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2020: Trump ‘wins’ on election Night?

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It is almost certain Trump will hold the lead in votes counted at the end of the night on November 3. While it is possible that Trump could still hold the lead once all votes are counted, Trump is extremely unlikely take the risk that will eventuate and will instead launch legal challenges to the vote count continuing.

The rhetoric will and outrage will begin with Trump declaring that the election ended with Trump in front, and further counts are ‘fake counts’ to steal his victory.

  • The voting results.
  • The Trump Strategy.
  • The Divided Nation following the election.

The voting results.

In my previous post (Biden vs Trump), I predicted a result sufficiently close that there would be disputes. I now believe that the only outcome that can prevent legal challenges and an uprising is the very unlikely scenario that Joe Biden is ahead in the count at the end of election night, November 3.

The larger number of Democrats voting by mail makes it extremely unlikely that Joe Biden will be ahead on this first night, but no other result will prevent Trump claiming victory, and launching a legal challenge and at least a dog whistle to call to arms the more extremist members of the electorate. While it would be possible that at the end of counting votes Trump would win the election anyway, it seems almost certain he will not wait to find out.

Failing the very unlikely scenario democrats are ahead on election night, the real Trump campaign will begin in earnest.

The Trump Strategy.

It is not a matter of whether Trump wins or Loses. Do not expect Trump to wait to find out the final result. All Trump needs is to be ahead in the count at some point, in order to declare he is the winner and further vote counts represent fraud.

The deadline for states to submit election results is December 8. Trumps strategy will most likely be to prevent as many states as possible from being able to submit votes counts by this date. Everything from legal challenges through to civil disobedience, riots and actions of armed militia could play a role. Can these steps delay count for an entire month?

The second part of the strategy relies upon Republicans retaining sufficient state majorities in congress for republicans to win a contested election vote. Repubicans would win such a vote if help with the current congress, but is possible this situation could change. Again, Trump cannot wait for an answer to this question, the tactics will begin immediately.

The Divided Nation following the election.

It is possible Trump will win the election even without successfully disrupting the count. Even more likely is the that Trumps efforts to disrupt votes being submitted by states by December 8 will fail, but that will not stop him trying. Nor will it prevent citizens who feel Trump will be ‘robbed’ of an election win from taking matters in to their own hands. Previous events are telling:

All it takes is Trump commencing his campaign to disrupt counting to ensure that, regardless of the final outcome, America is even more deeply divided that ever with a few short days from now.

It is almost certain Trump will declare he wins on election night. But perhaps Americas enemies such as Putin are the most certain winners as chaos ensues.

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Crime: A litmus test for inequality?

April 25, 2023 April 5, 2023

Around the world, many countries have both a battle with equality for some racial groups and minorities and also a battle with crime-rates within and by those same groups.

Should we consider crime rates the real sentinels of problems and a solution require focusing on factors behind crime rates? Or is the correct response to rising crime rates or crime rates within specific groups an adoption of being “tough on crime”, thus increasing rates of incarceration and even deaths in custody for oppressed minorities and racial groups?

This is an exploration of not adjusting the level of penalties and instead focusing on the core issues and inequalities behind crime-rates. It is clear that it is “damaged people” in general rather than specific racial groups that correlate with elevated crime rates, so why not use crime rates to identify who is facing inequality?

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Influence: There’s no free lunch and they use your data to make you pay.

January 16, 2023 August 17, 2023

It can seem all those tech companies are so dumb giving away services for free.

I recently read another comment containing the “I don’t want Google getting more of my data to sell” and it reminded me of the question, ‘why is your data valuable?’ people too rarely ask. The common myth is that Facebook and Google etc want your data so they can sell it, but even with companies that do sell your data, it still requires someone to turn data into money, and enough money to fund the “free” services of the tech companies and allow them enough spare to make profits beyond anything seen in the world previously. So how does the data turn into so much money?

There is no such thing as a free lunch. Google and Facebook etc make their money from advertising, not from selling data, and unless they use can the data to persuade you to buy products at prices inflated by advertisers paying part of the sale price to Facebook/Google etc, they would lose money.

Your data is used to inflate the cost of living and earn votes for politicians with an agenda that gives them a budget to spend. They (Google/Facebook etc) don’t want to sell your data, but the reality, is more sinister: they use it to have to change your thinking, so more of your money will go to make them richer.

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The Power struggle in Australia.

November 1, 2022 November 1, 2022

From “the biggest corruption scandal ever” in Brazil, problems in Venezuela, human rights in Saudi Arabia and Iran, to the problems caused by lobbyists against action on climate change, an abundance of fossil fuels is a source of political power, yet rarely force for good, and Australia, with a wealth of coal and gas, is not spared.

The current crisis in Ukraine not only drives up energy prices globally, but it also creates a dilemma for gas producing nations.

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Fragile Democracy: Was Scott ‘Scomo’ Morrison autocrat of Australia?

August 17, 2022 August 17, 2022

Democracy collapses when a leader, who is able to bypass the checks and balances, uses their position to retain power.

Steps by recent leaders Scott Morrison and Australia and Donald Trump in the USA, raise questions as to whether current reliance on conventions and constitutions reliably protects democracy.

China, Russia and even North Korea are all technically democracies, and all proof of how technically being a democracy does not necessarily deliver real democracy.

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Ukraine: Putin and China, method or madness?

June 16, 2022 July 1, 2023

What if Russia and China both intended that the invasion of Ukraine would trigger global inflation and food shortages, and a potentially new financial crisis?

That Putin sees himself in the image of Peter the Great and restoring the Russian empire is no secret, and is generally portrayed as evidence that Putin has completely lost the plot. But what if there is a bigger plan involving both Russia and China that starts with triggering a global financial crisis? A dangerous game by two desperate leaders needing to bring others with them as their own economies collapse.

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