- Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen.
- But Action Is Getting Real.
- So, Where Next?
Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen At COP26.
My notes on COP26 are here, but although with the leaders having left I had thought the sad story over, there has been positive news since then.
COP26 opened to two declarations.
- This is our last chance to avoid 1.5°C temperature rise.
- The doomsday clock is now at 1 minute till midnight, and 1.5°C is that midnight.
For all the enthusiasm of those declarations, there was not sufficient buy in to the doomsday clock argument to produce anything sufficiently significant beyond that at previous conferences which have so far failed to arrest an acceleration in temperature increases.
The last chance to avoid 1.5°C card having been played, what is next? It seems certain 1.5°C will be reached before 2030 when target set by current governments for their successors come into force anyway, but I wonder what the next card will be.
Simply taking the data from this graph and using regression, it should be expected 1.5°C would occur in 2023.
But Action Is Getting Real.
So, Where Next?
I will also maintain this page to keep a list of post COP26 announcements, and try to analyze given current trends, at what point it would be possible to limit temperature increases.