EVs, Mobility and Electrification.

If you follow car industry publications, there both facts and well recognised predictions that combined, signal a storm for the car industry. Reality: Why The Makers Are Lying. In less than 5 years, electric vehicles will become less expensive than ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and are already significantly less expensive to maintain. Lower cost […]

The race to stop CO2, has led to many 'scams' projects involving hydrogen, but it is not always clear who is being scammed: the public, or the proponents of hydrogen projects. What is the attraction behind the obsession with hydrogen? This is a look at the motives, the myths and the facts around hydrogen projects. Spoiler: There are some valid roles for hydrogen, but hydrogen has no role as an energy source, and even any potential role as an energy carrier is highly questionable.

I recently explored how in 2021, the numbers for EVs don’t really add up yet. One of the key discoveries, was that many sensible people are projecting EVs will reach ‘price parity’ by 2024-5. If this happens consider the trend: Looking deeper, there is every reason those predictions look real, and this will completely turn […]

Right now, without subsidies, buying an electric car does not add up. Currently there is a price premium, and as a result the cars only appeal to those happy to pay a premium to indulge a passion. Buyers are prepared to pay a premium for the environment or the acceleration, but right now, buying is […]

There already are some EVs with not just "Schrödinger's parity", but genuine price-parity winning not just awards, but topping sales charts. These are mostly from the Tesla and BYD duopoly, but they are not entirely alone. Beating ICE vehicles in sales chart is the best test for price-parity, and segment by segment, EV contenders are being launched. Yes, there are still many overpriced 'token EVs' that either exist to satisfy green requirements, provide products for brand loyalists demanding EV products, or help convince their makers "there is little demand for EVs". This is an evaluation of price parity, and a list of vehicles with price parity on the market. The previously subsidy free Australian market is the base, but with inclusion of key international. The implications for established brands, and brand loyalty were surprising.

Eventually, EVs will take over, but for most people even price parity EVs are still not 'there yet', and that take over could take 30 years. This webpaper compares vehicle types from "standard" gasoline/petrol and diesel vehicles, with hybrids, plug in hybrids and battery electric vehicles (EVs). There is a separate exploration of hydrogen vs battery electric cars, so this page is pros and cons of hybrids vs "standard" vehicles, or pure battery electric vehicles (EVs).

There are many claims that EVs result in more emissions than fossil fuelled vehicles. The reality is that even when an EV is powered from a 'dirty' grid, it is clear that driving an EV creates less emissions. What is less clear, is whether the emission reduction when driven justifies the emissions that are created when building the EV? Buying an EV is better for the environment in the long term than buying an ICE vehicle but can be worse for the environment than not buying any new vehicle at all. The key finding is that while it is best to stop buying so many new ICE vehicles ASAP, there should be no rush to replace existing ICE vehicles with EVs, and instead allow existing vehicles the around two decades until their normal scrap date.

Batteries for EVs have progressed: From: very expensive even while delivering an impractical range.To: Less expensive with an acceptable range. Only now in 2022, are batteries showing signs they can soon enable EVs price competitive and range competitive. With the new world of EVs, comes a whole new world of understanding cars, with batteries at the centre. This page provides background, the rethink batteries bring, the different battery technologies, though to how to car for batteries, and who makes what.

Electric vehicles have become desirable "real" cars much sooner than many brands expected or wanted. We are in a time of disruption by electrification as planes, trains and automobiles, as well as shipping, all move to electric power, but it is the car industry that will be most disrupted. New players such as Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and others, combined with the globalisation of the EV centric Chinese car industry, will take around 50% of the market. So what happens to the existing big brands of the legacy car industry? Either half die out, all halve in size, or some combination of both.

It is easy to underestimate how long it will take consumers to transition to EVs, and equally easy to underestimate how urgently manufactures need to transition to avoid collapse. Two transition speeds? Yes, brands will switch to EVs in their showroom by 2025 or risk failure, but in what seems like a complete disconnect, there will still be internal combustion vehicles on the road past 2050. Around 10.5 million Electric Vehicles were delivered in 2022, which resulted in less than 0.7% of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles (ICEVs) being replaced by EVs during 2022, even those EVs represented 13% of new vehicles sales. The data shows that new car showrooms transition to EVs 20x faster than the roads, and vehicle manufacture transition 20x faster then the public, and while ICEVs will likely still around beyond 2050, vehicle makers that can't switch fast enough could collapse by 2030, bringing radical economic change.

Once the darling of Hollywood in the wake of "green" image built by the Prius hybrid, Toyota has more recently prompted shareholder complaints, and calls for boycotts by climate groups in response to Toyota anti-climate action and anti-EV lobbying that has seen the company reach the status of no 3 climate enemy company in the world, behind only Exxon-Mobil and Chevron. Either Toyota is ideologically against action on climate change, or senior management see no way for Toyota to survive the EV transition.

I started a page on the Atto 3 back in April 2022, but the launch in Australia has become so complex that it justifies a separate page, so here it is together with NZ information, starting with content moved from the original page, but updated. This is a page with details about the Australian, and New Zealand rollouts of the Atto 3 and the BYD brand, which from these humble beginnings, could become a major part of the automotive scene in both countries. For the general overview of the Atto 3, including information learnt from the experiences of owners, including those in Australia and New Zealand, see the main Atto 3 page. For the strange events around the Australian launch, and the use of the centre rear seat for baby capsules, read on!

The world of EVs is changing, as is the leadership. Tesla lost 50% of its valuation in 2022. Some are predicting it will lose half of the remaining value in 2023, and although others predict the stock price will rebound, both outcomes are possible, and which becomes reality could depend very much on whether Tesla can remain 'cool', or through Musk and twitter becomes linked to far right. Although entire EV future is not dependant solely on Tesla, a decline could have wide implications, for the market, competitors and the global transition to EVs. Not only are the 'legacy' automotive companies GM, Ford, VW and Toyota competition for the hearts and dollars from consumers, but also BYD, who is already taking the EV lead from Tesla. Keys factor in EV trends during 2023 could turn out to be who is 'cool', shifting perceptions of a climate threat and the need for rapid response, and the impact of conflicts such as Ukraine. Rapid radical change for the industry, but it will take longer to impact consumers.

Why is it so hard to make money from making EVs at a competitive price? This is an exploration of the profitability challenges, and the answers to "Do only Tesla & BYD profit from EVs?" and "Why make vehicles at a loss?". Auto makers must either 1) find a way to make EVs at profit, 2) close down, or 3) hope there will still be a large enough market for ICEVs for them to survive. Highly funded research indicates that in future just 5 brands will dominate 80% of the market, and the reality is only one of the top ten automotive from 2021 is a likely contender.

The Atto 3 (or Yuan Plus) is not only EV giant BYD's, first global car, has now become the 3rd largest selling EV globally. Launched as BYDs first global model and the first 3rd wave EV for the west, already outselling Tesla vehicles and #1 selling EV in some markets, the Atto 3 could even challenge to become the world's top selling vehicle. While BYD has exported cars before, the Atto 3 is based on the "global focused" e-platform 3.0, and with a more significant launch into larger markets than previous BYD tentative exports, should spearhead the international push of the world's largest new energy vehicle maker.

In theory, and under ideal conditions, an EV road trip with DC rapid charging can be as time efficient as travelling in an ICE vehicle. However, conditions are not always ideal. Some trips take much longer, and others can become problematic. Will EV road-trips ever become as convenient and dependable as traveling by ICE vehicle?

People have for decades owned cars without needing to refuel at home, so it may not seem obvious just how important home charging is for owners of EVs. Various surveys confirm that 80% to 95% of EV charging happens at home and given that less than 80% of people have access to a space to be able to charge at home, those who can't charge at home are less likely to buy an EV. To understand the problem, try living with a mobile phone without charging at home, or at work.

There are 3 approaches to residents of apartments being able to charge EVs: They can go elsewhere to charge. A small number of charging spaces will be provided. Provision for individuals to have charging at the designated car space is facilitated. This is a look at why charging and getting it right is a challenge for apartment complexes, those who want the problem to remain unsolved, and the merits of the possible solutions.

This is the exploration of a chequered history, the battles between EV and oil and auto companies that is still happening today. From companies forcefully taking back EVs from consumers to destroy them, to the battle between pop group A-Ah and authorities in Norway, to the Toyota spending billions to fight EVs and the wheels literally falling off their 2022 electric car, from industrial intrigue involving Interpol red notices, to the rise of Tesla and BYD.

This page covers a lot. Charging equipment and what to install and how to charge at home, and charging on road trips, through to the technical side, and a look at wireless and the future of charging. Plus, how recharging requires a complete rethink from refuelling, and how charging can be more convenient and match the speed of refueling. Public recharging infrastructure for EVs is growing but recharging at home will be most important for most people. Fully benefiting from having an EV, requires understanding, being prepared for recharging.

For almost 100 years, people have grown up in an age of the internal combustion engine. For many people, this has meant an understanding of engine capacity, cylinders, spark plugs, engine compression, crankshafts, valves, turbochargers, exhausts etc. The bad news is that EVs mean so much that previous literacy is about to be consigned to history and replaced by permanent magnet and induction motors, regen braking, and other new terms. The good news is, it is easy to build and EV literacy on the those ICEV foundations, so there is no need to feel illiterate in this new EV world.

Has BYD overtaken Tesla as the leading EV maker? Yes and Not yet. It depends on how you count EVs, and there are strengths to both positions. So no undisputed world number 1, but by year end it is quite possible BYD will be clear number 1, at least for a while. These two are the current EV market leaders, and as EVs gain market share, these two are on trajectories to become no #1 and no #2 car carmakers world wide when EVs take over, if no legacy brand passes them. But will either of them ever reach true #1 before the chasing pack catches them? This page is to report and track progress.

This is a charge time calculator, which can be set to the charge curve of any car, but defaults to the values for the Atto 3.

In this polarised world, there seem to be two groups: those who all vehicles to be EVs now, and those who feel EVs will never be a good idea. Truth is, it would create a legal minefield and cost consumers and the environment heavily to ban too quickly, but bans will come. This is an exploration of reality of a transition to EVs, which concludes any optimum transition takes around 30 years. This conclusion means anyone wanting to reach EVs by 2050 needs to start very soon, and anyone worried all EVs should never happen, can take comfort that any environmentally sound transition will take a long time, although for economic reasons, does need to at least start soon.

EVs can be divided into 3 waves: EVs that people can use despite limitations including the Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, i-MiEV, and Zoe. Then EVs are truly competitive in premium and enthusiast markets: Tesla Model 3, then Model Y. Mainstream EVs at the Tesla Model A/2 price point, but so far from China, not Tesla. While China has been another world for EVs, with price competitive EVs from US$5,000, only now in 2022 is the rest of the world getting its first 3rd wave EVs, and so far, they all come from China. Teslas were sold globally, but every other EV, was either an EV not sold in China, or a Chinese only EV. Two separate worlds of EVs, that have begun a hurried unification and bring 3rd wave EVs and automotive industry disruption to the entire world.

There are solar boats and even a solar plane already, yet the solar vehicles we hear most about, solar cars, are as of early 2022, not yet on sale. However, that is about to change with at least 3 solar powered cars nearing production. The situation with solar cars is almost identical to the early days of EVs. Plus, the solar does not have to be built into the vehicle to enable solar powered travel. This page will be updated as solar vehicles come to market.

What is the real answer to how the grid will cope? First the answer from an actual power company, a link to one from a popular vlogger, both of which should placate most people, although neither is water tight as both skip over some details critical to the full answer. And then, the deeper questions on what the impact will be on power bills and reliability, and to the transitioning of the grid to renewables.

After friend told me "I am not interesting in electric cars, because I will wait for hydrogen cars", I did the research, and found that such a future would make no sense, and will never happen. It turns out that hydrogen cars were never "the ultimate", are now worse at times or range problem, and they were only ever expensive to build and operate, higher emissions, limited interim stop gaps, for the time until we solved limitations of battery EVs.

There is a full exploration of recharging electric vehicles on another page, but there is an a "refuelling" alternative to recharging: battery swapping. With electrical appliances in the past, when the batteries went flat, we swapped them. Then rechargeable batteries became popular so we could avoid throwing out the old batteries, but I swap first and then recharge. It turns out, we can also do that with cars, and it is happening already. Battery swapping, take only around 5 minutes, but so does recharging the latest batteries. Battery swapping will likely play a key role in the future, but not necessarily the role many expect.

This is a look at range, covering from how range specs don't mean what you would expect, through why range is so unlike that of fossil fuelled vehicles and optimising range is all about efficiency, through to what range is required around the town or on the highway. Range with EVs is such a different experience that novices can feel anxiety, despite that in practice running out of charge in EVs happens no more than ICE vehicles run out of gas. While EV range is getting closer to ICEV range, most EVs, unlike the Lightyear One pictured here, aren't solar and still don't match the range of internal combustion engine cars, but the convenience of background charging means range with EVs is usually only a limitation on relatively rare road trips.

The key specification for EVs so far has been 'range'. But how are the numbers measured, will range specific match reality, and can the number even be compared? It turns out there are even 3 different standards for measuring range, and they give very different answers! Further, why have we moved from 'economy' to 'range'? Is there still even economy with EVs?

Move to renewables for energy, and electricity for transport, and we solve the climate problem. But renewables require storage, and uptake of EVs requires home charging, and there is a cost to both. But what if electric vehicles could solve the "green power grid" problem, provide energy security, and avert a threat of increasing inequality, and reduce costs? It turns out this dream scenario is definitely possible but can be fully realised only if the home charging problem is solved.

(see the mystery below). Way back in 2001, Dean Kamen launched the Segway, heralding a new era in personal mobility. Although the Segway did not deliver that new era, it is possible he was onto something that is gradually becoming a reality. This is a look at how far the Unagi E500 model one electric scooter advances personal mobility, and what broader steps technology has made towards personal mobility.

By the end of 2022, Electric Vehicles (EVs) will be the choice for the majority of all new car buyers worldwide. In practice, while Asia and Europe will see EVs at over 50% market share, delivery in some key markets where EVs currently have around 5% market share to around 20% by year end, but the end of the internal combustion engine will clearly be looming. The motor vehicle industry, sales and servicing, will see upheaval with the majority of current players headed forced close or sell out.

All tools can bestow superpowers and motor vehicles are no exception.Superpowers provided by motor vehicles include the ability to quickly travel and transport goods and people on local trips, and the quite different but key superpower to travel to new and more distant places on road trips. .

There is much talk of a 'hydrogen economy', but what is the substance behind it all? There are many myths but hydrogen can be : 'green' hydrogen, not a source of energy, but a less efficient storage stepping stone on the path to battery power.or blue/grey hydrogen, the fossil fuel industries' hope for greenwashing emissions. This exploration provides looks at the reality, and the myths about hydrogen, and provides background for other pages such as: Electric or Hydrogen Cars and Hydrogen Scams.

I heard someone ask, “if EV (Electric Vehicle) sales continue to increase exponentially at the same rate, how long before all sales are EVs”? While exponential growth is no more sustainable for EVs than for anything else, the underlying statistics and real answer made me realise, EVs will probably reach an tipping point as soon […]

After a long history resisting action on climate change, the Australian government finally 'committed' to net zero by 2050, and then did an about face from their previous 'anti-EV' stance and announced support for electric vehicles. Or did they?

I have been exploring electric vehicles. What is needed to make them affordable, and what it is like to live with them. When exploring charging, the charging systems became so complex that I have extracted what I found as its own exploration, which I plan to keep updated as a reference. It currently does need an update for wireless charging, but some information can be found on my exploration of the logistics of charging.

One image of a driverless cars is a Google car with a very prominent LIDAR device on the roof. This is a look at the technologies and the needs of self drive systems, and where things are at in 2017. There is logic to the suggestion by Elon Must that LIDAR is not needed, but there is also logic to suggesting that the steps forward form where we are to true autonomous may be a lot more challenging than it appears.