One Finite Planet

Covid-19 & Vaccination Deaths: Statistically, Coincidences will distort reported deaths.

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I read recently about reasonable people protesting over post vaccination deaths in South Korea, echoing stories from around the globe about the underreporting of deaths following vaccination.

Can most of these deaths be just coincidences? This question has me seeking the real story on what is happening, not just with deaths following vaccination, but also with deaths from the virus. Almost one year after my initial exploration of vaccine efficacy and safety, now there is data, not just projections, so it is time for a review, and this question needs answering for any such a review.

I read recently about reasonable people protesting over post vaccination deaths in South Korea, echoing stories from around the globe about the underreporting of deaths following vaccination.

Can most of these deaths be just coincidences? This question has me seeking the real story on what is happening, not just with deaths following vaccination, but also with deaths from the virus. Almost one year after my initial exploration of vaccine efficacy and safety, now there is data, not just projections, so it is time for a review, and this question needs answering for any such a review.

The Key Questions.

How many people would statistically die within a week following vaccination?

Statistically there is a number of people who will die per week, spread across all age groups, and while some people are terminally ill, and others die from accidents, many deaths are not expected. What proportion of deaths, and for that matter other symptoms that occur following vaccination are just coincidence?

How many deaths attributed to the “Covid-19” virus are also just coincidence?

If a number of people who die following vaccination are to be considered coincidences, then surely the same applies to a number of deaths of people infected with Covid-19?

Calculating Underlying Death Rates.

The official view is that most deaths following vaccination are just coincidences. This raises the question, as to how many coincidences should we expect? For that matterBoth following vaccination, and for that matter, following infection with the virus. Are either or both statistics being distorted?

Consider a hypothetical population of 1 million people with an 80 year life expectancy without any effects of Covid-19. If the population is stable, then 1 in 80 dies every year, giving 12,500 people dying each year, which would be 240 each week, or just over 24 per day.

It is not just life expectancy that that affects deaths per year. The age distribution within the population as has a significant influence, and as population growth rates fluctuation and despite my looking for patterns, there are too many factors, and the best solution is to find deaths per annum during 2019 (prior to covid-19) for the relevant country, and number of millions in total population for 2019 and divide to calculate deaths per million. Answers will range from around 5,000 through to 12,000, with high numbers either indicating more elderly citizens, or lower life expectancy.

Expected Deaths By Coincidence.

Vaccinations And South Korea and Coincidental Deaths.

That articles of protests over deaths following vaccinations in South Korea states more than 1,000 Koreans died shortly after vaccination, but the definition of shortly is a little vague. Lets assume in this case ‘shortly after’ to mean within 2 weeks. For South Korea, the deaths per million per year comes to 4,641.379, which divided by 26 as there are 26 two-week periods per year, means 179 deaths per million per two week period. Since 40 million South Koreans were vaccinated up to the time of the article, it would be expected that over 7,000 Koreans would have died shortly after vaccination, simply by statistics, even if vaccination itself was never responsible. If 1 in 7 of those deaths was due to failing health, such that it seems even remotely possible vaccination plays a role, then there would be over 1,000 people left with suspicions.

It is know from a wide number of sources from the experiments by B.F. Skinner, thought to tribal customs associating rituals with the gods providing favourable weather and preventing disasters, that it is part of human nature to interpret even the most unlikely sequence of events as being a case of the first event causing the second. Clearly, vaccination can trigger reactions in the human body that can result in death, but it turns out these that statistics alone do not indicate vaccination playing a significantly wider role in deaths than what is so far officially acknowledged. The vast majority of deaths and illness following vaccination are likely to be coincidental, but that is of little comfort to those affected.

Covid-19 infections in NSW, Australia and Coincidental Deaths.

On the other side, if there could over 7,000 deaths shortly following vaccination in South Korea in 2021, how many of the deaths attributed to Covid-19 infection, might also just be statistical?

The higher the percentage of the population infected, and the lower the mortality rate despite the high rate of infection, the greater the chance statistics will be impacted, particularly since most statistics count all patients who were infected at the time of death, even if other medical factors also contribute to the death.

I use the state of NSW, Australia as example, as I have been collecting data on number of people infected for that state from my monitoring their “let it rip” experiment, which results in a very high number of people infected over a short period of time, and therefore would show potential for a distortion of reported statistics.

The deaths per year per million for Australia are 6,511.58 and with the state of New South Wales having a population of almost exactly 8 million, there would be an average of 52,093.6 deaths per year, which is 143 deaths per day. So if every one in the state was infected at once, on average 143 people would die while infected with Covid-19. There is no accurate count of how many people are infected, and there never is in any location where cases numbers exceed around 5% and testing is returning over 10% of those tested being infected. At one extreme, it is possible there have been as many as 20% of the state infected, which would statistically mean around 28 people per day dying while they have Covid-19 even if that played no role in their death. However, deaths are only recorded as Covid-19 deaths if the the person was already officially recorded as having tested positive, so the ‘active cases’ based on tests recorded by the health system, is the applicable count. While many other people my die while infected by Coivd-19, their case will not be detected unless their is an autopsy to determine cause of death. In other words, most truly coincidental cases where people who die also happen Covid-19, never become part of official statistics.

Cases of Covid-19 known to the health care system, peaked at around 330,000 cases at one time. This represents less then 5% of the, so statistically, coincidental deaths would peak at around 6 deaths per day. During the period of peak cases, NSW recorded an average of 21.6 deaths per day, which suggests most likely as high as 27% of deaths being reported at the peak of a ‘wave’ of Covid-19 may be coincidental deaths, unless a jurisdiction takes extraordinary steps to discount these deaths. Note that in most locations, at the peak of a wave, the fact that most cases are undiagnosed will likely result in an underreporting of deaths that could balance or exceed the reporting of coincidental deaths. At the peak, cases have been rising, but actual deaths from Covid-19 lag the peak, and both factors contribute to this high percentage. For the 5 days after the peak in NSW the active cases had fallen to 260,000, but average deaths of those days were higher at 33.8, which halves the percentage of deaths attributable to coincidence within just 5 days.

Conclusion: Coincidental Deaths are significant.

While some deaths in the two weeks following vaccination are a result of vaccination, these are insignificant statistically relative to those that are simply a coincidence, as certain percentage of people die each week. Over 7,000 would be expected to die within two weeks of vaccination during the months vaccines were administered in South Korea, even if those people had not been vaccinated.

Coincidental deaths will also occur following infection with Covid-19, and could at peak of a wave account for as high as almost 27% of deaths, but this would happen only for a brief period, and following the wave peak the percentage will fall quickly. Given the excess deaths experienced during Covid-19 being greater than explained by official Covid-19 mortality rates, if coincidental deaths exaggerate Covid-19 deaths, it is only for a brief time prior and during the peak of a wave of cases.

Appendices.

Appendix 1: Predicting Annual Deaths Per Million By Country Profile.

I started by assuming countries with rapid population growth would have growning pop

Even for a country matching exactly the life expectancy is 80 years, the deaths per million per year will change due to vary mixes of ages within the population. A life expectancy of 80 years does not mean everyone lives until 80 and then dies that year, and reality is a mix of all ages averaging out at 80, making the equation complex when population has been increasing year on year. If for example, the country had almost no one over the age of 40 for some reason, then you would expect less deaths per year until the population ages.

I wondered if there were a few distinct patterns, and countries could be divided approximately into categories when those in category would have similar deaths per million per annum.

To get an indication of life expectancy and population increase over the time in different types of countries, here is a table of life expectancy and population growth from 1950 to 2019 for a selection of countries. This is only 70 years as, data prior to 1950 is difficult to obtain, and 2020 statistics can be affected by Coivd-19, but the patterns are still clear.

CountryNigeriaAustraliaUSACanadaGermanyUK
Life Expectancy (WHO)62.68378.482.281.381.3
Population Increase Ratio5.293.132.082.731.191.32
Actual deaths per million11,9176,5128,6517,9399,3528,922
Population increase from 1950 to 2020. (Note: the goal is actual deaths, not age adjusted)

These examples represent:

  • African high birth rate countries
  • New world OECD high immigration countries
  • “old world” OECD countries.

Australia with a population growth rate through immigration, and a long life expectancy, has an extremely low deaths per million. A slower population growth rate as with Germany and so more older people, or short life span typical of countries where the population growth is as a result of births rather than immigration, raise the deaths per million. But then in Asia, if found there are countries the currently have a very low birth rate, but also have a very small elderly population as no long ago they had a high birth rate. Simply knowing the current birth rate and life expectancy is not sufficient, due to the rapid change in birth rates that has taken place in many countries.

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