The plot of Trump and the ballot Eaters: an end to elections.
2021 perspective: The nightmare is that just as Voldemort returned in the novels through the aide of key followers, that Trump could return to power following the 2024 election with the aid of key followers who have the position and power to overrule the voters in key states. This is an exploration of just how much of that plot is possible. Much of this hinges on how successful Trump can be at gaining loyal followers.
2024 updated perspective: In 2021, it was not yet even certain Trump would run again, doubt about again win nomination, and as of March 2024, even be ahead of the Democrats in the polls. Trump has also now made it clear that participation in another “Jan 6th” would go unpunished provided it this time succeeds. Trump is declaring if he does not win, it could be the end of elections in the USA, and even if there is no need for a repeat of Jan 6th, the very meaning of democracy would change under another Trump presidency. Trump continues to go deeper into his own delusions and is more extreme now than in 2021.
Why draw inspiration from a fictional story? There is a famous theme from the Harry Potter books about “you only see what you want to see”. The same goes with interpreting the novels, and at a certain level, we only see what we want to see. It is not that these books provide great insight into Trump, but they can provide a starting point for thinking about why people following a leader like Trump.
The behaviour and loyalty of “death eaters” in Harry Potter seems credible when compared to Republican falling into line with even the most extreme policies of Donald Trump. Already, a large percentage of US voters believe Trump won in 2020 and is thus the current rightful president, and with all the progress since 2020, Trump is not relying on winning enough votes for him to be seen as the president after the 2024 election and has an agenda for his next term that is a frightening as any fiction.
The Trump 2024 Strategy: It’s not just about votes.
If Trump Believes His Own Stolen Story, It Is Not More Votes He Needs.
And I was told by the real pollsters — we do have real pollsters — they know that we were going to do well and we were going to win. What I was told, if I went from 63 million, which we had four years ago, to 66 million, there was no chance of losing. Well, we didn’t go to 66, we went to 75 million, and they say we lost. We didn’t lose.
And by the way, does anybody believe that Joe had 80 million votes? Does anybody believe that? He had 80 million computer votes. It’s a disgrace. There’s never been anything like that. You could take third-world countries. Just take a look. Take third-world countries. Their elections are more honest than what we’ve been going through in this country. It’s a disgrace. It’s a disgrace.
Donald Trump: Trump’s Jan. 6 Speech
It is my belief that Donald Trump comes believe the things he says. While in some cases that may only be for the moment, with something like this story how how the election was stolen, I believe he has become genuinely fully convinced by his story. Perhaps you agree with Trump that the election was stolen, or disagree with me that Trump himself believes this story. But at least imagine for a moment, what if Trump does believe that he won sufficient votes to have been declared president, but ‘fake’ votes for Joe Biden robbed him of victory. If you believe that narrative, what do you need to change before the next election? Not votes, because in that narrative, he already has enough votes, but no matter how many votes he get, ‘fake’ votes can exceed the votes he receives.
Trumps Goal: “Ballot Eater” Officials Who Will Ignore Votes Trump Believes ‘Fake’.
In the 2020 election, just 4 key states with Republican Governors cost Trump victory. If those Governors were “ballot eaters”, rather than what Trump would describe as RINOs (Republicans In Name Only), could they have changed the outcome? Obviously, Trump believes they could.
Could A State Withhold or Overrule Electoral Votes?
There are many articles that clearly state the answer is “no”, but this is a somewhat simplistic view. No, the state cannot simply lodge nominate electors other than those chose by the electorate, but there is still a lot a state can do.
A state does play a role in determining which votes were legally cast. This does leave room for manipulating the result that is accepted, or even having the state not submit their college votes before the deadline.
There were pages discussing the option already in late 2021:
- ‘Not-so-secret weapon’: Critics warn Trump, GOP planning 2024 Electoral College heist
- Terrifying for American Democracy: Is Trump planning for a 2024-election coup?
- REPORT: Trump is Systematically Laying The Groundwork to Steal the 2024 Election
- Journalist says Republicans now have more reliable ways to overturn election results
- Why 2024 is going to be *way* worse than 2020
- Trump’s back. Here’s what his re-entry means for 2024
- Column: Trump couldn’t steal the election in 2020. His allies are laying the groundwork to try again
- We Underestimated Trump Before. It Didn’t Go Well
- Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Steal Michigan in 2024
- Donald Trump’s election fraud claims are turning into a policy push that could be devastating for Democrats
- The Outdated Law that Republicans Could Use to Upend the Electoral College Vote Next Time
- The Republican plot to steal the 2024 election
- Trump Is Planning a Much More Respectable Coup Next Time
There is a lot to digest, but the quick summary is there are a variety of very real threats.
2024 Update: Jan 6th rioters from felons to heroes and beyond.
It went from Trump himself saying “Like all Americans, I am outraged by the violence, lawlessness and mayhem. America is and must always be a nation of law and order. The demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol have defiled the seat of American democracy. To those who engaged in the acts of violence and destruction, you do not represent our country. And to those who broke the law, you will pay” to Marjorie Taylor Greene saying, “And I have no problem saying that these January 6 defendants are being treated like political prisoners of war”. Paul Gosar at the Jan 6th hearing declared “The DOJ is harassing peaceful patriots across the country.” Tucker Carlson: “They are not destroying the Capitol. They obviously revere the Capitol. They are there because they believe the election was stolen from them. They believe in the system.”
On release from prison convicted Jan 6th rioter was gifted an American flag by Congressman Louie Gohmert following conviction:
“Dr. Gold is the definition of what a political prisoner looks like – something I never thought I’d see here in the United States of America,” Gohmert said.
CNN Sept 2022: Republican congressman presents convicted January 6 rioter with flag flown over US Capitol after her release from prison
Donald Trump changed from the delivering that original speech to labelling rioters as criminals to declaring he will get “these heroes” out of prison. Trump says “You see the spirit from the hostages. And that is what they are it is hostages. The first day we get into office, we are going to work with the people to treat those unbelievable patriots- and they were unbelievable patriots and are. Release the J6 hostages, Joe. Release them, Joe. You can do it real easy, Joe.”
Yes, the initial speech declaring the rioters to be criminals was likely not how Trump actually felt at the time, but he did feel at that time he could not say the words he is saying now. A lot has changed.
It is now clear to any potential rioter looking to block the appointment of a president other than Trump, you will only be punished if you fail, and if you succeed, you will be declared a patriot and a hero.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A cocktail of propaganda, conspiracy theory and disinformation — of the kind intoxicating to the masses in the darkest turns of history — is fueling straight-up delusion over the agonies of Jan. 6.
Hate is “love.” Violence is “peace.” The pro-Donald Trump attackers are patriots.
Months after the then-president’s supporters stormed the Capitol that winter day, Trump and his acolytes are taking this revisionism to a new and dangerous place — one of martyrs and warlike heroes, and of revenge. It’s a place where cries of “blue lives matter” have transformed into shouts of “f— the blue.”
The fact inversion about the siege is the latest in Trump’s contorted oeuvre of the “big lie” compendium, the most specious of which is that the election was stolen from him, when it was not.
In Trump’s Jan. 6 recast, attackers become martyrs, heroes
2 September 2022 – Former president Donald Trump said he would issue full pardons and a government apology to rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and violently attacked law enforcement to stop the democratic transfer of power.
Washington Post Sept 2022: Trump vows pardons, government apology to Capitol rioters if elected
Bloodbath: economic future or dog whistle on violence?
As discussed in the ABC news excerpt above, Trump, announced in a speech he would introduce a 100% tariff on cars coming from China in Chinese, as if he did not, it would be bloodbath. Even in China, people have said the will be an automobile price war that could be a “bloodbath”, so my initial reaction was to assume Trump really was referring to an economic bloodbath, which may have been even been in a speech prepared for him. But then when you listen to Trumps actual words, and those at 1:18 in the above video: “Please rise for the horribly and unfairly treated Jan 6th hostages”, whom Trump salutes as the national anthem is played, clearly endorsing acts of violence. Then you consider Trumps actual full words, and yes, the word bloodbath may have been in the speech to describe an economic bloodbath in the automobile industry, but then Trump appeared respond to the word and break from talking about automobile in order to expand on a more significant bloodbath that will see the end of elections in the USA. It does sound like it is no longer about an economic bloodbath:
Trump’s actual full words: (a blood bath and end to elections in “this country”)
We are going to put a 100% tariff on every single car that comes across the line and you’re not going to be able to sell those cars. If I get elected. Now if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be bloodbath for the whole… that’s going to be least of it, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the country, that’ll be the least of it. If this election, if this election isn’t won, I’m not sure that you’ll ever have another election in this country, does that make sense. I don’t think you’re going to have another election in this country if we don’t win this election. I don’t think you’re going to have another election, certainly not an election that’s meaningful and better get out or we better … I actually say that the date …remember this … November 5th I believe it’s going to be the most important date in the history of our country…I believe that.
Donald Trump Ohio, March 2024.
Calls for violence?
Trump posts video that shows image of Biden tied up in the back of a truck
Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric has been effective for him so far but poses real danger
Ballot Eaters vs Death Eaters: Swearing to support ballot denial.
As the YouTube video to the right demonstrates, I am certainly not the first person to see similarities between Trump and Voldemort. In my case, the focus is on how and why they attract followers, or “ballot eaters”, the Trump equivalent to “death eaters”, and the consequences of a possible return.
Why do followers pledge allegiance to Voldemort or Trump?
I recently was re-watching the Harry Potter films, having previously read the books, and then watched the movies with a child. Ok, it is fantasy fiction, so it should not be surprising if not all is logical, but I began thinking about the “death eaters”, and wondering their motive for following the “dark lord”.
Ruth, Lindsey Graham is a one-man study in what authoritarians can achieve. This is guy who hated Donald Trump, he ran against Donald Trump, he told the world that Donald Trump is unfit to be president, he criticised Donald Trump on Jan 6th, and now he is talking about the weaponisation of government against Donald Trump!
MSNBC Host speaking with Professor Ruth Ben-Gait.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham just had to go on about
There seems to be a part of human nature to idolise and follow. Why do so many in Britain, and even beyond Britain, “follow” and/or idolise the British Royal family? The entirety of “fandom” is a trove of evidence for how people will “follow” others with very little, and sometimes perhaps no logical reason.
Why “Death Eaters”?
It seems there is no definitive answer for the name “death eater“. On first reading the books, I assumed that followers in some way avoided their own deaths in some deal with evil, or by perhaps even some ritual that was deadly to others, but it seems that only Voldemort himself is entitled to cheat death.
There is much discussion on the “death eaters”, what united them, and why they had the name “death eaters”, but it is enough for this exploration to consider they supported and aided their leader in his return and immortality, and they embraced applying death to their enemies.
Why “Ballot Eaters”.
Just as Voldemort avoided death being the end of him, Trump has so far denied his political death and loss in 2020 ending his political future. But the key reason I use the “ballot eaters”, is that Trump requires his followers declare their true allegiance to him, by publicly supporting the claim of election fraud, and willingness to support measure to prevent a repeat. If their enemies look like winning, they will resort to what could be considered a coup.
Loyalty: The Ballot Eaters must swear to support election denial.
It’s that Trump has turned election denialism into a litmus test for aspiring Republican candidates. If you aren’t willing to say you believe — contra all available evidence — that the 2020 election was stolen, then you not only won’t have Trump’s support but may well find him actively working to defeat you when you run for reelection. (See Brian Kemp and David Perdue in Georgia. Also Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.)Trump is working to make a belief that the 2020 election was stolen a central piece of the Republican Party platform. And, again, this isn’t like making abortion or trade a party platform. This is making a rejection of American democracy a major part of what it means to be a Republican.
CNN: A single sentence that perfectly captures the utter madness of the Trump era
It is clear that Chris Cillizia of CNN believes that Trump is collecting followers who at least say they would take steps that could override the ballot box.
On Monday, former Sen. David Perdue officially announced his Republican primary challenge to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. On Wednesday, he pledged allegiance to Donald Trump’s big lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
CNN: How election rejection has become a must for aspiring Republican candidates
Asked whether, had he been governor, he would have signed the certification of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election results, Perdue said he would not have done so.
Can Trump Get Enough ‘Ballot Eaters’?
Original 2021 Perspective.
The first hurdle is getting the republican party to embrace that what happened in 2020 would be rejected in 2024 by the party. Right now, there is far from universal support for this position within the republican party, even though Trumps efforts to promote those who support the position continue.
Trump will possibly run in 2024 if he feels he has party support for his stance than the 2020 election result should not be accepted.
It is one thing to get sufficient supporters to make it happen, but what would become of the many republicans who would still be in place in 2024 who would not stand by and let this happen?
Unless the party becomes so infiltrated by the ‘ballot eaters’ that others longer have a say a president who gains power this way would have support of neither senate nor house as it seems likely many members would cross the floor if necessary.
Log of Successfully Installed ‘Ballot Eaters’ able to impact 2024.
I had planned to add a lot more to this section listing key people appointed to positions able to influence the result but have been too busy. I would appreciate feedback and suggestions.
Possible 2024 election outcomes.
2021 view of potential outcomes.
At this stage, I think Trump gaining power in 2024 by as a result of clear election inference is unlikely, but the consequences are so severe that even the unlikely requires serious reflection and monitoring.
Then there is the more confusing result, where there is efforts to interfere which disturb the counting of votes, but as a result it becomes unclear who would have won without the interference.
View of potential outcomes as of March 2024.
At this time, both Biden and Trump are their respective parties’ presumptive nominees. This means, the 2024 presidential election will be a re-run between Biden and Trump, unless something disrupts the current status quo. Disruption is quite possible. Biden seems more likely to have a physical health episode, although at their age, this is a possibility for both men. Trump seems most likely to have a mental health episode given his accelerating radicalisation, but again, this is possible for both men. Tensions are so high that is also possible either could face an assassination attempt, but it seems highly unlikely that security would fail to prevent this outcome.
Assuming both make it to polling day without major incident:
- Trump could win in a landslide, or at least by sufficient margin that he is declared winner without any disruptive incidents.
- The vote could be sufficiently close that some Trump supporters disrupt the process of the counting of votes to the extent it becomes difficult to determine the actual winner one or more states.
- Biden could be declared the winner, raising the prospect of a far more organised and armed January 6th equivalent, with demonstrators confident they would be pardoned as long as they succeed in blocking the appointment of anyone but Trump.
Currently, option 1 looks the most likely, but in the meantime events that change how people vote are quite possible.
What happens if Trump loses the vote?
Trump has already promised it could be the end of elections in the US if he loses, and by elevating Jan 6th rioters to “heroes and patriot” status who are currently hostages to be set free, Trump is making it very clear that an insurrection to install him in office would, should it succeed, be a passage to high status from all those who participate.
I initially came to the same conclusion as the MSNBC host in the video, “He doesn’t really have to win, he just needs to be in the ballpark because he has primed all his supporters, for a loss. This whole thing is about what happens if he loses. It is one thing if he wins, if he actually gets more electoral college votes, but actually it is as much of a problem if he loses by a bit”. The only change, is that I now realise it doesn’t matter how much he loses by, and as the rule “the bigger the lie the more credible it becomes” would allow him to lose by a lot, and still declare that result to be a lie.
What matters to Trump is that there enough of the population feels he is their president. The whole second amendment right to bear arms” means there are so many guns out there, that the significant proportion of population who own weapons would not be easy, and these very people are Trump’s base.
Is there any hope increasing extremism ending support for Trump?
There has to be. This whole scenario still feels like it really should be just fiction.
Firstly, if the polls turn against Trump for long enough prior to the election, it seems logical it would deflate claims to being the rightful president. Sure, Trump would call it “fake news” and present “alternative facts”, but Congress and Senate, and state level support would surely start to disown him.
Trump could be derailed by health or simply going too far on his journey to extremism for voters to continue following.
The main health risk for Trump seems to be mental health with several experts, as in the video here, observing what they see as accelerating cognitive decline.
Then there are the all-powerful tech giants who have to potential to control so much of public opinion. Who knows what they will do.
But surely, there has to be way to wake from this potential nightmare.
Is there any hope of keeping Trump from office if he loses the vote?
Unless Trump does lose his support base, then even if he loses the election, a very significant percentage of voters will feel he is the rightful president, and him not being appointed would be a gross injustice.
Trump, with his promises to free the Jan 6th “hostages” and proclamations that they are heroes, has made it very clear that in the event of a major insurrection, provide an insurrection succeeds, those behind it would become heroes.
It is estimated there are more civilian held firearms in the USA than there are people. It is very likely that many of those holding most of the most powerful firearms would support Trump and could present as an Army too strong for the FBI or police to stop.
Of course, authorities are also well aware of this and should be very prepared…. provided of course key people in positions of authority in national security do not also see themselves becoming heroes by supporting Trump.
Is there any hope of Trump leaving office if he becomes president.
2:54 / 5:23 ‘If [Trump] gets back into power, he’ll never leave,’ says authoritarian expert Ruth Ben-Ghiat
Trump is threating to jail those who have appeared on committees to even questioned his past actions on the basis that any view contrary to his own is unpatriotic.
He praises Hitler, Chinese leader Xi, Russian President Putin and others because of their absolute power, not in spite of it. He repeats these leaders’ cult of personality propaganda in presenting them as so strong and feared that it is useless to resist them.
Thus Xi, in Trump’s telling, is “strong like granite. He runs 1.4 billion people with an iron hand.” And Putin is a “genius” for “taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking in,” Trump declared days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as though the fierce Ukrainian resistance did not exist.
Opinion: Trump’s praise of dictators tells us all we need to know
Updates:
- 2024 March 30 : Second edition with 2024 update.
- 2021 December 21: Initial version.
