Covid-19

Shrek: No. Layers. Onions have layers. Ogres have layers. Onions have layers. You get it? We both have layers.Shrek Instead of a single immune response, the human immune system can be though of as having several layers of immune response, that all fade at different rates. Immunity is a complex set of different layers all subject to change over time at varying rates, making comparison between immunity following vaccination or infection highly time dependant.

Someone recently suggested to me that vaccines represent an experiment, and people are the guinea pigs. It is a very valid point that vaccinating an entire population is an experiment, and there are risks. The real questions becomes, what are those risks, does the “payback” justify the risks, and are steps to minimise risks adequate. […]

The whole “my body my choice” is perfect for polarisation, as you can be outraged because: People are being forced into medical choices for their own bodies. or People are making selfish choices that can cause harm to can harm others. Whatever you believe, “my body my choice” drives polarisation. I will look into each […]

You would think a new variant of concern could not be a good thing, but it fact it is possible. The update (Dec 5th) is that while is is clear a variant could help, that variant may not be Omicron. Although this page will record data on omicron over time, given how long the virus […]

Are Covid-19 vaccines safe, or is there a risk of long-term side effects, or even changes to our DNA? Which vaccine is the most effective, and are the statistics from trials real? Someone asked me if am I worried about long term side effects from vaccines, prompting me explore what I could discover.

This is a follow up to “mid 2021, can we live with Covid-19”, as significant further information has become available. Currently updated as at August 22nd. Will Vaccines end the Covid-19 problem, or is it an ongoing threat? Risks vs Optimism: A range of futures is possible. Looking on the bright side. The Worst That […]

(go here for link to latest update) This is a collection of facts on the ‘novel’ coronavirus, together with some discussion on myths and surprises such as: how quickly it could all end we do not know the mortality rate how the world will probably forever changed the debunking and fact exploring on topic of […]

Media reports, and government data, repeatedly presents ‘numbers of Covid-19 cases‘. However, the data presented is not the number true count of all cases numbers, but some fraction of cases that have been confirmed by testing. It is typically not even governments best guess of case numbers – it is the smaller number: ‘confirmed cases‘. […]

The media paints a very misleading picture as to the main threat presented by Covid-19. The risk for society overall that forces governments to adopt lockdowns is the risk of overloading hospitals. For most individuals, the greatest threat is not to their own health, but the fear that they getting infected, it could trigger a chain of infections and if a parent or grandparent of a friend dies in the outbreak, then that could have resulted from their infection.

Overview. There are No Heroes: Morrison – Djokovic. The Timeline. Overview. Novak Djokovic had committed a nightmare public relations mistake, appearing to gloat at having managed an exemption from the vaccination requirements for the Australian Open tennis tournament. Not necessarily a crowd favourite to begin with, Djokovic’s public announcement of the exemption that he had […]

The severity of Covid-19, is as variable as the severity of a car crash, because just as with car crashes, infections range from so mild they are inconsequential, to severe.

This is a snapshot of the pandemic as of March 2021, looking at what life is like in Sydney Australia, and looking out at the world. The most recent case of a person infected in NSW , the state with Sydney as its capital, outside of quarantine was on March 17th and was a person […]

Secret Covid-19 Future: The Truth From a politician? It seems in Australia we have a genuine conspiracy to deceive the public. This is a conspiracy in two steps, with many conspirators only committed to the more benign step one, but likely being drawn into the more worrying step2. The Two Step Conspiracy: The People Don’t […]

I have been following Covid-19 since January 2020 I felt the world too complacent, through to today March 17 2021, when I now fear there may be too much faith in vaccines. Israel has been at the forefront of vaccination, and should provide an early indicator of what to expect. So today I thought I […]

So far around 75% of countries who have lived with Covid19, most often not by choice, and around 25% of countries have lived in the shadow of Covid-19, but through elimination, mostly without Covid-19. Vaccinations may allow living with Covid-19 to be more palatable, but they also provide an opportunity for more countries to eliminate […]

Covid-19 has made many phrases like ‘flattening the curve’ become part of News broadcasts, political announcements, and even everyday conversations. But, what is the curve? Why is there a curve to flatten? This post explores, the ‘curve’ and finds how herd immunity is the sole factor that produces the ‘bell curve’ resembling shape. Creating Your […]

October 2021 Update: Provax vs antivax. The Real Impact of Vaccines is a score, not binary. Spread With Delta Variant (6.5). The score on spread reduction: 2x? 3x? The score on death prevention: 10x reduction? Vaccine passports: Good and Bad! Original Content: July 2021 Confirmation of reality: Extensive spread even when vaccinated. We Know Elimination […]

June/July 2021: Covid-19 may seem to be under control- but we are not there yet. The World Picture: Snapshots Of Instability. Australia: The Great Delta Experiment. Vaccination Chaos, Politics. India: First Impact Site of Delta, and a dramatic recovery? UK: Reopening, seriously? US: A mystery to the decline in cases? Israel: 80% immunity and still […]

At this time (7th April), there is much talk of ‘peaks’ and ‘flattened curves’. There are suggestions that ‘the worst may be over’. Talk about lockdowns being relaxed or even removed. An outbreak running from start to end is a journey. With Coivd-19 that journey may include trials worthy of a journey in a Lord […]

No, I am not saying we anyone should be calling Sars-Cov2 the US virus. What I am saying, is that there is a real risk unless there is some caution, some people could start pointing the finger at the US, for new outbreaks of Covid-19 as time progresses. Consider, the US is currently the largest […]

The question of how the outbreak of Covid-19 started could end up changing the balance of world politics. It is that big. This page reviews the various origin stories, and I will update this page if more comes to light. No, it did not start in a wet market in December. When were the Earliest […]

2020 is regarded by many as ‘anus horribilis’. Enter 2021 and the hope for better, however dangerous assumptions, including that with a vaccines and a new year all will be fine, create a very real threat that 2021 may be no better than 2020. We come into 2021 armed with vaccines, but with Covid-19 case […]

There are many many myths about vaccines. Ranging from they are all part of some conspiracy, through to they are a miracle solution to Covid-19. Myths that place too much faith in vaccines can cause ‘Covid-19 complacency’, which could make things even worse in 2021 than even 2020. This post focuses on myths that place […]

It is already January 20 here, but in the US, it is still very early in the morning, and the inauguration of President Biden awaits. So does the release of Covid-19 statistics for the day, and although numbers may be delayed until tomorrow, the US will likely record a tragic daily record of over 5,000 […]

Radio waves, microwaves, millimetre waves, infra-red, visible light, ultra violet, x-rays, gamma rays… …… can seem so different, yet they are all electromagnetic radiation. All are composed of the same fundamental particle: the ‘photon’. All photons, travel at the ‘speed of light’ (or the ‘speed of photons?’), have the properties of a wave, and interact […]

Current Australia is one of places in the world where you are least likely to become infected with Covid-19. Keeping it that way, is extremely difficult when a significant percentage of international arrivals can bring the virus into a country only enduring cursory changes to lifestyle in the face of the pandemic. The fragile freedom […]

Aside from the fact that society does not normally accept harming 1% of the population as an ‘acceptable risk’ (e.g. we ban toys that present a choking hazard even though 99% of children would not choke on them), which is the main reason people object to the statement, what is the actual basis for the […]

This post started out examining the research suggesting approximately 50% of the population were already naturally immune to Covid-19 from the outset. I review this research in this post, as well as what I think is the even more significant question: how could Covid-19 spread as it has, if 50% of people were already immune? […]

“The places they were using to hold up, they are having a big surge. I don’t want that. I don’t want that. They were holding up names of countries, and now they are saying ‘whoops’,” Trump said.  “Even New Zealand, you see what is going on in New Zealand. They beat it, they beat it. […]

In a world of conspiracy theories, complacency and ‘Coronavirus fatigue’, will people simply follow guidelines because you ask them, or do you need to coerce or even enforce compliance? Various authorities have also been sending signals, or even creating rules, that discourage compliance. Sometimes this is deliberate sabotage from outside, but more often the sabotage […]

Russia has announced it now leads the world by being first with a tested, safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19. Jokes (and there have been a few) aside, how real is this? Could this vaccine, or any other, be ready, tested, safe and effective anytime soon. Russia, The Jokes, The Reality Is a phase 3 […]

This post is on ‘the reasons for complacency’, I will cover the impact of complacency in another post. Despite governments either advising, or even requiring, adherence to a set of guidelines, people do not always comply. In the end non-compliance stems from a personal judgement that any negative outcomes from non-compliance are either overstated, or […]

In 2020, it should be possible to use technology to significantly aid with track and trace capability. However, it seems government attempts to apply technology all too often become entangled in a power struggle that results in design compromises and ultimately an inferior solution. Does government have to be this compromised? The Power Struggle: Big […]

I have previously posted how every version strategy for dealing with Covid-19 can be considered a form containment strategy. The only variation between strategies is the boundaries of containment. The following rules apply for all strategies: too many cases: increase restrictions few enough cases: reduce distancing restrictions What changes with strategy is what is considered […]

Currently (at time of writing) in Australia, life is relatively ‘covid free’. Restaurants and shops are open, sports are being played, and even without limits on crowd numbers in some states. Yes, just over 100 people have died, but the last death now seems a long time ago. Not quite the success of a star […]

The Virus Strikes Back. Around 4 weeks ago Australia ‘the lucky ‘country’ had almost stumbled to eradication of Covid-19, but and I had the feeling that the luck was in danger or running out. Now, 4 weeks later, the situation has deteriorated. That deterioration calls into question the the official ‘suppression not eradication’ strategy. This […]

The response of every state or country to to Covid-19 amounts to containment governed by: A ‘too high‘ level when cases are too high, triggering increased lockdown measures and social distancing restrictions A ‘low enough‘ level where it is considered safe to then relax lockdowns and/or social distancing restrictions What obscures that fact that all […]

The most popular phrase in addressing Covid-19 quickly became ‘flattening the curve’. I suggest the unintended consequence of this phrase has been a dangerous misunderstanding of the nature the pandemic. With containment measures often dictated by politics, this misunderstanding may lead to a huge number of unnecessary deaths. In the US, this confusion is already […]

“The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said at the White House during a meeting with President Donald Trump. CNN: April 29th It this time remdesivir is not yet FDA approved, but it will be ‘fast-tracked’. The announcement came in a letter […]