To examine information on climate science, or anything else really, you need to a sceptic.
In the battle to come to a conclusion on climate science there are a number of hurdles to clear. The biggest difference between people is a which step they give up and either believe, or see it as too hard. At that hurdle, many people start applying confirmation bias, just wanting to believe, others apply bias to become deniers.
Genuine sceptics keeps looking for answers.
I am by nature, a sceptic, and I am going to say that any sceptic is going to find one of the hurdles to the full climate change narrative just something we cannot clear.
I suggest even Greta Thunberg would stumble at one of the hurdles, as no matter how you look at it, something in what we are being told does not add up.
The hurdles I have cleared, to some clearing as many answers were just not readily available.
When I first heard that CO2 produced by human activities was triggering dangerous climate change, my first reaction was “that just makes no sense!” I may be against the use of use of fossil fuels in dirty and polluting ways, but surely the carbon within fossil fuels came from the atmosphere. Aren’t we just putting the CO2 back where it came from?
For some it turns out there are answers for most hurdles, but perhaps some are contradictory…..
- Sceptics or Deniers? Climate Polarisation and Extremism.
- Climate Extremism: Believers vs Deniers and Opponents.
- Sceptics vs Deniers and Opponents: Deniers are Decided, Sceptics are not.
- Scepticism: In the world of fake news, Who do you believe?
- The Obviously Questions and The Highly Implausible Claims.
- Obvious Questions Requiring Answers.
- The Obvious Questions vs The Highly Implausible Claims.
- The Obvious Questions That Require Answers.
- The Highly Implausible Claims, Requiring Some Convincing Evidence and Explanation.
- Hurdles: The Steps Required to Believe The Climate Change Narrative.
- Have Humans have raised CO2 by around 100 parts per million? (0.01% change to air)
- OK, there is data to support this, but it is a small amount.
- Temperatures have risen over 1 degree C, and this is correlates to the rise in CO2 levels?
- I do see it now having researched it, but is this change significant?
- How Is Returning CO2 that came from the air, back to the atmosphere is a problem?
- OK, now I get this one. But it was a huge step and is not well explained.
- If we do not make changes, the trend will continue, and climate disruption will increase.
- There seems to be lack of modelling on the impact of ‘changes’.
- We Are Headed For A Disaster, This is an Emergency.
- Temperatures may have changed by only 1 degree so far, but we are close to a disaster.
- It may prove a trend, but 1 degree seems ok.
- ‘Urgent’ action, such as bringing Earth to Carbon Neutrality by 2050, is justified, and can solve the problem.
- Now, I am back to sceptical. Modelling on impact of reduction measures is unconvincing.
- Have Humans have raised CO2 by around 100 parts per million? (0.01% change to air)
- Sceptic status? We Are Not Hearing the Truth.
- Conclusion: In reality, there are far more sceptics than expected.
The Labels: Climate Polarisation and Extremism.
Climate Extremism: Believers vs Sceptics and Deniers .
The title could make this unpopular page, because the word ‘sceptic’ has become a euphemism. A euphemis for people who are never satisfied.
We live in a world where social media and influence technology leverages and weaponizes confirmation bias, polarising people towards extremism, because that will get people spending more time on their web portals, and therefore increase their profits.
I declare that not all people who do not believe the climate change narrative are deniers. Here is my classification of the groups that have arisen with regard to climate change:
- Believers: May people get to hurdle they cannot clear in the climate change narrative, and decided to just believe anyway.
- People following this approach, can past every hurdle without needing to clear it, and support and accept current green policies to address climate change.
- Support for steps as proposed by the UN as being what is required to address climate change.
- Belief what they are told without question.
- If told ‘nett zero by 2050’ is sufficient, then that is what they want.
- If, and when, told more is required, then that is what they will support.
- Deniers: Find a hurdle they cannot clear and decide it is all false, and apply confirmation bias from that point on.
- This is those who do not want to believe, and will not process information that does not confirm bias towards the belief that:
- Either, no action is required on climate change.
- Or, proposed steps to combat climate change are an overreaction.
- This group are outraged by what they see as a deliberate and malevolent ‘climate change is real’ misinformation campaign. Outraged by what they see as the ‘climate change hoax’ being propagated by people with economic or social interests that are against the interests of the majority of the population.
- This is those who do not want to believe, and will not process information that does not confirm bias towards the belief that:
- True Sceptics: When stuck at a hurdle, they will keep trying to engage even with those with another view, in to get a consensus.
- Will always find there is one hurdle that is difficult to clear, because if you really do clear hurdles, eventually something does not add up
- Although reasons vary, it is unlikely any sceptic would be happy with the UN approach to the subject.
There are many ‘believers’ who label all others as deniers. If you question anything proposed in the name of preventing climate change, they you may be labelled a denier. This is because believers are themselves often polarised in their views.
Believers may declare my adopting a sceptical view as heretic. But then I may also upset ‘deniers’ by saying sceptics are not people who reject valid evidence without good reason.
Sceptics vs Pretend Sceptics, and deniers in denial.
I may offend people by using . However, anyone who believes their position is rational, and will stand scrutiny, should be open to hearing other opinions, even if only to satisfy themselves of the flaw(s) in alternative positions. Even those who are already convinced of climate change may find themselves learning some surprising new truths. So I would use the label of ‘sceptics’ for people with unanswered questions, ‘deniers’ and ‘opponents’ for people who are rejecting valid answers to their questions, simply because the answers do not fit their views. Opponents go beyond deniers, and hold a moral stance, believing that ‘believers’ include those who are guilty of deliberate fraud.
In the spirit of scepticism, it is important to consider all points of view. There is a site sceptical science that concentrates of debunking myths, but often does not give links to sources of the alternative views independently scrutinising the other side. I am actually compiling links to web sites of positions I have considered, but do not agree with:
- Ice Age Now: Not by Fire, but by Ice.
- Right: Yes, contrary to much popular opinion, we are technically in an ice age. Wrong: Being technically in an ice age does not in any way imply it is about to get colder, or that it cannot get hotter.
Note the danger of some of these alternative views is that, as indicated above, they are often part right, part wrong.
In the world of fake news, Who do you believe?
I saw an interview with Brian Cox where he pointed out that the are scientists who study climate are experts, and it makes no sense to simply form our own uninformed opinions. In this video, Brian gives the example of someone sitting on a plane who knows nothing about the engineering, forming their own opinion on how the wings should be designed differently. Another analogy is, that if we go to a doctor, and they diagnose a health problem, we don’t think “but my great Aunts’ friend Emma has another opinion”. We trust the doctor. So why not trust scientists in the same way? Both analogies sounded reasonable.
However, it is not quite that simple. Unlike the design of the airplane wing, or the visit to the doctor, we are often presented with two contrasting views, each presented by people proclaimed as experts. It is not easy to just ‘trust the experts’ when multiple people put themselves forward as the experts, and each express different views. Further, we neither fly the proto-type plane, nor enter a trial for a new medical treatment, without safety checks first and even then there is supervision and checks in place. We don’t have a second Earth to experiment on first and verify the results before we try things here.
It may be that there is a fossil fuel lobby following in the footsteps of big tobacco, and paying millions sponsoring some of these conflicting opinions, but if the strategy is to cause confusion, the strategy works. We all are left trying to deciding who are the real scientists, and who represent vested interests.
However, it turns out there is a lot of information that becomes irrefutable once investigated thoroughly.
The Obvious Questions vs The Highly Implausible Claims.
The Obvious Questions That Require Answers.
There are some obvious observations against those proposing urgent action is required to prevent catastrophic climate change, these include:
- CO2 levels are in parts per million, and are only a tiny fraction of the air, so how can the effect be significant?
- The ‘carbon’ in fossil fuels was all extracted from the air by plants, so aren’t humans are only putting the carbon back where it came from?
- CO2 in the air has been present at significantly higher levels in the past, why was there no problem back then?
- The Earth has had a relatively stable temperature, capable of adequately supporting life, for billions of years, how can that balance be disturbed simply?
In fact, modern plants have to go enormous lengths to get enough CO2, with their equivalent of lungs, their leaves, on the outside having a huge surface area. Clearly it would be better for plants if there was more CO2! Raising the CO2 levels, would help plants, and if in the process temperatures are raised by 1 or 2 degrees, how could that be a problem?
The Highly Implausible Claims, Requiring Some Convincing Evidence and Explanation.
The claims are:
- Just 1 or 2 hundred parts per million of CO2 added to the air can change the climate, when CO2 levels have clearly changed in the past.
- A temperatures change by a mere 1 or 2 degrees constitutes an ‘iceberg’ for our ship planet Earth, even though temperatures change by far more than 1 or 2 degrees every day!
Now we have air conditioning available, 1 or 2 degrees more heat should not be a problem!
The whole idea that more 1 or 2 hundred parts per million or CO2, and even 1 or 2 degrees of extra warmth is catastrophe, is ‘obviously’ an overreaction! That such changes are a problem, seems highly implausible.
Hurdles: The Steps To Answer Questions and Test The Claims.
Overall, that ‘putting the CO2 back where it came from’ is a big reason accepting global warming is problematic form me. In fact, clearly only a small fraction of the CO2 will be returned to the atmosphere, and yet it seems the Earth will be worse off than when far more CO2 was in the air?
I have arranged a set of steps to answer the questions and test claims. I start with the basic steps that I see as easiest to verify, but the first two steps I see as just building blocks. The first big hurdle I see as step 3.
The hurdles are:
- Human activity is responsible for a ‘rapid’ increase atmospheric CO2 from 300 parts per million to 400 parts per million since 1950. (Not even one of my questions, but a necessary step),
- Global Temperatures have risen by over 1 degree Celsius, and this correlates to the rise in CO2 levels. (This answers my questions 1)
- Returning CO2 to the atmosphere can cause problematic temperatures, despite CO2 levels having been much higher in the past. (This answers my questions 3 and 4).
- The rise of global average temperatures of just 1 degree Celsius, which it is said is actually a result of rising CO2 levels, is a trend that will continue.
- A one, or even two, degree Celsius change in average temperatures, is unusual rather than something that happens all the time, and brings about significant changes to climate.
- Urgent action, such as bringing Earth to Carbon Neutrality by 2050, is justified, and can solve the problem.
Hurdle 1: There is a recent rapid Rise in CO2 levels.
I suggest the most surprising information here is how low actual levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are. I think may of us not familiar with the data would have guessed CO2 in the atmosphere to be at higher concentrations, especially given we know plants require CO2 in order to breathe. However, the data is the data, and there is no reason to doubt it even if the number are lower than a lay-person might expect. Only someone with their own data, or a conspiracy theorist, or a ‘denier’ would question the data, and even among climate ‘deniers’, there appears to be no dissent on the levels of CO2.
As for humans being responsible for the increase, it is very clear humans are pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.
This ‘step 1’ is not really open to scepticism, (although surprisingly I have found reports of such scepticism) as it is simply a measurement of data, combined with the undisputed fact that many human activities emit CO2. Fortunately, I have seen also seen little evidence of denial on this point either.
Hurdle 2: Global Temperatures have risen by over 1 degree C and can be linked to CO2 levels.
A temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius. Most cities and towns experience at least 10 degrees Celsius variation every day. The sceptical response is more likely to be “just one (or even two) degree so what?” while the “denial” response tends to be “you are wrong, it was cold last week, so there is no global warming”.
I suggest that even to a sceptic, a temperate change of one or two degrees seems very believable. The only challenge is to demonstrate how such a change is a significant problem.
I also accept that anyone who disputes this temperature increase is clearly a ‘denier’ given the significance of the evidence for what, after all, is quite a small temperature change.
Further, as the graph to the right reveals, there is clearly a link between temperature and CO2. Correlation is not causation.
However, there is an no available explanation for rising temperatures to cause a rise in CO2 levels, and there is an explanation for how rising CO2 levels could cause temperatures to rise. In fact, there is effectively proof rising CO2 levels would cause temperatures to rise through the greenhouse effect.
There is no proof that are rising CO2 levels are the only cause. But without another explanation, given the strong correlation, it seems extremely likely they are a significant cause.
Hurdle 3: The Critical Step: Why We Can’t Put the CO2 Back Into the Atmosphere.
Without an explanation, maybe climate change is just cyclic, and fear of higher greenhouse gasses is just anxiety.
To me this was a critical point. This is the step where many of the general public are lost, and those who remain supporting climate change tend to ‘believers’ who believe despite not being able to answer critical questions.
Didn’t the atmosphere have even more CO2 in the past? Hasn’t it been warm before? Given there has been even way more CO2 in the past, why will it be a problem now? How big can the problem be if humanity is only returning CO2 was originally in the atmosphere, and putting it back to where it came from?
Where did the ‘Carbon’ in fossil fuel come from?
The graph of CO2 levels above, courtesy of Nasa, shows that current levels of CO2 are now the highest for ‘millennia’. Levels are now suddenly 400 parts per million, despite levels being previously below 300 parts per million for ‘millennia’. But ‘millennia’ actually means ‘thousands of years’ and on a planet that is 4 billion years old, ‘thousands of years’ is far, far short of forever. Now logic, and sufficient science knowledge to get into trouble, tells me that Oxygen in the form of O2 did not even exist in the air until plants started photosynthesis, and all the Carbon in plants, originally came from CO2 in the air. So all the CO2 in oil and coal, came originally from the air. So there must have been far more CO2 in the air billions of years ago.
Clearly if the Earth could support life for billions of years with far higher CO2, then how could a mere 400 parts per million be so bad?
Note, a ‘sceptic’ seeks to resolve the conflict, while a ‘denier’ immediately declares, “climate science is all wrong”, and ‘believer’ declares: “this is just climate denial” .
The conflict was resolved when I learnt that the Sun was originally only 70% of the current intensity. To compare temperature, you need to compare absolute temperature. A warm day of 20oC or 68oF is 293K. So at 70% of absolute heat it would be 205K which is -88oC or -126oF! In the past we needed way more CO2 to avoid freezing, but those levels from the distant past could be catastrophic today. When the Earth was younger we needed greenhouse gasses at far higher levels than today to avoid a completely frozen Earth.
So yes, the CO2 did all come from the atmosphere, but no, it is not safe to put it back, because the Sun became much brighter in the interim. Turns out it does make sense that putting back that CO2 could be disastrous once you have the facts. However, the story of the sun getting hotter and CO2 falling is a key pre-requisite to understanding this step requires, and a huge, and usually missing, part of the climate story:
- The Sun keeps getting hotter and hotter.
- CO2 levels have been dropping for billions of years to compensate for the ever hotter sun.
- Unless CO2 levels can continue to slowly fall, we fry!
- We are running low of CO2 and will run out, but we at the very least 50 million years before it is a problem
- The life supporting climate on Earth is actually fragile, and maintained by a delicate balance.
Hurdle 4: The rise of global average temperatures of just 1 degree Celsius, is a trend.
So you accept CO2 levels rose and temperatures rose. You have resolved that in the big picture, the factors driving climate, CO2 and the Sun, are finely balanced, but each move in one direction, and are not cyclic.
We have moved away from balance, but is this a trend to move away from balance, or just a wobble. Temperatures have risen, but that alone does not prove that if CO2 levels rise further, temperatures will rise further. It is not proven that temperatures will keep rising. How can you prove the future?
Sometimes as things get hotter, even more is required to heat them further. Perhaps we have reached a limit?
However, climate predictions have now been running since the 1970s, and so far, predictions seem to have, if anything, been conservative. With predictions of temperature rises so far exceeding predictions, it is difficult to ignore predictions of further temperature rises.
It does follow that if predicting temperatures on the basis of rising CO2 levels has been successful so far, then if CO2 levels continue to rise, then temperatures will continue to rise.
If fact it seems unclear if current temperatures reflect increased CO2 levels. It seems possible that current CO2 levels would cause further warming, even without further CO2 emissions. While it is difficult to be certain with future predictions, it seems a very very high probability that if emissions continue to raise CO2 levels, temperatures will rise further.
Hurdle 5: Allowing The Trend To Continue, Will Result In Disaster.
Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for years now, and consistently deadlines for action are missed, and the indicators of temperature increases has accelerated as the temperatures have been tracked further and further. But so far, the Earth keeps spinning and the wheels are not falling off.
Unless you fall at hurdles 1 or 2, you would agree there is this small increase in global CO2 and temperatures. I you accept hurdles 3 and 4, you agree that increasing CO2 further may be a problem and the trend is that problems are increasing. The question then becomes how big a problem it will become if things continue on the current path. The size of the problem determines what is justified as a response.
Revisiting the “didn’t the CO2 come from the atmosphere in the first place” brings back the “yes, but the Sun was dimmer then“. The Sun has never been this bright. We don’t have a precedent for having even current levels of CO2, together with the current brightness of the sun. I do keep hearing “the last time we has this level of CO2 was….” but information so far lacks any data on the change in the Sun over the time.
The next problem is: what is the measure of ‘disastrous’? You can measure CO2 levels, and even if deniers will not believe the stats, there is a quantitative number. You can measure global average temperature ranges. But there is no scale for ‘disastrous’.
Sea levels can rise. They have been as high as 70 metres higher in the past, and there is no evidence that the temperatures that resulted in the 70 metre rise were a disaster for the planet. Ok, it is different with a hotter Sun, and less CO2 than ever, but it does seem the Earth can survive warmer temperatures.
However, there is a compounding of problems:
- The Earth is overpopulated with humans.
- The impact of the number of humans has reduced other animal habitats and put pressure on other organisms battling for the their share of the finite resources: many species that may be necessary for a balanced environment are threatened.
- The change of temperature is noted to be unusually rapid in geological time frames, resulting in rapid changes to habitats.
- The percentage of land surface with forests is at a recent low.
But just what are the ‘disasters’? In seems somewhat vague. Sure, some humans will lose their land to rising sea levels, and given how crowded the planet is, that will be difficult, but it is not ‘survival of the planet’ level threatening. Other factors could be, but exactly how is not clear.
In the end, I am stuck at hurdle 5. I even do believe it could be disastrous, I just do not have a clear picture of what the ‘disaster’ will be.
Hurdle 6: Urgent action is required, but Carbon Neutrality by 2050, is a solution.
I could reword this hurdle as: there is a proposal that is a solution.
I watched a documentary on Bill Gates (inside Bill’s Brain, S1E2 just past 17 minutes) discussing request for funding on polio:
And I [Bill Gates] said, “I think you just asked for the most you thought you could ask for, you didn’t ask for what it is really going to take to have a high probability of success.”Bill Gates: Interview in ‘Inside Bills Brain’ on the project to eradicate polio
Was it a ‘white lie’ for the team to say needed only the amount that they asked for without, admitting they really needed more? They did they tell themselves they only needed the smaller amount of money? Is it a white lie to say ‘if the globe does not reach Carbon Neutrality by 2050 the consequences will be dire”? Or is it that Carbon Neutrality by 2050 is seen as the most that it is felt can be asked for – even though it is clear that if hurdle 5 on what is at risk is real, this goal is not enough?
I am sceptical here too, as I cannot see that Carbon neutrality by 2050 would be a solution. If you actually reach level 5 and believe in a clear disaster, the current response would be woefully inadequate. It seems most people are stumbling at level 5, so that is as far as they support their government. Not necessarily because they don’t believe there will be a ‘disaster’ if we do not act, they are just unclear on what that disaster looks like.
Sceptic status: Most Governments, Between Levels 3 and 5.
I am listening to the debate, and I hear explanations for up to and including hurdle 3.
Then, message most often gets vague.
I am no longer a ‘hurdle 3’ sceptic, as having found the explanation to my question, it now makes sense that putting CO2 that was previously in the atmosphere, back into the atmosphere could be a bad thing. Further, I am now aware of an entirely new aspect to the threat: as time goes by, keeping the Earth from overheating becomes an increasing challenge.
However I had to look to get an understanding that took me past hurdle 3.
However, hurdle 4 makes sense, but the case becomes less and less clear. I still even make hurdle 5 now, that it could be a disaster, but I don’t get what that disaster looks like.
But hurdle 6?
How can you reconcile a plea for ‘Carbon Neutrality’ by 2050 with a report that between 200 million and 1 billion people will already be displaced by 2050?
Clearly, either the response being requested is so well below what is actually needed as to effectively be “please re-arrange the deck chairs on this Titanic”, or those requesting that response are also sceptical about how the seriousness of the problem.
Conclusion: In reality, there are far more sceptics than expected.
Yet that action called for seems to be less and less.
Either things are not as bad as suggested, or the action called for is totally inadequate. One or the other.
It almost seems that the only citizen of a high profile country to take reports of the impact of climate change seriously is a teenager in Scandinavia.
The current international suggested plans to clear ‘hurdle 6’, suggest a huge amount of scepticism, or lack of conviction on hurdle 5.
It would be interesting to know what people reading this consider the possible impact of climate change to be, even in the seemingly unlikely event the globe does reach Carbon Neutrality by 2050.
Is it fair to say if many of us were not still sceptical, we would be putting more focus on the problem? I am reminded of a situation years ago when I heard an elderly lady explaining to a young child how a dog had died. “He has gone to a better place”, the lady declared in an extremely sad voice. The child asked, “If he has gone to a better place, why are you so sad?”. There was no answer, and it seemed that story of the better place for dogs was not necessarily believed.
I wonder how many of us need to put more efforts into resolving our doubts. Should we be more concerned, or is it really just an unlikely risk.