March 10, 2021 – One Finite Planet

One Finite Planet

Sustainability++ Here for a good time and a longer time.

Topics and Subtopics.

Environmental Damage: The Overpopulation Indicator

March 10, 2021 March 10, 2021

Overpopulation is when there when population cannot exist sustainably without damage to the environment.

Warnings of overpopulation often focus on the eventual starvation that could occur following environmental collapse, rather than the time bomb of declining living conditions for multiple species.

Although such a substantial human population existing unsustainably wreaks havoc on the planet, borrowing from the future though unsustainable agriculture can delay any starvation for decades.

However, as those who profit from overpopulation are sufficiently rich that they can improve their living conditions even as average resources per person declines, the wealthy will keep advocating “population growth is the path to prosperity”. But can we risk becoming an Easter Island story by prioritising population growth to please the billionaires over a return to sustainability?

Environment: On all paths, disruption is imminent & preparation advisable.

Either we disrupt the economic system of a gradual path to transition from fossil fuels, extreme weather disrupts us, or most likely we deal with a mix of both disruptions.

We are living through many trends that simply cannot continue, and while there is competition for which trend reaching a tipping point will cause the greatest disruption over the next decade, the environment and rising CO₂ levels will play a key role by 2030.

While some righteous environmentalists protest for everyone to embrace austerity and simply just stop burning fossil fuels, what is required is replacement infrastructure reliant on fossil fuels. In practice we can't switch off until positive action replaces the need for fossil fuels, which is progressing too slowly in a failing effort to avoid disrupting economies and the establishment.

Reality is both the extreme weather events that further motivate action and those actions themselves will cause disruption, which will both combine with the disruption from AI and the collapse of economic Ponzi schemes.

Population: Our greatest achievement may cause our demise.

Arguably mankind's greatest achievement, the near eradication of infant mortality, has resulted in a population explosion resulting in overpopulation that we prefer not to mention, even though it may yet kill us. Technically we would not die from overpopulation itself, just as people don't really die from "old age", and the real risk is that an already present threat will be exacerbated and become fatal because through our greed we ignore overpopulation.

Unlike old age, the overpopulation risk factor could be avoided or reversed, we may be influenced by economists dependant on Ponzi schemes, the worlds' largest corporations and billionaires who thrive off the resultant increases in inequality into believing that living conditions required by ever increasing population levels benefit everyone and not just those living in mansions.

Population and the Economy

Population Growth Advocacy: Mislead Immigration Support, or Greed & Tribalism?

In Australia, as in many countries, there appears to be almost universal acceptance of perpetual population growth. Population growth is seen as: Desirable because it is the path to economic prosperity. Inevitable. A requirement for supporting refugees. None reflect reality. So why is it, that so few contemplate a finite population target, given we live on a finite planet?

Climate Change: the hot planetary boundary

Did Al Gore nail it: Is climate change merely inconvenient, or is it an existential threat?

Claims that +1.5oC warming would be 'catastrophic', and that climate change represents an 'existential threat' can be quite vague as just what is 'catastrophic' or an 'existential threat'? This webpaper, seeks to translate 'catastrophic' outcomes and 'existential threats' into more concrete outcomes. "We recognise climate change is a serious problem and are committed to net zero by 2050 in order to prevent the disastrous consequences anticipated to occur by around 2026" Typical government position: Is it ok?

Explosion

Population Explosion: What happened to get to 8 Billion people?

Humanity has just experienced a population explosion. Whether you believe we are overpopulated or not, the facts are that we have just had a population explosion. Over two centuries of population peaking at 50x higher than the long term population growth, and peaking at 100x higher during the baby boom. Yet the explosion occurred with women having less babies than ever before, even during the baby boom, and is ending all by itself. So what caused the boom, why a population explosion when birth rates are falling? Will our population grow until we are living life like battery hens?

Pop. Principles

Optimum Population Instinct: nature’s birth control.

Human birth rates are falling at a rate that has some fearing population collapse, but could this be a natural instinctive biological repose to threats of overpopulation, rather than any cause for alarm? This raises the question as to what controls population in other species and, why is overpopulation rare? Would any species just multiply like bacteria in petri dish whenever possible until resources and the ecosystem collapses? Or do species, and even potentially humans, have instinctive mechanisms to constrain population at a more optimum level for long term survival? In practice, resource constraint and predation alone as population controls would for many species would result in repeated huge population swings, so logically, there must be more. Analysing population mechanisms in other species may provide some interesting insights and possible answers to at least a large part of what is happing with birth-rates that will determine whether our future is population is one of: continued growth, collapse, or stability, on a planet where population of all life is not growing.

All 9 planetary boundaries and beyond

Climate is only 1 of 9 planetary boundaries for the path to our rare opportunity.

Despite the common assumption that Earth always will and always has been able to support human life, we live on planet with a dying biosphere that only will soon end this recent brief period of being able to naturally support complex life. Our rare, if not unique, opportunity is to use the window rather than prematurely close it. Assuming climate change is an existential threat and not merely an inconvenience, but CO2 emissions are only 1 of 9 planetary boundaries that must be observed in the to keep the window open. The dawn of the Anthropocene puts risks not only long-term CO2 balance, but the challenge of working within all planetary boundaries and respect that growth within a shrinking biosphere is best put on hold for an age of one finite planet until we can seize the opportunity to escape the constraints of this one currently dying planet and find longer term solutions.

Population Milestones and Predictions

Covid-19

Overpopulation?

Paradox Resolved: Educating women didn’t end the Population Explosion.

Commenced: March 6, 2021 Updated: August 23rd, 2023

2023 August 23 : Updated introduction and synopsis, general clean-up for clarity.

Surprisingly, humanity is at 'peak child' and looks to be heading to population stability and perhaps even 'leaving peak population' and correcting to a lower population. We still have an overpopulated planet, following the population explosion, but the explosion is ending, due to 'births' per woman falling from over 6 prior to 1900, and to around 2.3 in 2021. There is much confusion over why birth-rates are falling, with "education of women" often mistakenly given as an explanation, but no, the Taliban are not onto something, and rather than this or other common coincidence theories, it seems far more likely people are motivated to have the number of children that are appropriate for the situation.

We can’t run out of fossil fuels.

Commenced: April 10, 2021 Updated: August 1st, 2023

2023 August 1: added synopsis and clarifications.

In the 1970s, there were the 'Oil Crises'. Then, and at other times it has been suggested that one key reason for moving to renewables, is that as there is only a finite supply of fossil fuels which will come to an end one day. But when? There is also a mistaken belief that 'peak oil' projections are a result of supplies of fossil fuels becoming exhausted. Whether you are worried oil supplies will run out, or are hoping oil supplies will run out, although prices may rise, they won't run out. In fact, we can't possibly use all fossil fuel.

Righteous environmentalism: an opium for the people concerned about climate.

Commenced: May 20, 2023 Updated: July 27th, 2023

2023 July 27 : Full update of complete page.

There is a real need to protect the environment, and advocacy for the environment is great, but that advocacy can acquire traits of a religion, which at the extreme can even result in far-right eco-terrorism, and more in the mainstream can result in righteous environmentalism and embracing austerity and sacrifices as "an opium". The "righteous environmentalists" preach this austerity as necessary life of the future to an audience that just see the rich becoming even richer. This blindly serves an alternate agenda and needlessly alienates and disenfranchises much of the population. The result is do-nothing politicians to get re-elected instead of motivating voters for real action on climate change and electing leaders who will act.

Optimum population of humans: Ideally, how many people can, or should, the Earth support?

Commenced: April 11, 2023 Updated: July 23rd, 2023

2023 July 23 : Added ecological footprint and sustainability data.

It can seem like the human population can grow forever, but analysis makes it clear growth must stop eventually. The question becomes at what level should it stop? Do we go for the maximum possible people before everything collapses, even if average living standards could be far better with a smaller population? Is it like a chicken farm in an egg farm, where having less chickens is seen as preferable if it means chickens get better living conditions? What population strikes the right balance for humans?

Cost of coal power vs renewables: China expanding coal while the suckers go green?

Commenced: July 19, 2023

If coal fired power can no longer compete on price, then why is China building two new coal power plants per week? Is China somehow able to use coal fired electricity to gain a competitive advantage against western manufacturing which increasingly relies on "clean green" but more expensive energy, with the result that emissions and jobs are simply transferred to China? The current politics of climate agreements encourage rich countries to offshore some emissions to those countries often forced to be more reliant coal and with higher emissions. Could we fix the problem of China syndrome emissions if there was the political will?

Carbon Capture and Storage works for e-Fuels but not for fossil fuels or ‘blue hydrogen’.

Commenced: February 20, 2022 Updated: June 2nd, 2023

2023 June 2nd : Updated and restructured text, fixed dated links and added synopsis.

Full sequestration of carbon is the reverse of burning fossil fuels. Full sequestration does work and is part of the process of producing E-Fuels and the process of photosynthesis in plants. But full sequestration requires at least as much energy as can be extracted from the forms of previously sequestrated carbon that we call "fossil fuels". What can't work, is the illusion of using energy from fossil fuels to reverse the process of burning those same fossil fuels, and then still having a form energy left to sell as a product. Yet that is exactly the "blue hydrogen" proposition.

Base load Solar and Wind: Renewables alone not a substitute for fossil fuels.

Commenced: April 14, 2021 Updated: May 16th, 2023

2023 May 16th: Updated synopsis and added more on "green baseload" strategies.

At least, not a direct substitute. Solar and Wind have proven to be successful partial cost-effective substitutes for fossil fuels, but fossil fuels are stored energy, and solar and wind are not. Renewables are a disruption, and disruptions are usually not one-for-one substitutions. There are two strategies for replacing fossil fuels in the grid, and they can be used together: 1: Add energy storage for when renewable energy levels fall below a threshold. 2: Base load "solar and wind": Design to provide base load at a low threshold of wind and light. Without such strategies, it is impossible to reach the goal of removing reliance on fossil fuels. With the right strategy, it is possible to realise benefits go far beyond just replacement.

COP26: Were The Deck Chairs Sufficiently Shuffled?

Commenced: October 29, 2021

COP26. It sounds like a police officer who can't be named. For me it raises questions such as: Why "COP26" and what happened to the first 25 COPs?Are all decisions are made in advance, or is anything really agreed at the conference?Is there more than politicians and fossil fuel companies agreeing spin and token gestures?

Beyond COP26: 1.5°C Now Ensured, Where Next?

Commenced: November 4, 2021

COP27: Climate change action sabotage?

Commenced: November 16, 2022

Reports from COP27 seems indicate the key initiative this year to make wealthy nations cover the cost of the damages poor nations will incur as a result of emissions that have main originated from those wealthy nations. The proposal as it stands has a missing an essential piece, and trying to cover for that essential piece, appears most to likely to increase emissions, and move COP away from a focus on solving the climate crisis and instead toward just fighting over the cost. This is a troubled look at the key flaw in what has been put forward and the real solution that should be in place.

Why wait? We should end population growth NOW!

Commenced: November 5, 2021 Updated: March 22nd, 2023

2023 March 22 nd: Synopsis added.

I have been asked on a few occasions, why not end population growth now? It is not like we need to get more people before population growth should stop! Japan has stopped population growth, why not the rest of us? What are we waiting for?

EVs are green but there is no quick fix green transition.

Commenced: June 9, 2022 Updated: March 6th, 2023

2023 March 6 th: new introduction and general page cleanup.

There are many claims that EVs result in more emissions than fossil fuelled vehicles. The reality is that even when an EV is powered from a 'dirty' grid, it is clear that driving an EV does creates less emissions. Plus, although some EVs create more 'build emissions', EVs still have less lifetime emissions, even on today's grids. The EV transition will reduce emissions provided it is not rushed. But the transition still won't produce the desired emissions until the grid is also clean, and it will take decades to replace traditional vehicles on any sensible schedule. Buying an EV is better for the environment in the long term than buying an ICE vehicle but can be worse for the environment than just keeping the current vehicle. The key finding is that while it is best to stop buying so many new ICE vehicles ASAP, there should be no rush to replace existing ICE vehicles with EVs, and instead allow existing vehicles the around two decades until their normal scrap date.

Big Oil, AKA Big Fossil: How real, and what about ‘big climate’?

Commenced: June 7, 2022 Updated: February 27th, 2023

2023 Feb 27: Added Elon Musk section, details on oil revenues and slightly updated synopsis.

Yes, big oil with value at over US$7 billion per day in revenue at stake clearly has a vested interest in arguing against climate change and downplaying risks, but on the other hand, aren't there also vested interests exaggerating and overstating the risks of climate change? Effectively could 'big renewables', 'big science' or 'big climate', be out lobbying and out promoting 'big fossil'? Is this really a balanced fight, or is it more like the might of 'big tobacco' vs 'whistle blower medical research' all over again? This is a look at the financial might on each side of the argument, and the respective motives for each side to overstate their case.

The Power struggle in Australia.

Commenced: November 1, 2022 Updated: November 1st, 2022

2022 November 1: First published.

From "the biggest corruption scandal ever" in Brazil, problems in Venezuela, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Iran, to the problems caused by lobbyists against action on climate change, an abundance of fossil fuels is a source of political power, yet rarely force for good, and Australia, with a wealth of coal and gas, is not spared. The current crisis in Ukraine not only drives up energy prices globally, but it also creates a dilemma for gas producing nations.

Peak Child: When, and what does it mean?

Commenced: May 25, 2019

Globally, the when is now. Although locally, experiences differ by location. Data now clearly confirms that globally, the world has returned to 'peak child', a precursor to a likely return to peak population, and the end of three centuries of a population explosion. Return to peak child means we could either return to the gradual growth levels of prior to the industrial revolution, or become a mature species, and exist in balance with nature and other living things. Perhaps even stop displacing other species?

Natural Climate Change: Surprises from Nature!

Commenced: November 10, 2019 Updated: September 30th, 2022

2022 September 30: Added CO₂ been always critical.

There is a lot of focus on climate change caused by humans, as there should be! But this focus can miss just how fragile the environment is even without us humans breaking things. This page looks at some of the surprises are in store when we explore natural climate change. This exploration of natural changes, and the history and future of changes even without human interference as background relevant when considering the potential impact of man-made climate change. A big surprise is that life on Earth is already naturally on a downward spiral, and Earths 'carrying capacity' for all life is in natural decline already. The natural decline is far more gradual than possible impact of humans but does illustrate the fragility of nature. Fortunately, we have millions of years to develop solutions to avoid the worst natural climate disasters, provided we first find a way to avoid prematurely destroying the already fragile natural environment ourselves.

Why Population growth even before the explosion?

Commenced: August 21, 2022 Updated: August 15th, 2022

2022 August 15: First published.

Throughout history, although no other species on Earth has experienced such long term overall population growth, even before the recent population explosion, the human population kept slowly growing. Yes, we recently had an unprecedented population explosion, driven by is hidden by by the near elimination of previously tragic infant mortality, but against the background of long term growth, many of us never didn't even realise their was an explosion. But what drove population growth even before the explosion? What will now happen as the explosion ends?

Why Hydrogen Cars are not the future, and EVs are here to stay.

Commenced: January 3, 2018 Updated: August 1st, 2022

2022 August 7: Updates information of fast refuelling.

After friend told me "I am not interesting in electric cars, because I will wait for hydrogen cars", I did the research, and found that such a future would make no sense, and will never happen. It turns out that hydrogen cars were never "the ultimate", are now worse at times or range problem, and they were only ever expensive to build and operate, higher emissions, limited interim stop gaps, for the time until we solved limitations of battery EVs.

Next steps for mankind don’t include the Sci-Fi dream of a new home planet.

Commenced: May 31, 2016 Updated: July 26th, 2022

2022 July 26: Rewrite to update on "planets and moons" progress of colonising the solar system.

There is a dream, often explored in science fiction, where humanity inhabits not just one planet, but many. While the dream is still centuries away, as is 'Earth 2.0', the reality, working towards small outposts on Mars or the Moon or even beyond is overwhelming compelling and can provide many rewards. Humanity may get back up outposts, but for centuries, will have no real second home, and over 99% of us will still need to live on our one finite planet.

The Population Growth Economy Ponzi schemes.

Commenced: February 24, 2015 Updated: July 1st, 2022

2022 July 6th: Refresh and reformat.

When it dawned on me that global economy is effectively a Ponzi scheme, it felt was a 'light bulb' moment'. But has anyone else seen this? I did an internet search and was not surprised to find that it has, indeed, dawned on many others as well. If you do a search, as I did, you will find many insights into this topic and that there are several different ways the global economy can be seen as a Ponzi scheme. Scary!

Ghost cities and ghost homes: housing finance crisis?

Commenced: June 15, 2022 Updated: June 22nd, 2022

2022 June 22 : Updated to add information on how desperate developers now accept grain as a deposit.

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”Attributed to Kenneth Boulding in: United States. Congress. House (1973) This applies to not just to population growth, but just maybe also to the growth in value of housing. This page is a look at 'ghost cities' and 'ghost homes', and the window they provide into how distorted investment can become in the pursuit of growth. The end result of the distortions can be overvalued assets funded by highly leveraged ordinary citizens. If that is the case, not just with ghost cities but beyond, the correction will clearly present a financial crisis.

the surprises hiding in life expectancy numbers.

Commenced: May 17, 2022 Updated: May 20th, 2022

2022 May 20: Started discussion on further increase in life expectancy.

The main surprise is that life expectancy reveals very little about how long people typically live. From the 1500s till around 1800, life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 30 and 40 years of age, and it was only as recent as the 20th century, that life expectancy rose from 49.2 to 80.3 years. Yet famous historical figures from 2,000 years ago, typically lived to around 70 or longer.

New York, Sweden and the case for herd immunity.

Commenced: April 28, 2020

This post examines the idea that achieving herd immunity from an outbreak of Coiv-19 just might be a solid strategy. Not ‘let it rip’ herd immunity, which I will also review, but managed and optimised herd immunity where death and serious illness is kept to the lowest level possible. Two locations with that may have […]

Peak Population 2055: Really? That soon?

Commenced: April 30, 2019

Is it realistic that Earth could reach peak population by 2055, there really the largest number of under 35s on Earth there will ever be? Peak newborns already? What is the reality, and what are the implications?

The Potential Scale and Impact of population growth: 7 trillion humans?

Commenced: March 8, 2017

7 trillion looks like a typo, but no, the maths shows that either by continuing the actual global population growth levels typical the 20th century, or achieving 2% per year (or far less than what is currently happening in Nigeria), the maths produce this number in a relatively short time! Alternatively, consider that if we […]

Covid-19 Immunity: Layers, immunity from vaccination vs infection, and the good news.

Commenced: December 5, 2021

Shrek: No. Layers. Onions have layers. Ogres have layers. Onions have layers. You get it? We both have layers.Shrek Instead of a single immune response, the human immune system can be though of as having several layers of immune response, that all fade at different rates. Immunity is a complex set of different layers all subject to change over time at varying rates, making comparison between immunity following vaccination or infection highly time dependant.

Population on a Finite World: No Vacancies.

Commenced: July 21, 2021 Updated: April 1st, 2022

2022 April 4: fix typos.

The total biosphere of the planet is slowly contracting. Every niche on Earth where life exists, is filled by species to maximum capacity. Except for brief periods following Earth changing events, or other change of circumstances, there have been no new 'vacant' liveable environments on Earth for over 500 million years. Any increase in population of one species, requires a reduction in population of other species, in a process Darwin declared "survival of the fittest".

The electrical grid, V2G and EV Home Charging: Missing an opportunity for the planet.

Commenced: February 26, 2022 Updated: March 15th, 2022

*2022 Dec 16: Fully charged

Move to renewables for energy, and electricity for transport, and we solve the climate problem. But renewables require storage, and uptake of EVs requires home charging, and there is a cost to both. But what if electric vehicles could solve the "green power grid" problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality, and reduce costs? It turns out this dream scenario is definitely possible but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem is solved.

Vaccines are an Experiment: With People As Guinea Pigs?

Commenced: October 10, 2021

Someone recently suggested to me that vaccines represent an experiment, and people are the guinea pigs. It is a very valid point that vaccinating an entire population is an experiment, and there are risks. The real questions becomes, what are those risks, does the “payback” justify the risks, and are steps to minimise risks adequate. […]

Obama and Xi Jinping announcement: a huge step for climate action? Or a backward step?

Commenced: November 14, 2014

Obama is currently a ‘lame duck’ president with a hostile senate, and approval rating that suggests a likely hood the next US president may well be a republican. In Australia when the less conservative party took a position to take steps to address climate change, it became a call to arms for conseratives opposed to […]

The G20 outcome, a plan to make the earth a worse place?

Commenced: November 21, 2014

The recent G20 wrapped up with a commitment to target economic growth level for the G20 of 2.1% by 2018. Global population grwoth is over 1.1% so this means the worlds richest countries will be getting richer by just over 1% avove population increase per annum by 2018. Is there any suggestion that this addional […]

The Housing Price Trap: A global bubble?

Commenced: April 29, 2016

The Australian prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) was interviewed on the ABC program ‘7:30’ answering questions on government policy regarding tax concessions for real estate investments. The Prime Minister spoke of the need to retain a specific tax concession because reducing the concession would reduce demand, and to reduce demand would result in lower prices. The […]

Brexit and Trump: Common Theme?

Commenced: June 24, 2016

I suggest there are two key points in common between the nomination of Donald Trump as the republican candidate, and the ‘Brexit’ vote in the United Kingdom: the failure of our economic system to deliver distribute of increased economic wealth a backlash against immigration Economics. The first point is that we have created a disconnect […]

Peak Population: We May Never Return.

Commenced: October 12, 2021

For the environment, our peak population will be a nightmare. This page explores alternatives for the future of population, and the possibility that the current peak population will be the last time there are ever this many humans on Earth.

Economic Cost Of Peak Population: Market Crash in Japan, China, The World.

Commenced: November 24, 2021

The world has reached peak child, and is headed towards peak population. Many economic metrics collapse between peak child and peak population, resulting in bear stock markets and even collapses, all if the real economy and outside their investment portfolios, most people are relatively unaffected. Economic Ponzi Scheme Metrics. Peak Child and National Economies. Market […]

My Body My Choice: Polarization and Outrage, But Who Is Pulling The Strings?

Commenced: November 29, 2021

The whole “my body my choice” is perfect for polarisation, as you can be outraged because: People are being forced into medical choices for their own bodies. or People are making selfish choices that can cause harm to can harm others. Whatever you believe, “my body my choice” drives polarisation. I will look into each […]

Omicron Variant: For Better or For Worse?

Commenced: November 29, 2021

You would think a new variant of concern could not be a good thing, but it fact it is possible. The update (Dec 5th) is that while is is clear a variant could help, that variant may not be Omicron. Although this page will record data on omicron over time, given how long the virus […]

Omicron Alert, Or Already Time For Alarm?

Commenced: December 6, 2021

I first looked at Omicron just under one week ago. The data since that time has already been sufficient to rethink my origin viewpoint. Recap: Previously. What Has Changed? S. Africa Cases! The Norway Party. The Big Hope: Less Dangerous Than Delta? Revised Summary. Conclusions(2 weeks later): Scary, But Not Earth Shattering.

Omicron Doom, But Australia Parties & Experiments: December 2021 snapshot.

Commenced: December 16, 2021

It is mid December 2021. The Covid-19 responses are as divided as ever, but in new ways: In Australia, almost all remaining Covid-19 restrictions are being removed on the same day as record case numbers. In Europe, UK and many other locations, restrictions are increasing. Who has it wrong, and why do I have this […]

From Covid-Zero to Worlds Worst Outbreak? Tracking Omicron, and The Australian ‘Pandemic-Over’ Experiment.

Commenced: January 4, 2022

On December 16th, I wrote on how, despite the world facing a looming Omicron surge, Australia and one state in particular in Australia (NSW), opened up as others introduced restrictions. The result is case numbers effectively an experiment, moving to “The Pandemic Is Over” and we can “live with the virus” position, and no longer […]

Births Per Woman: Not quite what you would expect.

Commenced: August 12, 2019

This is an exploration of what 'births per woman' means, and how it is measured. Key to discussion about population is population growth, which is most commonly analysed from 'births per woman', which is also called 'fertility rate'. But what is 'births per woman'? Answer: not quite what you might expect, which means a small adjustment is required for interpreting births per woman when predicting population growth.

Overpopulation solutions? See it as a ratio, not a number.

Commenced: December 28, 2020

As established in the previous exploration: Overpopulation, Starvation is the last symptom, overpopulation is exceeding 'carrying capacity'. Reducing the number of people is counterproductive if the action to reduce population, reduces carrying capacity. If society was to collapse, then even with 1/10 the people, we could still be overpopulated relative what we could then support.

Covid-19 & Vaccination Deaths: Statistically, Coincidences will distort reported deaths.

Commenced: January 23, 2022

I read recently about reasonable people protesting over post vaccination deaths in South Korea, echoing stories from around the globe about the underreporting of deaths following vaccination. Can most of these deaths be just coincidences? This question has me seeking the real story on what is happening, not just with deaths following vaccination, but also with deaths from the virus. Almost one year after my initial exploration of vaccine efficacy and safety, now there is data, not just projections, so it is time for a review, and this question needs answering for any such a review.

Vaccine Safety & Efficacy: As claimed?

Commenced: February 14, 2021

Are Covid-19 vaccines safe, or is there a risk of long-term side effects, or even changes to our DNA? Which vaccine is the most effective, and are the statistics from trials real? Someone asked me if am I worried about long term side effects from vaccines, prompting me explore what I could discover.

Covid-19 Aug 2021: Almost over, or still a serious threat?

Commenced: August 17, 2021

This is a follow up to “mid 2021, can we live with Covid-19”, as significant further information has become available. Currently updated as at August 22nd. Will Vaccines end the Covid-19 problem, or is it an ongoing threat? Risks vs Optimism: A range of futures is possible. Looking on the bright side. The Worst That […]

Coronavirus: Facts, Myths and Surprises (March 20th 2020)

Commenced: March 20, 2020

(go here for link to latest update) This is a collection of facts on the ‘novel’ coronavirus, together with some discussion on myths and surprises such as: how quickly it could all end we do not know the mortality rate how the world will probably forever changed the debunking and fact exploring on topic of […]

Covid-19 Cases Numbers: Not what we are told

Commenced: March 28, 2020

Media reports, and government data, repeatedly presents ‘numbers of Covid-19 cases‘. However, the data presented is not the number true count of all cases numbers, but some fraction of cases that have been confirmed by testing. It is typically not even governments best guess of case numbers – it is the smaller number: ‘confirmed cases‘. […]

Ignore Covid-19 Fake News: Conscience Is The Main Reason To Avoid Infection.

Commenced: August 13, 2020

The media paints a very misleading picture as to the main threat presented by Covid-19. The risk for society overall that forces governments to adopt lockdowns is the risk of overloading hospitals. For most individuals, the greatest threat is not to their own health, but the fear that they getting infected, it could trigger a chain of infections and if a parent or grandparent of a friend dies in the outbreak, then that could have resulted from their infection.

Djokovic: Rescued from PR Disaster By Australian Leader “Scotty from Marketing” Morrison!

Commenced: January 10, 2022

Overview. There are No Heroes: Morrison – Djokovic. The Timeline. Overview. Novak Djokovic had committed a nightmare public relations mistake, appearing to gloat at having managed an exemption from the vaccination requirements for the Australian Open tennis tournament. Not necessarily a crowd favourite to begin with, Djokovic’s public announcement of the exemption that he had […]

Covid-19 is NOT ‘binary’: Severity is as Variable as with a Car Crash.

Commenced: August 7, 2020

The severity of Covid-19, is as variable as the severity of a car crash, because just as with car crashes, infections range from so mild they are inconsequential, to severe.

Jobs in the ‘ECO’ age part1: outsourced & offshored?

Commenced: May 9, 2016

A friend was commenting on how her employer, a major ‘blue-chip’ employer, was transforming the workplace. The shift in emphasis is to less work needing to take place in the office, and more provision for people to work from home. The direction it is heading is for people only to attend the office for scheduled […]

Industrial/Growth Age vs Information/Eco Age

Commenced: May 3, 2016

Industrial/Growth Age Characteristics (discussed in detail later in the post) automation replaces manual labour time to travel continually decreases automation and culture spreads around the globe population growth is unprecedented economic markets expand rapidly the Christian religion is the dominant religion of the revolution Have I missed any? Most likely yes. Information/Eco Age Characteristics (again, […]

The population ‘catch 22’

Commenced: February 23, 2015

Abstract: There is a population ‘catch 22’ in that some countries with underlying population reduction continue to grow their population through immigration because these same countries are most attractive to potential immigrants. This hides the underlying population reduction, and produces an illusion that populations always grow. If you read this, chances are you live in […]

Australia in the Pandemic: Eye of the storm?

Commenced: March 24, 2021

This is a snapshot of the pandemic as of March 2021, looking at what life is like in Sydney Australia, and looking out at the world. The most recent case of a person infected in NSW , the state with Sydney as its capital, outside of quarantine was on March 17th and was a person […]

Population: Brace, the slow down has started!

Commenced: February 26, 2015

Surprising, global population growth is set to slow, because of changes to birth rates that have already occurred. Clearly families are not the size they were even 50 years ago. So why have we not already seen a change in growth? Is growth really going to slow down? The answer is that we have not […]

Will An Actual Vaccination Conspiracy In Australia Backfire Internationally?

Commenced: September 27, 2021

Secret Covid-19 Future: The Truth From a politician? It seems in Australia we have a genuine conspiracy to deceive the public. This is a conspiracy in two steps, with many conspirators only committed to the more benign step one, but likely being drawn into the more worrying step2. The Two Step Conspiracy: The People Don’t […]

China Population Surprise: Peak Population in 2022.

Commenced: December 19, 2021 Updated: December 19th, 2021

2021 Dec 19: Just clarifications.

I read a story on population in China that I found surprising in three ways. Synopsis. Peak China: The Population of China Has Already Peaked. I had not expected the population of China to peak for another 10 years, with another 30 million expected to be added to the current tally of 1.433 billion by […]

Vaccines: yes, some stories are too good to be true.

Commenced: March 17, 2021

I have been following Covid-19 since January 2020 I felt the world too complacent, through to today March 17 2021, when I now fear there may be too much faith in vaccines. Israel has been at the forefront of vaccination, and should provide an early indicator of what to expect. So today I thought I […]

Mid 2021: Eliminate it? Or ‘Live With’ Covid-19 and what follows?

Commenced: July 16, 2021

So far around 75% of countries who have lived with Covid19, most often not by choice, and around 25% of countries have lived in the shadow of Covid-19, but through elimination, mostly without Covid-19. Vaccinations may allow living with Covid-19 to be more palatable, but they also provide an opportunity for more countries to eliminate […]

ScoMo Ingenious EV Plan: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, leading climate action blocker, stretching the truth again?

Commenced: November 19, 2021 Updated: November 19th, 2021

*2022 March 8: Minor typos and fixes.

After a long history resisting action on climate change, the Australian government finally 'committed' to net zero by 2050, and then did an about face from their previous 'anti-EV' stance and announced support for electric vehicles. Or did they?

Methane: Can A ‘Green’ Agenda Derail Climate Action?

Commenced: November 1, 2021 Updated: November 1st, 2021

*2022 Oct 10: fixed missing graphic.

If you were 'big oil', and you were trying to delay action on climate change impacting the fossil fuel industry, what would be your strategy? Would you point the finger elsewhere to create maximum division? This is a questioning look as to whether there is misdirection to create a distraction on for climate change, and just maybe, it is working.

The Curve: The basics of a Pandemic

Commenced: March 29, 2020

Covid-19 has made many phrases like ‘flattening the curve’ become part of News broadcasts, political announcements, and even everyday conversations. But, what is the curve? Why is there a curve to flatten? This post explores, the ‘curve’ and finds how herd immunity is the sole factor that produces the ‘bell curve’ resembling shape. Creating Your […]

Hydrogen Future of Fool’s Gold & Scams: “Where does the hydrogen come from?”

Commenced: October 24, 2021 Updated: October 24th, 2021

*2023 May 17 th: Updated synopsis and revised.

The race to stop CO2, has led to many 'scams' projects involving hydrogen, but it is not always clear who is being scammed: the public, or the proponents of hydrogen projects. What is the attraction behind the obsession with hydrogen? This is a look at the motives, the myths and the facts around hydrogen projects. Spoiler: There are some valid roles for hydrogen, but hydrogen has no remaining role as an energy source, and even any potential role as an energy carrier is highly questionable.

Vaccinations and Spread: The Dangerous Myth That Vaccinated People Don’t Spread Covid-19

Commenced: July 30, 2021

October 2021 Update: Provax vs antivax. The Real Impact of Vaccines is a score, not binary. Spread With Delta Variant (6.5). The score on spread reduction: 2x? 3x? The score on death prevention: 10x reduction? Vaccine passports: Good and Bad! Original Content: July 2021 Confirmation of reality: Extensive spread even when vaccinated. We Know Elimination […]

A long journey to an understanding of population.

Commenced: August 29, 2021 Updated: September 30th, 2021

2021 September 30: Updated to reflect the Optimal Population theory.

Population is a complex subject. To arrive at my current level of understanding, it took many 'light bulb moments' over the years since starting research in 2013, with many realisations shattering some of my previous beliefs, and sometimes taking years to be ready to take the next step. Here is a recap of that journey. If you can move quickly from step to step, then you can absorb information faster than I can, but perhaps this information will inspire others on their own journey.

Coffee: How many cups a day is ok, or even beneficial?

Commenced: June 4, 2021

There is conventional wisdom: too many cups of coffee can be bad for you. There are also, a surprising number of of extremely rigorous reports confirming a certain number of cups of coffee per day may be a good thing. What is most often missing is the definition of ‘a cup’. How big is ‘a […]

If the earth is overpopulated, so what?

Commenced: November 21, 2014 Updated: August 22nd, 2021

*2022 Nov 17: Minor cleanup, added image.

Yes, although not everyone agrees, the Earth is overpopulated by normal definition of overpopulation: population beyond sustainable carrying capacity. For those who do feel the earth is overpopulated: "Don't panic, and reducing population is not a quick fix".

July 2021: Vaccines or Not, Its Not Over Yet.

Commenced: July 8, 2021

June/July 2021: Covid-19 may seem to be under control- but we are not there yet. The World Picture: Snapshots Of Instability. Australia: The Great Delta Experiment. Vaccination Chaos, Politics. India: First Impact Site of Delta, and a dramatic recovery? UK: Reopening, seriously? US: A mystery to the decline in cases? Israel: 80% immunity and still […]

How long can/should/will population growth continue?

Commenced: February 18, 2015

There are at least four conflicting perspectives to population growth. Continued population growth is an economic requirement, is the optimum path for economic prosperity, and therefore must continue indefinitely. Global population will peak at approximately 9 billion around 2050 (official UN projection according to wikipedia page at time of writing), or at most around 11 […]

the economic impact of population growth and immigration

Commenced: March 3, 2015

My suggestion in my future population posts is that population growth has a greater effect on economic indicators than on real wealth of citizens. Here is an attempt to look at the economic impact of population growth, and what factors are real and identify any cases where indicators are positive beyond any real economic benefits. […]

Covid-19 Endgames & Exiting Lockdowns

Commenced: April 7, 2020

At this time (7th April), there is much talk of ‘peaks’ and ‘flattened curves’. There are suggestions that ‘the worst may be over’. Talk about lockdowns being relaxed or even removed. An outbreak running from start to end is a journey. With Coivd-19 that journey may include trials worthy of a journey in a Lord […]

China Virus, or USA Virus?

Commenced: September 3, 2020

No, I am not saying we anyone should be calling Sars-Cov2 the US virus. What I am saying, is that there is a real risk unless there is some caution, some people could start pointing the finger at the US, for new outbreaks of Covid-19 as time progresses. Consider, the US is currently the largest […]

Wet Market? Weapon? Laboratory? Where and When DID Covid-19 start?

Commenced: June 2, 2020

The question of how the outbreak of Covid-19 started could end up changing the balance of world politics. It is that big. This page reviews the various origin stories, and I will update this page if more comes to light. No, it did not start in a wet market in December. When were the Earliest […]

Population Growth Change Lag: The Population Pipeline

Commenced: May 16, 2016

There is a life-time length lag or delay between any change in birth-rates, and those birth-rates being fully reflected in the population growth (or reduction) rate. This can create the paradox where a country with low birth rates, may still grow in population for decades. It is also why the world population will continue to […]

‘Sustainable energy’: what is it? What are the actual sources of energy?

Commenced: December 27, 2014

Sources Of Energy, and sustainability. 1: Solar energy. 2: gravitational/kinetic energy. 3. Nuclear energy 4: Thermal energy from the earth. Energy Usage Heat, Light, Electronics, Kinetic Power Storage Chemical potential, electrical potential, gravitational potential Renewable & Sustainable Renewable Sustainable Examples Original sources of energy, and their sustainability. There are few actual original sources of power. […]

Covid-19 in 2021: Threat of Dangerous Assumptions.

Commenced: January 2, 2021

2020 is regarded by many as ‘anus horribilis’. Enter 2021 and the hope for better, however dangerous assumptions, including that with a vaccines and a new year all will be fine, create a very real threat that 2021 may be no better than 2020. We come into 2021 armed with vaccines, but with Covid-19 case […]

Covid-19 Vaccine Myths

Commenced: December 6, 2020

There are many many myths about vaccines. Ranging from they are all part of some conspiracy, through to they are a miracle solution to Covid-19. Myths that place too much faith in vaccines can cause ‘Covid-19 complacency’, which could make things even worse in 2021 than even 2020. This post focuses on myths that place […]

Environmental Damage: The Overpopulation Indicator

Commenced: March 10, 2021 Updated: March 10th, 2021

2021 March 10 : Commenced.

Overpopulation is when there when population cannot exist sustainably without damage to the environment. Warnings of overpopulation often focus on the eventual starvation that could occur following environmental collapse, rather than the time bomb of declining living conditions for multiple species. Although such a substantial human population existing unsustainably wreaks havoc on the planet, borrowing from the future though unsustainable agriculture can delay any starvation for decades. However, as those who profit from overpopulation are sufficiently rich that they can improve their living conditions even as average resources per person declines, the wealthy will keep advocating "population growth is the path to prosperity". But can we risk becoming an Easter Island story by prioritising population growth to please the billionaires over a return to sustainability?

Monopolies: A global trend?

Commenced: February 11, 2015

The wealth differential is increasing not just between rich and poor individuals, by in the corporate world as well. I have been thinking about the increasing trend towards monopolies and the problems with modern government structure and monopolies. Starting with some thoughts on the background, and then why monopolies may be on the increase. The […]

Vaccines: Another Covid-19 Mistake, plus > 5,000 deaths

Commenced: January 20, 2021

It is already January 20 here, but in the US, it is still very early in the morning, and the inauguration of President Biden awaits. So does the release of Covid-19 statistics for the day, and although numbers may be delayed until tomorrow, the US will likely record a tragic daily record of over 5,000 […]

Do we NEED another Meteor?

Commenced: September 21, 2019

I read how recently NASA revealed that a large asteroid came close to colliding with Earth, and had gone undetected until it was almost upon us. An article about the ‘volcanic winter’ that could follow such an event had me wondering: “Does the Earth need meteor strikes to avoid greenhouse gas runaway destroying life on […]

Sport and the Precarious Australian Open

Commenced: December 20, 2020

Current Australia is one of places in the world where you are least likely to become infected with Covid-19. Keeping it that way, is extremely difficult when a significant percentage of international arrivals can bring the virus into a country only enduring cursory changes to lifestyle in the face of the pandemic. The fragile freedom […]

‘99 Percent’ of Virus Cases Are ‘Totally Harmless’?

Commenced: July 7, 2020

Aside from the fact that society does not normally accept harming 1% of the population as an ‘acceptable risk’ (e.g. we ban toys that present a choking hazard even though 99% of children would not choke on them), which is the main reason people object to the statement, what is the actual basis for the […]

Covid-19 has a unique ability to bypass Vaccines?

Commenced: August 10, 2020

This post started out examining the research suggesting approximately 50% of the population were already naturally immune to Covid-19 from the outset. I review this research in this post, as well as what I think is the even more significant question: how could Covid-19 spread as it has, if 50% of people were already immune? […]

Coivd-19 Lessons from New Zealand

Commenced: August 18, 2020

“The places they were using to hold up, they are having a big surge. I don’t want that. I don’t want that. They were holding up names of countries, and now they are saying ‘whoops’,” Trump said. “Even New Zealand, you see what is going on in New Zealand. They beat it, they beat it. […]

From Masks, Parties and Isolation to Vaccines: Compliance, Coercion, Enforcement, Screw Ups + Sabotage

Commenced: August 26, 2020

In a world of conspiracy theories, complacency and ‘Coronavirus fatigue’, will people simply follow guidelines because you ask them, or do you need to coerce or even enforce compliance? Various authorities have also been sending signals, or even creating rules, that discourage compliance. Sometimes this is deliberate sabotage from outside, but more often the sabotage […]

Vaccines, Reality, and Russia

Commenced: August 18, 2020

Russia has announced it now leads the world by being first with a tested, safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. Jokes (and there have been a few) aside, how real is this? Could this vaccine, or any other, be ready, tested, safe and effective anytime soon. Russia, The Jokes, The Reality Is a phase 3 […]

Covid-19 Complacency: Why?

Commenced: August 16, 2020

This post is on ‘the reasons for complacency’, I will cover the impact of complacency in another post. Despite governments either advising, or even requiring, adherence to a set of guidelines, people do not always comply. In the end non-compliance stems from a personal judgement that any negative outcomes from non-compliance are either overstated, or […]