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Beyond COP26: 1.5°C Now Ensured, Where Next?

First Published:

cnn: Annual global temperature compared to pre-industrial levels, in degrees Celsius
  • Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen.
  • But Action Is Getting Real.
  • So, Where Next?

Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen At COP26.

My notes on COP26 are here, but although with the leaders having left I had thought the sad story over, there has been positive news since then.

COP26 opened to two declarations.

  • This is our last chance to avoid 1.5°C temperature rise.
  • The doomsday clock is now at 1 minute till midnight, and 1.5°C is that midnight.

For all the enthusiasm of those declarations, there was not sufficient buy in to the doomsday clock argument to produce anything sufficiently significant beyond that at previous conferences which have so far failed to arrest an acceleration in temperature increases.

The last chance to avoid 1.5°C card having been played, what is next? It seems certain 1.5°C will be reached before 2030 when target set by current governments for their successors come into force anyway, but I wonder what the next card will be.

Simply taking the data from this graph and using regression, it should be expected 1.5°C would occur in 2023.


But Action Is Getting Real.

I made notes on COP26, but thought with the leaders having left it seemed over. But no, there is more. So it urns out I need to update things. Stand by..

So, Where Next?

I will also maintain this page to keep a list of post COP26 announcements, and try to analyze given current trends, at what point it would be possible to limit temperature increases.

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Categories

COP27: Climate change action sabotage?

November 16, 2022 November 17, 2022

Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations.

The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost.

This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.

Read More »

Did Al Gore nail it: Is climate change merely inconvenient, or is it an existential threat?

November 16, 2022 November 16, 2022

Claims that +1.5oC warming would be ‘catastrophic’, and that climate change represents an ‘existential threat’ can be quite vague as just what is ‘catastrophic’ or an ‘existential threat’?

This webpaper, seeks to translate ‘catastrophic’ outcomes and ‘existential threats’ into more concrete outcomes.

“We recognise climate change is a serious problem and are committed to net zero by 2050 in order to prevent the disastrous consequences anticipated to occur by around 2026”

Typical government position: Is it ok?

Read More »

The Power struggle in Australia.

November 1, 2022 November 1, 2022

From “the biggest corruption scandal ever” in Brazil, problems in Venezuela, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Iran, to the problems caused by lobbyists against action on climate change, an abundance of fossil fuels is a source of political power, yet rarely force for good, and Australia, with a wealth of coal and gas, is not spared.

The current crisis in Ukraine not only drives up energy prices globally, but it also creates a dilemma for gas producing nations.

Read More »

The environmental impact of the transition to EVs and the potential problems.

June 9, 2022 March 6, 2023

There are many claims that EVs result in more emissions than fossil fuelled vehicles. The reality is that even when an EV is powered from a ‘dirty’ grid, it is clear that driving an EV creates less emissions. What is less clear, is whether the emission reduction when driven justifies the emissions that are created when building the EV?

Buying an EV is better for the environment in the long term than buying an ICE vehicle but can be worse for the environment than not buying any new vehicle at all. The key finding is that while it is best to stop buying so many new ICE vehicles ASAP, there should be no rush to replace existing ICE vehicles with EVs, and instead allow existing vehicles the around two decades until their normal scrap date.

Read More »

Big Oil, AKA Big Fossil: How real, and what about ‘big climate’?

June 7, 2022 February 27, 2023

Yes, big oil with value at over US$7 billion per day in revenue at stake clearly has a vested interest in arguing against climate change and downplaying risks, but on the other hand, aren’t there also vested interests exaggerating and overstating the risks of climate change? Effectively could ‘big renewables’, ‘big science‘ or ‘big climate’, be out lobbying and out promoting ‘big fossil‘?

Is this really a balanced fight, or is it more like the might of ‘big tobacco’ vs ‘whistle blower medical research’ all over again?

This is a look at the financial might on each side of the argument, and the respective motives for each side to overstate their case.

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The electrical grid, V2G and EV Home Charging: Missing an opportunity for the planet.

February 26, 2022 March 15, 2022

Move to renewables for energy, and electricity for transport, and we solve the climate problem.

But renewables require storage, and uptake of EVs requires home charging, and there is a cost to both.

But what if electric vehicles could solve the “green power grid” problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality, and reduce costs? It turns out this dream scenario is definitely possible but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem is solved.

Read More »