It is almost certain Trump will hold the lead in votes counted at the end of the night on November 3. While it is possible that Trump could still hold the lead once all votes are counted, Trump is extremely unlikely take the risk that will eventuate and will instead launch legal challenges to the vote count continuing.
The rhetoric will and outrage will begin with Trump declaring that the election ended with Trump in front, and further counts are ‘fake counts’ to steal his victory.
- The voting results.
- The Trump Strategy.
- The Divided Nation following the election.
The voting results.
In my previous post (Biden vs Trump), I predicted a result sufficiently close that there would be disputes. I now believe that the only outcome that can prevent legal challenges and an uprising is the very unlikely scenario that Joe Biden is ahead in the count at the end of election night, November 3.
The larger number of Democrats voting by mail makes it extremely unlikely that Joe Biden will be ahead on this first night, but no other result will prevent Trump claiming victory, and launching a legal challenge and at least a dog whistle to call to arms the more extremist members of the electorate. While it would be possible that at the end of counting votes Trump would win the election anyway, it seems almost certain he will not wait to find out.
Failing the very unlikely scenario democrats are ahead on election night, the real Trump campaign will begin in earnest.
The Trump Strategy.
It is not a matter of whether Trump wins or Loses. Do not expect Trump to wait to find out the final result. All Trump needs is to be ahead in the count at some point, in order to declare he is the winner and further vote counts represent fraud.
The deadline for states to submit election results is December 8. Trumps strategy will most likely be to prevent as many states as possible from being able to submit votes counts by this date. Everything from legal challenges through to civil disobedience, riots and actions of armed militia could play a role. Can these steps delay count for an entire month?
The second part of the strategy relies upon Republicans retaining sufficient state majorities in congress for republicans to win a contested election vote. Repubicans would win such a vote if help with the current congress, but is possible this situation could change. Again, Trump cannot wait for an answer to this question, the tactics will begin immediately.
The Divided Nation following the election.
It is possible Trump will win the election even without successfully disrupting the count. Even more likely is the that Trumps efforts to disrupt votes being submitted by states by December 8 will fail, but that will not stop him trying. Nor will it prevent citizens who feel Trump will be ‘robbed’ of an election win from taking matters in to their own hands. Previous events are telling:
All it takes is Trump commencing his campaign to disrupt counting to ensure that, regardless of the final outcome, America is even more deeply divided that ever with a few short days from now.
It is almost certain Trump will declare he wins on election night. But perhaps Americas enemies such as Putin are the most certain winners as chaos ensues.