One Finite Planet

One Finite Planet

Analysis of disruptions as humanity reaches the cusp of outgrowing our planet.

Beyond COP26: 1.5°C Now Ensured, Where Next?

Date Published:

cnn: Annual global temperature compared to pre-industrial levels, in degrees Celsius
  • Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen.
  • But Action Is Getting Real.
  • So, Where Next?

Preventing 1.5°C Was Never Going To Happen At COP26.

My notes on COP26 are here, but although with the leaders having left I had thought the sad story over, there has been positive news since then.

COP26 opened to two declarations.

  • This is our last chance to avoid 1.5°C temperature rise.
  • The doomsday clock is now at 1 minute till midnight, and 1.5°C is that midnight.

For all the enthusiasm of those declarations, there was not sufficient buy in to the doomsday clock argument to produce anything sufficiently significant beyond that at previous conferences which have so far failed to arrest an acceleration in temperature increases.

The last chance to avoid 1.5°C card having been played, what is next? It seems certain 1.5°C will be reached before 2030 when target set by current governments for their successors come into force anyway, but I wonder what the next card will be.

Simply taking the data from this graph and using regression, it should be expected 1.5°C would occur in 2023.


But Action Is Getting Real.

I made notes on COP26, but thought with the leaders having left it seemed over. But no, there is more. So it urns out I need to update things. Stand by..

So, Where Next?

I will also maintain this page to keep a list of post COP26 announcements, and try to analyze given current trends, at what point it would be possible to limit temperature increases.

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COP27: Climate change action sabotage?

November 16, 2022 March 30, 2023

Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations.

The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost.

This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.

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1.5°C by 2026? Already +1.25°C in 2021: What You Are Not Being Told Other Than By Greta Thunberg et al., And Why Not.

November 12, 2021 May 10, 2022

I started out wondering how much temperatures have risen so far, what is the best estimate for when will reach +1.5°C , and how bad is +1.5°C anyway. I expected that finding the first two answers would be easy, but it was not. I found the answers, and why they were not easy to find.

I found that with warming at +1.0 in Paris in 2015, +1.5 logically seemed 50 years away, but in 2021 just 6 years later, we are halfway there at +1.25°C. Much changed during the Covid-19 distraction, and at this rate +1.5°C is set to be here by 2026, not the 2050 predicted at Paris.

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COP26: Were The Deck Chairs Sufficiently Shuffled?

October 29, 2021 March 30, 2023

COP26. It sounds like a police officer who can’t be named. For me it raises questions such as:

  • Why “COP26” and what happened to the first 25 COPs?
  • Are all decisions are made in advance, or is anything really agreed at the conference?
  • Is there more than politicians and fossil fuel companies agreeing spin and token gestures?

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