Tang: 3 row SUV
  • Announced:
  • Other products sold outside China:
    • E6 taxi/people mover
    • Van
  • China only products
    • Several, and I will add names over time, but if not listed above, it is most likely legacy, and never getting outside of China in significant numbers.
Dolphin/EA1/Atto 2

In addition to in China, exported to in Thailand and announced for other markets including Australia, and ideal for Europe, this could be one of the lowest cost mainstream EVs for many many markets. I think of it as a Corolla, the car that passed the Beetle for best seller, equivalent for a reason

Yuan Plus Atto 3

The first ‘global car’ for BYD, exported to Australia, Macau, Nepal, Singapore and other locations with a full page on this vehicle coming soon.

Seal.

Much hyped, but although not yet released ‘vapourware’ so far, this is the vehicle which could provide a tough competitor for the model 3.

Han

By the measuring tape, the Han is a large sedan, and more of a Model S rival than a Model 3 rival. It’s 196 inches long, 75.2 inches wide, and 59.9 inches high, and rides on a long 115.0-inch wheelbase. The curb weight starts at about 4,400 pounds, which makes it somewhat lighter than the Model S.

Green Car Reports.

At 3.9s 0-100km/m (0-62mph) the Han is no match for the model S in performance, and although now updated for 715km range (440 miles) from the previous 610km, expect more like 350km on an EPA range test, so still not quite a match for the range of the Model S.

As of early 2022, this is the BYD flagship sedan, as used to as transport for Prince Harry in the Bahamas (see below).

Tang
2022 Tang.

The Recently updated ‘Dynasty’ series Tang model, is on sale in Norway and coming to other European markets. In China, also available as a domestic only plug-in hybrid,.

The 2022 Tang EV is 4900 mm, 1950 mm, and 1725 mm in length, width and height, and its wheelbase is 2820 mm.

In terms of power, the model has two motors with a maximum power of 180kW + 200kW, and it takes 4.4 seconds to accelerate from 0 to 100km/h.

Pandaily.

Prince William and Catherine Middleton drove on BYD Tang and later also BYD Han in the Bahamas. It shows the progress the BYD Company has made through the years.

Prince William and Catherine Middleton went to the Bahamas on their third stop on their Caribbean tour. On arriving at the airport, they got a convoy of BYD cars. In the photos, we can see that Princess Catherine sat on a black BYD Tang EV. There is also a black BYD Han on the images. It is fascinating that BYD cars are the official state cars in the Bahamas. These BYD cars have a crown sign on a number plate.

CarnewsChina.

brand recognition.

Tesla.

Currently, the global car market is around 80 million vehicles per year and not growing. Even if some of 20 million Elon targets are Tesla Semi vehicles or something else not in the 80 million, 20 million sales per annum would still be around 1 in 4 vehicles sold worldwide being a Tesla. Could Tesla ever reach that goal? If Elon Musk is serious, then at some point, Tesla would probably need to become, as VW is today, a company that is home to a collection of brands. If fact, I suspect Tesla would need to buy VW.

BYD

While Telsa does not have enough of a range of brand images for the final goal, BYD has only the brand image of being a ‘Chinese brand’. A new ‘premium’ brand will be launched in 2022, but BYD will either need to become more like Geely, or also consider acquisitions. A question arises on the statistics: should BYD vehicles rebadged by Toyota as Toyota products, count as BYD sales?

BYD has the Denza brand, a joint venture with Mercedes parent Daimler, planned to sit above the base BYD brand, and plans for another, yet to be named brand, planned for an even higher tier. Or at least that is the narrative, although I suspect the Denza, 50% owned by Mercedes, will be a China only brand, and the new brand will take the expertise from working with Mercedes globally.

Today BYD is still a Chinese brand, and Chinese brands are still are not highly thought of in the west. Even though back in 2011, Musk laughed at BYD, things have changed a lot now and there have been rumours of Tesla buying BYD batteries for some cars, just as Apple has done for iPhones, and there have been suggestions, like Toyota who will have BYD build some models for them, Tesla could also have BYD build their “model 2”. Whether the rumours eventuate or not does not matter, the point being that no-one laughs at the idea. The new Lotus, some BMWs sold globally, Polestars, electric Volvos, and many other prestige vehicles are now made in China, but still the image of Chinese cars not matching others persists. Particularly in China, where although all cars are mode locally, and all but Tesla by local JV companies, foreign brands are still seen as superior.

External Trends

We are in the 3rd year of the Coivid-19 outbreak. Now there is war in the Ukraine which has effectively closed borders between Russia and the west, but may increase trade between Russian, China and even perhaps India. From disease, wars, natural disasters and the global mood on climate change, many things can impact the market.

The EV Market Shifts.

Currently EVs are on the rise almost every, and as demonstrated by Norway, it is possible in a developed country for sales to quickly reach 90% of new vehicles. However, given that cars typically last over 10 years, and even at 100% of the market, it would take over 10 years for almost all cars to be electric.

As the percentage of cars in the market rises, barriers, such as solutions for those who cannot charge at home must be overcome, , and even consumer preferences for sedans, hatches, SUV or pickups can all change.

This section to be further explored over time.

political impacts.

I will record decisions such a US EV incentives and charging projects, tariff and trade agreements in this section.

technology trends and shifts.

Wireless charging, other innovations in charging, plus breakthroughs in battery technology will be recorded here.

Predictions And Tracking.

2022-Q1 (actual)2022-Q22022-Q32022-Q42022-Total
310.053104005501570.05
286.3293754807001841.329

Tesla 2022: 1.4 to 1.8 million vehicles.

Yes, I know I have quoted analysis predicting analyst expectations of 1.3 to 1.4 million vehicles in 2022, but to put it simply those analysts are not doing the maths and are underestimating.

Tesla shipments in Q4 2021 were over 300,000, so continue that rate for 4 quarters, and there are 1.2 million shipments without any growth at all, despite opening two new factories.

In 2021, full year sales were 5x Q1 sales, and that is without opening new factories. Q1 2022 was over 3000 units, so expect 1.5 million cars even without a major contribution from Giga Berlin and Giga Texas. Yes, shanghai Coivd-19 closures could lose 1 month of 1 of the 4 factories, but even 2 months would drop production less than 100,000 units.

  • Q1 2022: Results are in: 310,000.
  • Q2 2022: Things are only getting started on in Berlin and Texas, and there was the disruption in Shanghai, so assume another 310,000
  • Q3 2022: Berlin and Texas should be up to speed, and they added over 30% from Q1 last year: 400,000
  • Q4 2022 Q3 to Q4 last year was a lift of 28% but with the new factories, I am predicting 40%. should see Tesla first ship over 1/2 a million vehicles in one quarter at 560,000

BYD 2022: 1.5 Million to 2.2 Million.

The official target is 2 million vehicles per year for 2022, with an official estimate of 1.5 million. BYD does not give estimates it cannot reach.

Applying the same logic as used with Tesla, full year 2021 was 10x the Q1 sales, so if that was repeated, BYD would sell 2.8 million cars in 2022. BYD is also opening new factories, but some of the lift in EV production last year was from transitioning all internal combustion vehicle production to EV production.

Even though it is most likely BYD will produce more ‘EVs’ than Tesla in 2022, the BYD number will still include some plug in hybrids, so they may not exceed Tesla in ‘pure EV’ or BEV (battery EV) sales.

In fact, 2023 will likely be a bigger year for BYD, as it is only then that global exports will have a significant impact on sales. Exports will likely remain under 50,000 for the 2022.

  • Q1 2022: Results are in: 286,000.
  • Q2 2022: Things the new, easier to produce products are ramping up as is the new factory in Fuzhou (150k per quarter), plus the disruption for BYD was in Q1, so 375,000
  • Q3 2022: Fuzhou should be in full operation and Hefei ramping up and while they wont repeat adding over 300% from Q1 last year: 480,000
  • Q4 2022 Q3 to Q4 last year was a lift of 45% which would result in 700,000 cars for Q4, and even with this number it falls short of the annual target BYD have discussed, so even though it is quite mazing, I think with those two new factories, it is reasonable.

Tesla 2030: 8 to 12 million vehicles.

Tesla may focus more, and earn more revenues, from robots than from automobiles by 2030.

Currently, the global car market is around 80 million vehicles per year and not growing. Even if some of Elon Muss’s targets 20 million per year are Tesla Semi vehicles or something else not in the 80 million, 20 million sales per annum would still be around 1 in 4 vehicles sold worldwide being a Tesla. Could Tesla ever reach that goal? If Elon Musk is serious, then at some point, Tesla would probably need to become, as VW is today, a company that is home to a collection of brands. If fact, I suspect Tesla would need to buy VW.

Tesla dominates EVs when BYD is not around:

BYD 2030: 8 to 15 Million Vehicles.

While BYD I am confident BYD will pass Teslas in EVs again within the next few years, it is less clear who will win in the end. I do think BYD, but to reach their full potential, not only do they also need far more brands, they also need a change in the mood of the leadership of China.

Tracking.

I will add links to stories on the race here.

Conclusion

Both Tesla and BYD will have a huge impact on the world over then next few years, but I think it is BYD who will bring about the greatest change, and create the most surprises as a so far relatively unknown brand.

Competition has to be a good thing, and can help everyone rise to new heights, but the world would be more balanced if the big push came from a country that was not already the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. At least BYD is not a state owned enterprise, and in fact has substantial foreign ownership.

Both brands have 2022 annual sales of at least approaching 2 million units per year, but more significantly will end the year with annualised sales that will put them into the top 10 globally. Q4 sales of over 1/2 million for Tesla and close to 3/4 of a million for BYD. If that quarter was simply repeated throughout 2023, Tesla and BYD together would still represent less than 7% of cars shipped, which is well short of where electric vehicles would be if they could be produced in time.

Topics: